WTIN20 DEMS 110824

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.10.2020



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0730 UTC
OF 11.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:



THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 03 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 11TH OCTOBER, 2020 NEAR LATITUDE 15.4ON AND LONGITUDE
86.2OE, ABOUT 400 KM SOTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149), 450 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KAKINADA (43189) AND 490 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARSAPUR
(43187).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST AROUND 1800 UTC OF 12TH OCTOBER BETWEEN NARSAPUR(43187)
AND VISHAKHAPATNAM(43149).



FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:



DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE

(IST) (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E) WIND SPEED (KMPH)



11.10.20/0830 15.4/86.2 45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION


11.10.20/1730 15.7/85.3 45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION

12.10.20/0530 16.2/84.3 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP
DEPRESSION


12.10.20/1730 16.6/83.2 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP
DEPRESSION

13.10.20/0530 16.9/82.0 45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION





AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11TH OCTOBER, THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSITY T 1.5 AND SHOWS SHEAR PATTERN. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
ARE SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. SCATTERED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION I.E.
OVER WEST CENTRAL BOB AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SYSTEM. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93OC.



A BOUY LOCATED AT 17.8ON/ 89.2OE REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE(MSLP) OF 1005.4 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 120O/
19.4 KNOTS. A SHIP LOCATED AT 14.8ON/ 84.3O E REPORTED A MSLP OF
1003.7 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 270O/ 12 KNOTS. KAKINADA
(43189) SHOWS MAXIMUM PRESSURE FALL OF 2.5HPA FOLLOWED BY 2.1 HPA
OVER NARSAPUR (43187) AND 1.9 HPA OVER VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149).





ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :





24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL



REMARKS:



THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT
THREE DAYS AND WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5 THEREAFTER WITH AMPLITUDE
REMAINING MORE THAN 1. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 5 DAYS. CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS
29- 30\U02DAC OVER ENTIRE BOB AND OVER ANDAMAN SEA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH &
CENTRAL BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA. IT IS DECREASING BECOMING ABOUT 40-50
KJ/CM2 ALONG THE ANDHRA PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS.



CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE VORTICITY IS AROUND
100X10-6SEC-1 NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 200
HPA LEVEL. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5SEC-1 NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 20X10-5SEC-1 TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS 10-15
KTS OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS
. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 250N OVER NORTHEAST INDIA.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE
SYSTEM REGION.



MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS AND CROSS NORTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AROUND 1800 UTC OF 12TH OCTOBER 2020.=
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