WTPQ30 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TS 2014 CHAN-HOM (2014)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 30.6N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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