WTIN20 DEMS 160537
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES,
NEW DELHI TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 16.09.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
16.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 16.09.2020.

BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS BECOME LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
NOW LIES OVER TELANGANA & ADJOINING SOUTH CHHATTISGARH. SCATTERED
LOW/ MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
LAYOVER TELANGANA AND ADJOINING COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND
NEIGHBORHOOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL & NEIGHBOURHOOD AROUND 20TH SEPTEMBER, 2020.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAYOVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW/ MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAYOVER REST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL

ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAYOVER EASTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


REMARKS: NIL=
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WTIN20 DEMS 111522
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES,
NEW DELHI SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.10.2020



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120
HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 11.10.2020 BASED ON 1200 UTC
OF 11.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:



THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH OCTOBER, 2020
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5ON AND LONGITUDE 85.4OE, ABOUT 330 KM SOTH-
SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149), 370 KM SOUTHEAST OF KAKINADA
(43189) AND 400 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARSAPUR (43187).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AROUND 1800 UTC OF 12TH OCTOBER BETWEEN
NARSAPUR(43187) AND VISHAKHAPATNAM(43149).



FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:



DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
(UTC) (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E) WIND SPEED (KMPH) CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE



11.10.20/1200 15.5/85.4 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION

12.10.20/0000 15.9/84.3 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION

12.10.20/1200 16.2/83.1 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION

13.10.20/0000 16.6/81.5 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION

13.10.20/1200 17.0/80.1 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 WELL MARKED LOW



AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 11TH OCTOBER,
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSITY T 1.5 AND SHOWS SHEAR PATTERN.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION I.E. OVER WEST CENTRAL BOB AND ADJOINING
EAST CENTRAL BOB. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93OC.



A BOUY(23091) REPORTED A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE(MSLP) OF 1000.8HPA
AND MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 120O/ 18 KNOTS. A SHIP LOCATED
AT 14.5ON/ 83.9O E REPORTED A MSLP OF 999.9 HPA AND MEAN SURFACE
WIND SPEED OF 280O/ 21 KNOTS. VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149) SHOWS MAXIMUM
PRESSURE FALL OF 3.4HPA FOLLOWED BY 2.5 HPA OVER KAKINADA (43189).





ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY
OVER CETNRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
120 HRS :


24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL







REMARKS:



THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE
4 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR
NEXT THREE DAYS AND WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5 THEREAFTER WITH AMPLITUDE
REMAINING MORE THAN 1. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT
5 DAYS. CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29- 30\U02DAC OVER ENTIRE BOB AND OVER
ANDAMAN SEA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS 80-90 KJ/CM2
OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH & CENTRAL BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA.
IT IS DECREASING BECOMING ABOUT 40-50 KJ/CM2 ALONG THE ANDHRA
PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS.



CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE VORTICITY IS
AROUND 100X10-6SEC-1 NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL

EXTENSION UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT
20X10-5SEC-1 TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5SEC-1 TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW 5-10 KTS OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB
AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS. THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 250N OVER NORTHEAST INDIA.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE
SYSTEM REGION.



MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT DAYS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST AROUND 1800 UTC OF 12TH OCTOBER 2020.=
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