WTPN21 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3N 159.7E TO 25.1N 155.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 159.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 160.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.7E, APPROXIMATELY
391 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 260742Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT
WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW HINDERING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 97W IS EXPERIENCING LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE; HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270900Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTPN21 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5N 139.9E TO 24.6N 137.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 139.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8N 139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY
201 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DESPITE THE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 040404Z
AMSR2 36GHZ AND 040646Z SSMIS 37GHZ RETRIEVALS. FURTHERMORE, DATA
FROM A 032352Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FURTHER DEPICTS 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGER, 20-30 KTS WINDS
DISPLACED > 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 90W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS PREDICT
A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE ECMWF AND UKMET CALCULATE
WESTWARD SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
BIFURCATE, SUGGESTING BOTH MODELS CONSIDER THE DISPARATE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THIS DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050900Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)