211
AWIO20 FMEE 121107

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2020/09/12 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The convective activity is relatively weak in the western part of the basin, but a little stronger in the far east of the basin, on the edge of a large clockwise circulation at the border of our zone of responsibility. The latest ASCAT passes do not show any significant improvement in the structure, especially on the equatorial side.

This weak system should enter our AoR in the next few hours. Despite a good upper divergence, the strong east north-easterly then westerly vertical wind shear, and the absence of surface feeding on the north side should prevent any significant development. All the main synoptic models are in agreement with this scenario.

Further south, early next week, within a baroclinic trough, a minimum could very temporarily encounter more favourable conditions for a subtropical deepening thanks to a decrease in shear. Nevertheless, sea temperatures below 20oC seem too cool to favour such a scenario. The risk of the formation of a subtropical depression therefore remains almost nil.

There is no risk of a moderate tropical storm forming over the next 5 days in the basin.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 60% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)