598
WTNT31 KNHC 051452
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
province of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning was also been
issued for the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward
motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica
later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday,
and approach western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is
forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane on
Tuesday before it nears western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south
coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth
beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could
lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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