845
WTNT35 KNHC 041744
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NNE OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Gamma is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion
with a further decrease in forward speed is expected today. Gamma
should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday, and
a slow southwestward motion should continue Monday night through
early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will
meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the
extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just
offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this evening.
Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday
and continue into Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of
northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This
rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding.

Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain
is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 4 to 6 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another remote area of
heavy rain associated with Gamma is expected to bring additional
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches in southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region
between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest
Nicaragua.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan
through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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