WTPQ30 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR STS 2014 CHAN-HOM (2014)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 31.3N, 134.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
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