197
WTNT35 KNHC 051454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...GAMMA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
YUCATAN TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
YUCATAN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 87.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected to occur later today somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 87.6 West. Gamma is
drifting toward the south-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
toward the southwest or west-southwest is expected by tonight, and
this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday
morning. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move
inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday
night and remain inland through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected to degenerate
to a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Dissipation of the
low should occur on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan,
Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce significant flash
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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