WTPN21 PHNC 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 104.4W TO 13.9N 107.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 104.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6N 104.5W, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281206Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 94E IS
EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94E WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z.//
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