053
WTNT32 KNHC 122045
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 58.5W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 58.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous
hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to
Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to
6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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