ACUS03 KWNS 120706
SWODY3
SPC AC 120704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper level ridge will envelop much of the CONUS by Day
3/Monday. At the surface, strong surface high pressure over the
Upper Midwest will develop eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and
northeastern U.S. This will confine richer boundary-layer moisture
to the Gulf Coast states and Carolinas, where isolated to scattered
diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible. Poor lapse rates
will limit instability and weak shear will favor disorganized
pulse-type convection. Further west beneath the upper ridge, modest boundary-layer moisture will overspread portions of the AZ/NM and
isolated, high-based thunderstorms also will be possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast
as current T.D. 19 is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
approach the MS/AL and southeastern LA coasts Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings along the central Gulf Coast
appear unfavorable for tropical cyclone-related tornado activity at
this time.

..Leitman.. 09/12/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 130717
SWODY3
SPC AC 130716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm activity will mainly be confined to southeastern
portions of the United States on Tuesday. An upper ridge will be
maintained across the western states while an strengthening upper
trough over central Canada slowly dips southward toward the
north-central U.S. At the surface, low pressure will develop
eastward along the international border from ND/MN to the
Ontario/Quebec border by Wednesday morning. A cold front will track south/southeast late in the period across the northern Plains and
into the Upper Midwest. However, little precipitation is expected
with this system due to a rather dry airmass in place.

Across the central Gulf Coast vicinity, the National Hurricane
Center has current Tropical Storm Sally (forecast to be a hurricane
on Day 3/Tue) moving north/northwest very slowly across far
southeast LA into southern MS on Tuesday. While some tropical
cyclone-related tornado threat could develop in the northeastern
quadrant of this system across parts of southern MS and perhaps into
southern AL, uncertainty in the exact track and extent of favorable
low level wind/bouyancy fields will preclude probabilities at this
time.

..Leitman.. 09/13/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 140718
SWODY3
SPC AC 140717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclone Sally are possible
across portions of the north-central Gulf Coast and Deep South on
Wednesday.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Though important differences remain in latest model guidance, the
general consensus is that Tropical Cyclone Sally will migrate very
slowly inland across portions of Mississippi/Alabama through early
Thursday. Strong low-level shear will be present along and east of
the cyclone center, and a mix of convective bands and cells are also
likely to be present within that airmass. Pending development of
sufficient low-level buoyancy, a few tornadoes and damaging,
convective wind gusts are likely to occur - especially within the
Marginal area across southeastern Mississippi into Alabama. It is
entirely possible that the areas of greatest severe risk will shift
in later outlook updates pending intensity and eventual track of
Sally.

..Cook.. 09/14/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 160659
SWODY3
SPC AC 160658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Friday.

...Synopsis...
A cold front will extend from the far northwestern Atlantic
(offshore the New England coast) southwestward to northern Florida
and the northern Gulf of Mexico during the forecast period, with
much of the central and eastern U.S. under the influence of high
pressure and relatively stable low-level conditions. Deep
convection may occur in areas ahead of the front across the
Southeast where low-level moisture/buoyancy exists, though weak
shear and modest instability should keep most storms below severe
levels. A few lightning flashes may also occur with convection
ahead of a strong mid-level wave traversing the Pacific Northwest,
though sparse coverage and weak instability aloft should keep any
severe threat low in these areas through the forecast period.

..Cook.. 09/16/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 180723
SWODY3
SPC AC 180722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe potential associated with a tropical cyclone over the
western Gulf of Mexico appears too limited and uncertain at this
time to include low severe probabilities for Sunday across any
portion of coastal Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A tropical cyclone is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
remain over the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday while moving slowly
westward. 00Z deterministic guidance is in general agreement with
this scenario, but considerable uncertainty exists with how close
the system will approach the TX Coast, particularly by Sunday night.
It appears possible that low-level north-northeasterly winds may
increase across this area through the period, with a corresponding
increase in low-level shear. However, greater low-level moisture
associated with this system may remain over the Gulf, limiting
inland destabilization. No severe probabilities have been included
along coastal TX given these uncertainties and potentially limiting
factors.

Farther north, an upper trough is forecast to move northeastward
from the northern Plains across parts of the Upper Midwest and into
central Canada though the period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
Sunday across these areas along/ahead of an eastward-moving cold
front. Although steep mid-level level lapse rates should be present
across the warm sector, limited low-level moisture will likely keep
instability rather weak. Overall thunderstorm coverage is also
uncertain, as a low-level inversion may hinder convective
initiation.

..Gleason.. 09/18/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 190727
SWODY3
SPC AC 190726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A threat for a tornado or two may exist across parts of the
middle/upper Texas Coast on Monday in association with Tropical
Cyclone Beta.

...Coastal Texas...
Tropical Cyclone Beta is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to approach the TX Coast as a hurricane on Monday, with a northward
turn along/near the coast Monday night. Some 00Z guidance suggests
that mid to perhaps upper 70s surface dewpoints will spread inland
across parts of the middle/upper TX Coast through the period. Strong
low-level shear should also be present, mainly in the northeastern
quadrant of Beta's circulation. With that said, there is still
considerable uncertainty regarding the placement of Beta on Monday,
and a more eastward position over the Gulf of Mexico would reduce
the chance for greater low-level moisture to move onshore and lessen
the corresponding severe potential. Even with this uncertainty,
there is enough of a signal in various deterministic guidance that a
favorable overlap of modest instability and enhanced
east-southeasterly low-level winds should occur somewhere along the middle/upper TX Coast Monday into Monday night. If this scenario
occurs, then isolated low-topped supercells in outer rain bands
capable of producing a tornado or two appear possible. 5% severe
probabilities and a Marginal Risk have therefore been included to
account for this potential.

..Gleason.. 09/19/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 200728
SWODY3
SPC AC 200726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe potential associated with Tropical Cyclone Beta appears
too limited on Tuesday to include any severe probabilities across
southeastern Texas or Louisiana at this time.

...Southeastern Texas into Louisiana...
Tropical Storm Beta should be located along/near some portion of the
middle TX Coast Tuesday morning per latest NHC forecast. Most 00Z
guidance indicates that Beta will remain over land while slowly
weakening through the period. The low-level wind field associated
with Beta should likewise slowly diminish through Tuesday afternoon,
with southeasterly 850-mb winds around 15-25 kt across southeastern
TX and LA. The flow field should further weaken through mid levels.
The forecast vertical wind profile across this region appears quite
marginal to support organized storms. Dry low/mid-level air is also
forecast to wrap around the eastern half of Beta's circulation,
which may further hinder already weak forecast instability. At this
point, there appear to be too many limiting factors to include any
severe probabilities across southeastern TX and LA for Tuesday, but
this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Northern Plains...
Farther north, a shortwave trough embedded within mid-level westerly
flow is forecast to move eastward along the U.S./Canada border from
the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains through the period.
Low-level moisture is forecast to remain quite meager ahead of this
feature until it reaches the vicinity of ND late Tuesday night,
where low to mid 50s surface dewpoints may be present. A modest
southerly low-level jet along with a southeastward-surging cold
front may aid convective initiation late Tuesday across northern ND
into south-central Canada. Steep mid-level lapse rates should also
be present over this region, and potential exists for mainly
elevated storms to produce some hail given the forecast combination
of weak to locally moderate instability with strong deep-layer
shear. Regardless, will defer inclusion of any severe probabilities
across northern ND for now, as guidance differs on both the degree
of low-level moisture present and overall storm coverage.

..Gleason.. 09/20/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 210729
SWODY3
SPC AC 210728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Wednesday.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Large differences are apparent between the 00Z deterministic
GFS/ECMWF and NAM regarding the placement of Tropical Cyclone Beta
on Wednesday. The NAM appears to be an outlier compared to other
guidance in bringing Beta inland across the lower MS Valley in
tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough. Most other guidance
suggests that Beta will remain much farther south, and perhaps even
off the LA Coast through at least Wednesday evening. Some severe
potential may exist across portions of the lower MS Valley if the
NAM solution verifies and greater low-level moisture advances
inland. However, it currently appears more likely that appreciable destabilization Wednesday afternoon will remain confined to the
immediate coastal LA region. Low-level flow across the warm sector
is also forecast to remain quite weak (generally 25 kt or less).
This weak shear should limit the severe risk across coastal LA, and
no probabilities have been included at this time.

...Upper Midwest...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within quasi-zonal
mid-level westerly flow should advance east-southeastward from the
northern Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period. Elevated
storms that may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of ND
should diminish through the day. Additional convection may form
along a weak surface front across parts of northern MN/WI, mainly
Wednesday evening/night. Current expectations are for this activity
to remain elevated, as limited low-level moisture and substantial
convective inhibition to the south of the front will probably limit
the potential for surface-based storms. Although some small hail
cannot be ruled out with the strong shear forecast, instability
should remain too weak to support an organized severe risk.

...Pacific Northwest...
A large-scale upper trough with strong mid-level jet should move
eastward across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Strong
deep-layer shear should be present, but instability is forecast to
remain quite weak. While isolated thunderstorms appear possible, the
overall severe threat should remain low owing to the limited
instability.

..Gleason.. 09/21/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 230727
SWODY3
SPC AC 230726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Friday across
parts of the Upper Midwest appears too uncertain to include any risk
areas at this time.

...Upper Midwest...
A strong westerly mid/upper-level jet is forecast to persist on
Friday across much of the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies
and north-central states. A shortwave trough embedded within this
flow regime should move eastward across the Upper Midwest through
the period. At the surface, a cold front will likewise sweep
eastward across this region, with a modest increase in low-level
moisture occurring ahead of the front across parts of eastern MN
into western WI and vicinity. At this point, most guidance suggests
that warm mid-level temperatures preceding the shortwave trough will
keep the warm sector capped through the day. Still, there is a
non-zero chance that near-surface-based storms could form along or
just ahead of the front across parts of east-central MN into
northwestern WI by Friday evening. If this occurs, then severe
thunderstorms appear possible given the forecast combination of weak instability with strong deep-layer shear. However, the more probable
scenario is for mainly elevated storms to form north of the warm
sector Friday evening/night in a low-level warm advection regime,
with a minimal severe risk farther south. Given these uncertainties
and model differences, have opted to defer possible inclusion of low
severe probabilities across this region to a later outlook.

...Southeast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur across a broad portion
of the Southeast on Friday as a weak, positively tilted shortwave
trough moves eastward over this region. Although mid-level
southwesterly flow should be modestly enhanced, the lack of any
discernible surface low, poor mid-level lapse rates, and weak
instability all suggest that any organized severe thunderstorm risk
should remain low.

..Gleason.. 09/23/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 240726
SWODY3
SPC AC 240726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Saturday across
parts of the Upper Midwest appears too uncertain to include any
severe probabilities at this time.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing should amplify over the north-central
CONUS on Saturday. A strong west-southwesterly mid/upper-level jet
will overspread much of the Upper Midwest by Saturday evening.
Forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough should also encourage
the northeastward development of a surface low across this region
through the period. Low-level moisture will likely remain rather
limited, which should temper the amount of instability available
across the warm sector in WI. Still, strong effective bulk shear
will be present owing to the mid/upper-level jet. Current
expectations are for storm initiation to be delayed until Saturday
evening as lift increases with a strengthening low-level jet. Any
storms that form will probably remain elevated, but they could pose
some threat for hail. Primary uncertainty remains the best corridor
for this elevated storm development. Some guidance suggests storms
over northern WI into the U.P. of MI, while other models indicate a
better chance over central/eastern WI. Given this uncertainty and
the fairly limited instability forecast, will defer possible
inclusion of low severe probabilities to a later outlook update.

Elsewhere, any storms that may be ongoing Saturday morning along
parts of the East Coast should move offshore through the day, as a
weak mid-level trough continues eastward. Severe thunderstorms
appear unlikely across this region.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 250629
SWODY3
SPC AC 250628

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail is possible late Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening across northern portions of the southern Plains and adjacent
Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Overall upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant
amplification on Sunday as a strong shortwave trough digs
southeastward from the northern Rockies through the central Plains.
A cold front is expected to extend from northern Lower MI
southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle early Sunday. The
overall evolution of the upper pattern is expected to induce a southward/southeastward surge of this cold front throughout the day.
By Sunday evening, this cold front will likely extend from Lake Erie southwestward into the TX Permian Basin.

Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along this front, from the
Upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains. Relatively warm and
moist conditions are anticipated across the southern Plains and
Ozark Plateau ahead of the front. However, warm mid-level
temperatures will likely preclude the development of open warm
sector storms. Even so, storms are anticipated along and behind the
front, particularly as it moves into the southern Plains,
interacting with more buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet.
Progressive nature of the cold front will likely contribute to the
development of predominantly elevated storms. Moderate vertical
shear could result in a few updrafts capable of producing hail.

..Mosier.. 09/25/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 260658
SWODY3
SPC AC 260657

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible along a cold front as it moves across the
southern Plains and Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern will continue to amplify on Monday as troughing across
the central and eastern CONUS deepens further while gradually moving
eastward and western CONUS ridging also expands eastward. Strong
mid-level flow is forecast to exist throughout the base of this
trough, arcing from the High Plains southward into the southern
Plains and then back northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes.

Cold front along the leading edge of the continental air mass
associated with the upper trough will likely extend from
southwestern Ontario southwestward into the TX Hill Country early
Monday morning. Continued eastward/southeastward progression of this
front is forecast throughout the day, with the front expected to
extend from a low over the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward
into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening.

...Mid/Upper OH Valley...
Modest low-level moisture and deep southwesterly flow may contribute
to a few more robust updrafts near the cold front as it gradually
pushes eastward across the region. However, low forecast confidence
regarding the frontal position, as well as the potential for
preceding cloud cover to limit the extent of destabilization ahead
of the front, result in too much uncertainty to introduce any
probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 09/26/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 270714
SWODY3
SPC AC 270713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from Quebec into the Lower
MS Valley early Tuesday morning. An upper low embedded within this
larger trough is expected to gradually move from the middle MS
Valley southeastward through the Southeast. Southerly mid-level flow
will increase ahead of this low from GA through the Mid-Atlantic.
Progression of this upper low will aid in the development of a
modest surface low along a front initially extending from the
Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the central FL Panhandle. This
surface low will likely track northeastward along the front while
the front gradually moves eastward. Some deepening of this surface
low is possible, resulting in modest moisture advection amid southerly/southeasterly surface wind.

This overall pattern evolution will place a modestly moist and
unstable air mass across the Mid-Atlantic states ahead of the
approaching cold front (and parent upper trough). Previously
mentioned strengthening low to mid-level winds ahead of the
approaching upper low atop modest southerly/southeasterly surface
winds will contribute to at least moderate vertical shear. While
some uncertainties remain, including the amount of destabilization
as well as the strength of the surface low and frontal position, the environment appears likely to support at least low severe potential.
Refinement to this outlook area are likely in subsequent forecasts.

..Mosier.. 09/27/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 280645
SWODY3
SPC AC 280644

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mature upper cyclone is forecast to be centered near the AL/GA
border early Wednesday morning, within the base of broad upper
troughing covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. This upper
low is expected to move northeastward through the Carolinas
throughout the day and off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday
morning. Surface low associated with this upper cyclone will likely
begin the period over SC before gradually moving northeastward off
the NC coast by Wednesday evening. Some modest low-level moisture
may be in place ahead of this low, but lapse rates will be poor and
widespread clouds and precipitation will limit heating.
Consequently, buoyancy is expected to be modest, limiting the
potential for persistent and deep updrafts. There is a low
probability that enough of a warm sector will remain onshore ahead
of the surface low, resulting in a thermodynamic environment more
supportive of severe thunderstorms. However, that scenario is not
currently supported by the most recent guidance.

Elsewhere, a stable continental air mass will be in place across
most of the central and eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorms
development. The only exception is across the Upper Great Lakes
where cold air aloft associated with a shortwave trough moving
through the upper trough will contribute to marginal buoyancy. Upper
ridging will remain in place from central Mexico into the Pacific
Northwest.

..Mosier.. 09/28/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 290703
SWODY3
SPC AC 290702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough upper pattern
is forecast to persist on Thursday. A shortwave trough embedded
within the moderate to strong cyclonic upper flow is expected to
move through the mid MS and OH Valleys. A stable, continental air
mass will follow in its wake, helping to reinforce the stable air
mass already expected to be in place across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. This stable air mass will preclude thunderstorms
across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exceptions
are across the Upper Great Lakes region (particularly over Lake
Michigan and Lake Erie), where cold temperatures aloft will support
modest instability and the potential for isolated lightning flashes,
and across southern FL, where a moist air mass remains in place.

Expansive upper ridging extending from the Pacific Northwest into
central Mexico will persist throughout the period. Dry and stable
conditions associated with this ridging will preclude thunderstorms
across the western CONUS.

..Mosier.. 09/29/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 300711
SWODY3
SPC AC 300710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Broad and deep eastern CONUS upper troughing which will have
persisted throughout much of the week is expected to remain in place
on Friday. An embedded shortwave will likely move through the
Northeast by early Friday evening while another shortwave trough is
expected to drop southward through the northern Plains, reaching the
central Plains by early Saturday morning. Progression of these
shortwaves will help maintain stable conditions across much of the
central and eastern CONUS. The only exceptions are across south FL,
where modest low-level moisture may contribute to isolated
thunderstorms ahead of slow-moving front, and over the Lower Great
Lakes where cold temperatures aloft could result a flash or two.
Coverage over the Lower Great Lakes is currently expected to be less
than 10%.

Upper ridging over the western CONUS may dampen somewhat as a
compact shortwave trough moves through its northwestern periphery.
Even so, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 09/30/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 010703
SWODY3
SPC AC 010702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across northern portions of
the southern Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair of shortwave troughs will likely be moving through the
southwestern periphery of the expansive upper trough over the
central and eastern CONUS early Saturday morning. The lead wave will
be over the mid MS Valley and is forecast to quickly lose amplitude
as it moves eastward across the OH Valley. The second shortwave will
likely be over the central Plains early Saturday and is expected to
move southeastward across the Lower MO Valley and into the TN Valley
throughout the day.

Progression of these shortwaves will help push a cold front
southward through much of the southern Plains by early Sunday
morning. Modest low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of
this cold front, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching into northern
portions of the southern Plains. This moisture advection combined
with boundary layer mixing and steep mid-level lapse rates will
result in modest instability and the potential for thunderstorms
along the front across OK and adjacent portions of western AR and TX
Red River vicinity. This region will be on the edge of the stronger
flow aloft, resulting in moderate vertical shear supportive of a few
stronger storms. However, modest instability is currently expected
to limit overall severe thunderstorm coverage.

..Mosier.. 10/01/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 020641
SWODY3
SPC AC 020640

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow across much of North America appears likely to
continue to trend less amplified; but, models indicate that
large-scale ridging will persist across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific into western North America, with large-scale troughing east
of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Embedded within this
regime, there may be several short wave perturbations comprising
more substantive troughing across the Upper Midwest into the lower
Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. This is forecast to
remain progressive, as a vigorous upstream short wave impulse digs
across the Canadian Prairies. However, models indicate that the
smaller-scale perturbations may trend out of phase. The southern
portion of the remnant troughing may become most prominent, with
perhaps the most vigorous impulse pivoting across parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians Sunday through
Sunday night.

A reinforcing low-level cool intrusion and subsidence in the wake of
the lead mid-level troughing probably will contribute to
diminishment of initially low convective potential over the interior
U.S. Sunday. There could still be some lingering risk for
convection capable of producing lightning, beneath the mid-level
cold pool across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. However, model spread concerning the smaller-scale
mid-level perturbations is sizable. Coupled with the weak nature of
the potential instability, and probable sparse thunderstorm
coverage, any risk for thunderstorms at this point still seems less
than 10 percent.

Otherwise, seasonably moist conditions likely will remain confined
to a narrow plume along a remnant frontal zone across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico into areas near/east of the southern Mid
Atlantic coast. This may contribute to at least low probabilities
for thunderstorms across parts of the Florida Peninsula; but, models
indicate that substantive boundary-layer moisture and instability
will remain confined to areas near and east of the
southeastern/eastern Florida Atlantic coast.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 030631
SWODY3
SPC AC 030630

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that broad mid-level ridging within the mid-latitude
westerlies will develop inland of the Pacific coast, across and east
of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies during this period.
Downstream flow across much of the remainder of the northern and
central tier of the U.S. appears likely to remain more or less
zonal, with a number of embedded, progressive short wave troughs.
This includes one significant perturbation forecast to accelerate
east of the northern Mid Atlantic coast, and support further surface
wave development along a front across the western Atlantic.

In the wake of these features, mid-level subtropical ridging may
become a bit more prominent across Florida and the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In lower levels, models suggest that the surface frontal
zone will weaken and redevelop northward across the Peninsula into
northern Florida. As the boundary layer continues to moisten,
destabilization aided by daytime heating across parts of the
Peninsula may contribute to at least some potential for a few
thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to
prevail, with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/03/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 040631
SWODY3
SPC AC 040630

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Tuesday through
Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Broad, large-scale ridging appears likely to persist within the
mid-latitude westerlies across the northeastern Pacific through
western portions of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great
Plains. Models indicate that there could be some amplification of
this ridging, downstream of digging troughing. More significantly,
to the east of the ridging, a vigorous short wave impulse is
forecast to rapidly dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies, through
the upper Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. This may be
accompanied by a 100+ kt northwesterly mid-level jet and a deepening
surface cyclone. While there will be little available low-level
moisture, destabilization beneath cold mid-level air, to the north
of the cyclonic jet, may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm
development near the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes international border
area late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Seasonably moist conditions likely will remain confined to areas
along and south of a persistent frontal zone approaching
northwestern Gulf coastal areas, while remaining quasi-stationary
across northern Florida into the western Atlantic. Beneath
mid-level subtropical ridging, it appears that daytime heating will
contribute to moderate boundary-layer destabilization across the
Florida Peninsula. This could support at least some potential for a
few afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

..Kerr.. 10/04/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 050650
SWODY3
SPC AC 050649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...PARTS OF
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may overspread parts of Upstate New York through
northern New England Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by
a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong mid/upper jet across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific appears likely to become more zonal while nosing into the
northeastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, within
branching downstream flow across North America, another modestly
amplified, strong mid/upper jet is forecast to progress eastward
across Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. This will include
broad ridging gradually shifting east of the Canadian Rockies,
through the Canadian Prairies, and broad troughing shifting across
eastern Canada and the Northeast.

In lower latitudes, mid/upper ridging will persist across the
subtropical western Atlantic into Florida and adjacent portions of
the Southeast, with several tropical perturbations progressing
around its southern/southwestern periphery. It appears that this
will include a hurricane (currently Tropical Depression Twenty-Six)
migrating slowly northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico,
within a plume of tropical moisture largely confined to the Gulf of
Mexico.

Within the westerlies, a strong short wave perturbation, including a
100 kt northwesterly mid-level (around 500 mb) jet streak, is
forecast to dig east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes region,
before turning eastward across New England by Wednesday night. It
appears that this will be accompanied by substantial further
deepening of a surface cyclone, across southern Quebec through the
Canadian Maritimes.

Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in the wake of the
mid-level perturbation, cold surface ridging is forecast to build
across and east of the Mississippi Valley, and southward into the
Gulf Coast states, by late Wednesday night. This will contribute to
the maintenance of dry and/or stable conditions across most areas
east of the Rockies.

...Upstate New York into northern New England...
Boundary-layer moisture within the warm sector of the surface
cyclone likely will be rather marginal for vigorous convective
development. However, thermodynamic profiles probably will become
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, aided by
forcing for ascent and cooling to the north of the strong cyclonic
mid-level jet. Even with mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 250-500
J/kg, storms may become sufficiently strong to aid the downward
transfer of higher momentum to the surface. With model forecast
soundings indicating 40-50+ kt mean ambient flow in the lowest 5-6
km AGL, at least a few gusts exceeding severe limits appear
possible. This may commence on the nose of a developing mid-level
dry slot east of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon, before spreading
eastward across parts of northern New England by Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 10/05/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 060641
SWODY3
SPC AC 060640

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A strong, zonal mid/upper jet appears likely to continue gradually
propagating across the northern mid-latitude Pacific, with its exit
region perhaps approaching British Columbia/Pacific Northwest
coastal areas toward the end of the period. Within one belt of
branching downstream flow, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to
gradually shift eastward across the Canadian Prairies and adjacent international border area, while similar amplitude downstream
troughing progresses across the northern Atlantic coast.

In another branch, a short wave trough and compact embedded
mid-level low may approach northern California coastal areas, with
broad downstream ridging across the Great Basin and Rockies into
Upper Midwest remaining largely in phase with the ridging to the
north.

In lower latitudes, mid/upper subtropical ridging likely will be
maintained across the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and
adjacent portions of the Southeast. While weak troughing may begin
progressing around its northwestern periphery, across the Rio Grande
Valley into Texas, a couple of tropical perturbations will continue
progressing within the lower-level easterlies on its
southern/southwestern periphery. This will include Hurricane Delta,
which may gradually turn north/northeastward, toward the north
central Gulf coast, ahead of the mid/upper troughing.

At least some model output appears weaker with cold surface ridging
initially encompassing most areas across and east of the Mississippi
Valley, including much of the Gulf Coast states, at the outset of
the period. However, this feature is forecast to be generally
maintained through the period, though with its center shifting from
the Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity into the Mid Atlantic.

Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow likely will maintain
relatively dry/potentially cool boundary-layer air across much of
the Gulf Coast states. While there may be a substantive elevated
moisture influx ahead of Delta, accompanied by increasing
precipitation and embedded convection across much of Louisiana,
Mississippi and Alabama Thursday through Thursday night, warm and
moist mid-levels with weak lapse rates are expected to minimize the
risk for lightning.

..Kerr.. 10/06/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 070716
SWODY3
SPC AC 070715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
At least some risk for tornadoes may accompany the landfall of
Hurricane Delta, across parts of the southeastern Louisiana,
southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama coastal plain, mainly
Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Amplification within the westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific
into North America may commence during this period. This may
include a digging mid-level trough to the west of the Pacific
Northwest coast, and building large-scale ridging across the
Canadian/U.S. Rockies through the Canadian Prairies and much of the
Great Plains. In a lingering branch split off to the south of the
stronger flow, weaker mid-level troughing is forecast to shift into
the Southwest, perhaps with an embedded closed low migrating into
southern California by late Friday night.

Downstream, Hurricane Delta is forecast to accelerate
north-northeastward, inland of the northwestern Gulf coast by Friday
evening, with the mid-level circulation center gradually becoming
absorbed within weak troughing slowly shifting east of the southern
Great Plains. This probably will be accompanied by the influx of
seasonably high precipitable water content within a plume across and
just east of the lower Mississippi Valley. However, relatively dry/ potentially cool boundary-layer air as far south as the Gulf coastal
plain early Friday may be slow to substantively modify.

...Gulf Coast...
Latest model output generally suggests that surface dew points near
or just above 70F may initially be confined to immediate coastal
areas, perhaps inland some across parts of southeastern Louisiana,
to the north of Hurricane Delta at the outset of the period. Across
the remainder of the Gulf coastal plain, surface dew points may
generally be in the mid/upper 60s F, with mid 70s+ F mostly well
offshore across the western Gulf of Mexico. Given the warm
mid-level environment advecting inland with Delta, mid 70s F surface
dew points will probably need to be advected inland to contribute to
sufficient boundary-layer destabilization to support an appreciable
risk for tornadoes, northeast and east of the inland migrating
low-level circulation center. At this time, most guidance suggests
that lower 70s F dew points may be advected inland in a small/narrow
plume wrapping into the circulation center, across parts of
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and adjacent
southwestern Alabama, with mid 70s F dew points lagging near/south
of immediate coastal areas. Given the forecast strength of the
system as it approaches landfall, it is possible that this is
underdone, but the risk for tornadoes with Delta still seems largely conditional at this time.

..Kerr.. 10/07/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
The weakening remnants of Delta may continue to contribute to a risk
for a couple of tornadoes and strong wind gusts across parts of the
central Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Strong thunderstorms may
also impact Upstate New York into portions of northern New England,
posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail.

...Synopsis...
A belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific appears
likely to become increasingly amplified across Canada and the
northern tier of the U.S. through this period. This appears likely
to include a digging mid-level trough inland of the Pacific coast
and across the northern intermountain region, accompanied by surface cyclogenesis within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late Saturday night.

Downstream troughing is also forecast to amplify to the east and
southeast of Hudson Bay, with a lead embedded short wave trough
digging across southern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes. This is
forecast to be accompanied by a deep surface cyclone, with another
cold front advancing across New York state and New England by the
end of the period.

Within a weaker branch of westerlies across the southern tier of the
U.S., mid-level troughing, including the remnants of Delta, likely
will continue to slowly shift east-northeast of the lower
Mississippi Valley. Most guidance indicates substantial rapid
weakening of the associated surface cyclone as it migrates
northeastward out of northeastern Louisiana through northwestern
Mississippi.

...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valley vicinity...
An initially narrow plume of lower 70s surface dew points, wrapping
into the low-level circulation center of Delta, may broaden
northeastward across much of Mississippi and Alabama through the
day. This is where the strongest southerly 850 mb flow will
contribute to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs most
conducive to tornado potential. However, the extent of this
potential Saturday remains unclear, as the peak wind fields weaken,
and warm mid-levels limit boundary-layer destabilization. Still,
there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient warming to
destabilize the boundary layer before low-level wind fields weaken
and hodographs shrink too much, to allow the environment to become
conducive to a few low-topped supercells capable of producing
tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts.

...Upstate New York into northern New England...
To the south of the digging short wave impulse, models suggest that
a narrow plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air may advect into the
region by the beginning of the period, as boundary-layer moistening
proceeds ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front. The NAM
appears most aggressive with this moistening, and it may be too
moist. However, there appears potential for sufficient pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, with daytime heating, to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon.
Near the southeastern periphery of the digging mid-level trough,
30-50+ kt flow in the 850-500 mb layer may contribute to the risk
for organized storms capable of producing potentially damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Kerr.. 10/08/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 090729
SWODY3
SPC AC 090728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across
parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with marginally
severe thunderstorms also possible across parts of the Southeast.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A large-scale upper trough over western Canada and the northern
Rockies should further amplify on Sunday across parts of the
northern Plains while gradually acquiring a negative tilt by Sunday
night. At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to sweep east-southeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest through the period in tandem with the amplifying upper
trough. Limited low-level moisture return is expected ahead of this
advancing cold front, and a low-level inversion may inhibit
convective development along the front through much of the day.
Still, some potential for storms remains evident from parts of far
eastern ND/SD into MN and perhaps parts of IA late Sunday afternoon
and continuing into the evening. Strong deep-layer shear will be
present across this region, which may act to organize any storms
that can develop and subsequently grow upscale along the cold front.
Isolated severe wind gusts will probably be the main threat through
Sunday evening given a mainly linear mode expected, although some
large hail may also occur early in the convective life cycle given
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Storms should weaken
with eastward extent across the Upper Midwest late Sunday as they
outrun the modest forecast instability.

...Southeast...
The remnants of Delta are forecast to move northeastward across
parts of the TN Valley on Sunday. Modestly enhanced mid-level south-southwesterly winds will remain across parts of the Southeast
as a surface warm front lifts slowly northward across parts of the
Carolinas. There appears to be enough veering/strengthening of winds
with height to support modestly organized storms across the warm
sector, with weak to locally moderate instability also forecast.
Isolated strong/gusty winds appear to be the main threat, although a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Gleason.. 10/09/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 100723
SWODY3
SPC AC 100722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough will continue to move
east-northeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. A
surface cold front will also move eastward over these regions.
Although strong mid-level flow will be present with the upper
trough, low-level moisture return ahead of the cold front is
forecast to remain fairly modest. Generally poor mid-level lapse
rates are also expected to limit instability, especially with
northward extent across the Great Lakes. Still, isolated storm
development along the cold front may occur by Monday afternoon,
particularly with southward extent into parts of the OH Valley.
Regardless, organized severe storms capable of producing
strong/gusty winds appear unlikely at this time owing to the meager surface-based instability forecast.

...Coastal Virginia/North Carolina...
A weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance eastward from
VA/NC off the East Coast by Monday afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of coastal
VA/NC in a weak low-level warm advection regime, and this activity
should move offshore through the day. The potential for organized
severe storms across this region currently appears low owing to weak instability and modest deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 10/10/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 110725
SWODY3
SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough should move northeastward across parts of New
England on Tuesday. A surface low should also develop northeastward
along/near the coast. Low-level warm advection is forecast to occur
through the day ahead of the features. Weak but sufficient MUCAPE
may be present to support elevated thunderstorms, mainly along/near
the coast. Instability should remain too weak to support an
organized severe risk across this region.

Farther west, a westerly mid/upper-level jet should advance eastward
over parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Cool
mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with this jet may
support meager instability and perhaps isolated, low-topped storms
capable of producing occasional lightning. Even though deep-layer
shear will be strong, severe storms are not expected owing to the
very marginal instability. Otherwise, thunderstorms are not forecast
across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and/or stable conditions
should generally prevail.

..Gleason.. 10/11/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 120713
SWODY3
SPC AC 120712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Enhanced, generally westerly flow across the northern half of the
CONUS should transition to an amplifying large-scale upper trough
across the central states on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure
initially over the northern Plains should develop east-northeastward
across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and southern Ontario through
the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep southeastward
across much of the Plains and upper/mid MS Valley. Modest low-level
moisture return may occur across parts of the southern Plains and
Southeast ahead of the front. However, capping across the southern
Plains will likely prohibit convective development, while negligible
ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit thunderstorm
potential across the Southeast. Thunderstorms also appear unlikely
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes in advance of the developing
upper trough, as instability is forecast to be very meager.

..Gleason.. 10/12/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 130723
SWODY3
SPC AC 130722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough should amplify further on Thursday as it
moves slowly eastward across the central/eastern CONUS. A surface
low initially in the vicinity of southern Ontario should continue
developing to the northeast into Quebec, with a trailing cold front
moving east-southeastward over much of the central/eastern states.
Mainly elevated convection appears possible on an isolated basis
along/ahead of the front across parts of TX/AR/LA through Thursday
night, although instability and deep-layer shear should remain weak
across these areas. Other isolated storms may occur late Thursday
night across parts of GA and SC, where low-level moisture will
modestly increase as ascent associated with the approaching upper
trough overspreads this region. A few storms may also develop across
parts of south FL and the Keys along sea breeze boundaries as
low-level moisture increases through the period.

..Gleason.. 10/13/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 140731
SWODY3
SPC AC 140730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough should develop east-northeastward from
the MS Valley vicinity across the eastern states on Friday. At the
surface, a cold front stretching from GA to the Mid-Atlantic is
forecast to move east-southeastward. A weak surface low should
develop from parts of the Carolinas to southern New England by the
end of the period. Although some increase in low-level moisture is
forecast ahead of the cold front, forecast soundings from various
guidance indicate mid-level lapse rates should remain particularly
poor. This will probably limit updraft strength/intensity, even as
mid-level southwesterly winds and related deep-layer shear slowly
increase through the day across portions of the central/eastern
Carolinas and vicinity. Have opted to not include low severe
probabilities across this region at this time, as the forecast poor
mid-level lapse rates and a low-level inversion suggest limited
severe wind potential. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may occur
ahead of the front across parts of the East Coast from FL to VA, and
in a low-level warm advection regime late Friday night cross
portions of southern New England.

..Gleason.. 10/14/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 150723
SWODY3
SPC AC 150722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A highly amplified upper trough should move northeastward across New
England on Saturday. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of this
feature may support a couple elevated storms across parts of the
immediate New England coast through the early afternoon, but
instability is expected to remain rather weak.

Farther south, convection may develop along sea breeze boundaries
across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. A decelerating
cold front across this region will likely serve as the northern
delimiter of thunderstorm potential. Weak deep-layer shear should
preclude an organized severe risk.

Low-level moisture is forecast to increase Saturday night across the
southern Plains and perhaps lower MS Valley as another shortwave
trough embedded within embedded within west-northwesterly mid-level
flow advances eastward from the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. However, elevated thunderstorm potential
appears highly uncertain, so have not included a general
thunderstorm area at this time.

..Gleason.. 10/15/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 190711
SWODY3
SPC AC 190710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday from
the Rockies eastward to the Great Lakes. At the surface, high
pressure will dominate the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as moisture
returns northward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi
Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from late Wednesday
afternoon into the overnight period as low-level flow increases
along the northern edge of the moist sector from the central Plains
to the southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible from parts of the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf
Coast States. A few storms may also develop from northeast Ohio into northwestern New England. The combination of instability and shear
across the continental United States appears insufficient for a
severe threat on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 10/19/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 200729
SWODY3
SPC AC 200728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...IOWA...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible in the Upper Midwest Thursday evening.

...Upper Midwest...
An upper-level trough will move into the Rockies on Thursday as
southwest mid-level flow becomes established from the Great Plains
to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
quickly southeastward across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid
60s F which will contribute to the development of a narrow corridor
of instability during the late afternoon. As low-level convergence
increases along the front during the early evening, thunderstorms
are expected to develop. SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range and
0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat mainly from northwest Missouri into southwest
Wisconsin. Hail and a few severe wind gusts will be possible with
the stronger cells. However, most of the convection is expected to
develop just behind the front where instability will be quite a bit
weaker. For this reason, any severe threat should remain marginal
Tuesday evening.

..Broyles.. 10/20/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 230646
SWODY3
SPC AC 230645

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous U.S. on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt, mid-level trough will amplify over the western
states as a potent disturbance moves equatorward along the West
Coast on Sunday through Sunday night. A belt of strong
southwesterly mid-level flow will extend from the Four Corners
northeastward across the central Great Plains and into the Great
Lakes. In the low levels, a cold front initially over the northern
TX Panhandle will surge southward through central TX and near the
OK-TX-AR border by daybreak Monday.

Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast
from TX northeastward into the southern Great Lakes during the Day-3
period. However, it appears the onset of weak instability
translating to shower/thunderstorm potential will primarily occur
late Sunday into Sunday night immediately on or behind the surface
front. Although a few brief stronger storms cannot be ruled out
(western Ozark Plateau), it appears the risk for organized severe
storms will be limited.

Elsewhere, a few weak thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon in the vicinity of the southern Appalachians in the
central and southern FL Peninsula.

..Smith.. 10/23/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 240659
SWODY3
SPC AC 240659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest
will evolve into a slow-moving mid-level low over the AZ during the
period. Meanwhile downstream of this feature, a belt of strong flow
will move little as a mid-level anticyclone remains entrenched over
FL. In the low levels, a surface front will decelerate as it moves
into the Arklatex. Mid- to upper-level forcing for ascent will
primarily be displaced farther west over the southern Rockies with
showers and a few widely spaced thunderstorms possible across TX
into the Ozarks. Only weak instability is forecast and
severe-thunderstorm activity is not expected.

..Smith.. 10/24/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 250712
SWODY3
SPC AC 250711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will migrate slowly eastward from southern AZ
to far west TX during the day 3 period. In the low levels, a cold
front draped from deep south TX northeast along the TX coast and
into the LA, will feature an unseasonably cool airmass to its
northwest over the central and southern Great Plains. A developing
tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the central Gulf of Mexico
during the day. As the tropical cyclone gradually approaches the
mouth of the MS River (see the latest National Hurricane Center
forecasts for the expected track and timing information), a maritime
tropical airmass will slowly advance northward in the lower MS
Valley. The gradually destabilizing airmass over the Gulf coastal
plain will become more favorable for isolated thunderstorms to
develop on the outer periphery of the tropical cyclone. The
expected strengthening of the wind field that would support a
conditional risk for rotating storms near the mouth of the MS River,
will probably not occur until after dawn Wednesday.

..Smith.. 10/25/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 260716
SWODY3
SPC AC 260715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging gusts
and/or a tornado is most probable over parts of the central Gulf
Coast states on Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with
Zeta.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move eastward from eastern NM into OK while
tropical cyclone Zeta makes landfall on the central Gulf Coast.
Zeta will move north, then northeast and merge with the baroclinic
regime over the lower MS Valley. Refer to the National Hurricane
Center forecasts for the latest track updates.

The potential for severe is focused on the inland penetration of a
tropical airmass into the coastal plain of the central Gulf Coast
states. At this point, the severe forecast is subject to
potentially large spatial adjustments based on large uncertainty in
the eventual track of tropical cyclone Zeta. Zeta is forecast to
move ashore and subsequently accelerate northeast across parts of
the South late Wednesday night. However, it seems plausible at this
point for highlighting the central Gulf Coast with potential tornado/damaging-gust hazards. Hodographs will enlarge during the
day and sufficient buoyancy will likely develop near the coast and
gradually spread inland into interior AL overnight.

Elsewhere, isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible farther west
over the southern Great Plains and farther north in the OH Valley
late.

..Smith.. 10/26/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 270709
SWODY3
SPC AC 270708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday morning for
adjacent parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle in
association with tropical cyclone Zeta. An isolated threat for
damaging thunderstorm gusts may develop over the Carolinas and
southern Virginia Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
A fairly complex scenario with relative higher uncertainty is
forecast for the day 3 period over the Southeast into the Carolinas
and VA. Tropical cyclone Zeta will move from the AL/GA vicinity
west of Atlanta and accelerate rapidly northeastward reaching
Chesapeake Bay by early Thursday evening according to the latest
National Hurricane Center forecast. The risk for a tornado may
linger during the morning from parts of the FL Panhandle
northeastward into central GA before low-level flow veers as Zeta
becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Only marginal
instability is expected to penetrate the areas north of the
immediate coastal counties with less-available instability farther
north into southwest GA. Nonetheless, a conditional risk for a
supercell or two capable of a tornado could continue from the late
Day 2 period into Day 3 across this region.

By early evening, a mid-level low will open and feature a
strengthening jet (100 kt at 500 mb) moving from northern AL
northeastward across the Carolinas into southeast VA by early Friday
morning. Significant mid-level height falls (120-180 m at 500 mb)
will overspread central NC Thursday night. Concurrently, a cold
front is forecast to sweep eastward across the southern Appalachians
with intensifying frontal forcing in lee of the higher terrain.
Model guidance currently indicates a moist boundary layer will
become conditionally unstable with a cluster or band of storms
potentially developing after dark. The transport of higher momentum
aloft to the surface could materialize with a risk for damaging
gusts.

..Smith.. 10/27/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 280646
SWODY3
SPC AC 280645

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
An intense mid-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic
states early Friday morning with weak mid-level ridging over the
central U.S. ahead of an amplifying trough over the northwestern
CONUS. In the low levels, a cold front will push southeastward
through the southern part of the FL Peninsula and into the FL
Straits during the morning. A few showers and a thunderstorm or two
are possible in south FL. Tranquil conditions will prevail across a
large part of the Lower 48 states on Friday through Friday night.

..Smith.. 10/28/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 290551
SWODY3
SPC AC 290550

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes on Saturday into Saturday night. A recent cold
front intrusion into the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will
yield a setup hostile to thunderstorm formation, except near the FL
Everglades where an isolated afternoon storm may develop.
Elsewhere, relatively dry/stable conditions will exist.

..Smith.. 10/29/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 310659
SWODY3
SPC AC 310658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A long-wave mid-level trough will exit the East Coast into the
western Atlantic as a ridge builds over the High Plains. Surface
high pressure centered over the lower MS Valley will lead to
tranquil conditions for a large part of the area east of the
Rockies. Models show a weak mid-level trough over southern CA. A
few high-based showers and possibly a thunderstorm could develop
over southern NV and perhaps the far southern Sierra Nevada.
However, the thunderstorm risk appears too negligible to warrant an
areal thunderstorm highlight at this time.

..Smith.. 10/31/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 010702
SWODY3
SPC AC 010701

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A couple of weak disturbances are forecast to quickly move eastward
over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies within a belt of strong
westerlies. Farther east, a mid-level ridge over the central U.S.
will deamplify as a northern New England large-scale trough shifts
east into the western Atlantic. A weak mid-level trough is forecast
to meander east from the Mojave Desert to the Four Corners. It
appears the risk for thunderstorms is below 10-percent CONUS-wide,
but a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out near the WA coast
in association with deeper convective showers moving ashore.

..Smith.. 11/01/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 020633
SWODY3
SPC AC 020632

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper-air pattern is forecast across the Lower 48 on
Wednesday. A powerful upper jet is forecast to nose into the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Showers and isolated convective
showers are likely for coastal WA into the northern Cascades. A few
lightning flashes may occur with the deeper convective showers.
Elsewhere, generally dry/stable conditions will prevail across much
of the CONUS and preclude thunderstorm development. The exception
may be far south FL where a couple of showers/thunderstorms could
develop during the day.

..Smith.. 11/02/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 030717
SWODY3
SPC AC 030716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. on
Thursday.

...South Florida...

Within an easterly low-level flow regime, a moist boundary layer
will persist across south Florida resulting in modest instability.
Areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in this
regime Thursday into Thursday night.

...Pacific Northwest Coast...

A shortwave trough is forecast to amplify off the Pacific NW coast
during the day, before moving inland later Thursday night. Steeper
lapse rates resulting from cold air aloft accompanying this feature
will contribute to weak instability near the coast, where isolated thunderstorms could move inland during the overnight.

..Dial.. 11/03/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 040803
SWODY3
SPC AC 040802

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland on
Friday.

...Northern California...

A strong shortwave trough will move southeast through northern CA
during the day Friday. Cold air aloft, steep lapse rates and deep
forcing for ascent accompanying this feature will contribute to the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across a portion
of northern CA during the day.

...Central through southern Florida...

A moist easterly low-level flow regime will persist across FL,
resulting in modest instability, especially in the southern half of
the state. Forcing for ascent will remain weak, but given limited
convective inhibition, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will remain possible in this environment.

..Dial.. 11/04/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 050831
SWODY3
SPC AC 050830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Saturday.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Intermountain
West on Saturday as south-southwesterly mid-level flow persists in
the Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the
southern and central Rockies Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm
at the higher elevations. Additional thunderstorms will be possible
on Saturday across a moist airmass located from the lower
Mississippi Valley to the eastern Carolinas. Due to weak
instability, no severe threat is expected to develop in the
continental United States on Saturday or Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 11/05/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 061839
SWODY3
SPC AC 061838

Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

AMENDED TO ADD DISCUSSION ABOUT TROPICAL SYSTEM ETA

...SUMMARY...
Low-end tornado risk could evolve late in the period with the
arrival of tropical system ETA to the Florida Keys vicinity.

...DISCUSSION...
A upper-level low pressure system will move slowly across the
western U.S. on Sunday as flow remains south-southwesterly across
the central states. Moisture return will take place across the
southern Plains and Arklatex as a strong low-level jet develops in
the Great Plains. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible on the
western edge of the low-level jet Sunday night from the Texas
Panhandle north-northeastward into the northern Plains and mid
Missouri Valley. Other thunderstorms will be possible across
southern sections of the Atlantic Seaboard, with some tornado risk
possibly evolving over southern Florida and the Keys, late in the
period.

...Southern Florida and the Florida Keys...
Latest NHC forecasts show Tropical Depression ETA -- currently just
east of Belize -- moving northeastward with time. The storm is
forecast to strengthen to tropical-storm strength, and should reach
Cuba by Sunday morning -- i.e. the start of the Day 3 period.
Current forecasts then depict the storm taking a
northward/northwestward turn, reaching the Florida Keys vicinity by
12Z Monday.

Based on the current track forecast, strong low-level easterly flow
would spread northward toward -- and eventually into -- south
Florida Sunday, with 0-1 shear potentially becoming supportive of
low-level rotation in cellular convection through latter stages of
the period. While uncertainty precludes introduction of a risk area
at this time, a low-probability tornado risk area will be considered
in the next outlook update, north and northeast of the forecast
track of the system.

..Goss.. 11/06/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 070833
SWODY3
SPC AC 070832

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains into the mid
Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on
Monday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the
central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
east-southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains.
A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front with surface
dewpoints possibly reaching the lower 60s F from eastern Kansas into
eastern Oklahoma. As weak destabilization occurs during the day
along and just ahead of the front, thunderstorm development is
expected. Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase from late
afternoon into the evening as a line of storms moves eastward across
western Iowa, southeast Nebraska and central Kansas. More isolated
development could occur southward into western Oklahoma. Although
strong deep-layer shear will be in place, SBCAPE is forecast to
remain below 500 J/kg in most areas. For this reason, any severe
threat is expected to be marginal. Hail and gusty winds will be the
primary threats.

...South Florida/Florida Peninsula...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression Eta
to strengthen and become a Tropical Storm today. The system is
forecast to move northward to near the Florida Keys by early Monday
morning. At that time, rainbands associated with Eta will likely be
in the Florida Keys and across south Florida. Forecast soundings
Monday morning in south Florida show veering winds with height in
the lowest 3 km above ground level and have strong speed shear in
the boundary layer. As a result, 0-1 km shear is forecast to be near
35 kt which will support storm rotation with discrete cells in the
rainbands of Eta. Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to move
west-northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the day on
Monday suggesting any tornado potential that develops could
gradually diminish across south Florida by Monday evening. At this
time, forecast tornado probabilities are too low to add a
categorical risk area.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 080823
SWODY3
SPC AC 080822

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward
across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday as a cold front
advances eastward into the Ozarks and Arklatex. Moisture advection
will take place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints likely
reaching the lower 60s F across a large parts of the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. At the start of the period, thunderstorms appear
likely to be ongoing from central Oklahoma northeastward into
northern Missouri. The models suggest that the line will move east-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi
Valley during the day. Instability is forecast to peak around
midday, when some solutions have SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 800 J/kg
range. This combined with strong deep-layer shear of 60 to 80 kt
should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The stronger
cells embedded in the line could produce strong wind gusts. Hail
will be possible with cells that form in areas that destabilize the
most. Due to abundant cloud cover and relatively cool surface
temperatures, instability is expected to remain weak, keeping any
severe threat that develops marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 090823
SWODY3
SPC AC 090822

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Intermountain
West into the Rockies on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow
remains established from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward
into the Appalachians. Weak instability appears likely to develop
ahead of the front across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the
front during the day on Wednesday. Instability is forecast to be too
weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United
States, thunderstorm development is not expected Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 100756
SWODY3
SPC AC 100755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the CONUS on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An expansive belt of moderate to strong southwest flow aloft will
stretch from Baja CA into the Northeast, with a leading
low-amplitude trough moving east across the upper MS Valley and
Great Lakes. To the west, a larger upper trough will amplify along
the West Coast into Friday morning, with a significant speed max
diving southeast along the Pacific Coast.

At the surface, cooler air will push south across the Mid Atlantic
as high pressure spreads eastward across New England. A weak surface
trough will exist across the Carolinas, GA and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico to TS Eta, and will support periodic showers and
thunderstorms during the day.

To the west, although a cold front will approach coastal WA, OR and
northern CA late in the day, forecast soundings indicate little if
any instability will be present over land to support thunderstorms.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to continue slowly
northward across the eastern Gulf Of Mexico, perhaps resulting in
enhanced wind shear along the west coast of FL.

...Mid Atlantic...
Large-scale ascent will be maximized early in the day Thursday with
a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet in place beneath the
right-entrance region of an upper jet. This setup will wane rather
quickly during the day, with decreased lift and veering low-level
winds. Widespread upper 60s F dewpoints and sufficient instability
may support a few diurnal storms, but most of the activity is
expected to be concentrated in the morning. Given moderate mean wind
speeds below 700 mb, a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

...FL...
Warm air aloft associated with TS Eta along with very little heating
will again yield poor-lapse rate soundings, with weak SBCAPE despite
low 70s F surface dewpoints. In addition, the bulk of the enhanced
low-level shear is likely to remain offshore, further minimizing
tornado risk.

..Jewell.. 11/10/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 110709
SWODY3
SPC AC 110708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday or Friday night.

...Synopsis...

A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will be in place on Friday,
with several shortwave troughs migrating through larger-scale, broad
trough encompassing much of the CONUS. One such mid/upper shortwave
will deepen over the western states and eject eastward across the
Rockies and into the Plains by early Saturday morning. Strong
southwesterly low level flow ahead of this features will overspread
the southern/central Plains to the mid-MS Valley. Modest moisture
transport will occur, bringing mainly 40s and 50s F surface
dewpoints into parts of northwest TX, OK and perhaps the Ozarks. As
a low-level jet increases during the evening, warm advection atop a
cooler near-surface boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse
rates should suffice for isolated thunderstorm development from
parts of the southern Plains into Missouri, but severe potential
will be limited by weak instability and the elevated nature of
convection.

Further east, what remains of current Tropical Storm Eta is forecast
by the National Hurricane Center to be near northern FL or southeast
GA on Friday and likely beginning the transition from tropical to
extratropical as it interacts with a cold front stalled near the
Southeast coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the
eastern Carolinas into portions of FL where any stronger heating can
occur, resulting in enough destabilization for sustained updrafts.
Given the expected location of Eta at that time, tropical cyclone
tornado activity does not appear to be a concern, and severe
potential is low at this time.

..Leitman.. 11/11/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 120831
SWODY3
SPC AC 120831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/OZARKS/ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across eastern Oklahoma and
the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex regions late Saturday afternoon and night.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale trough amplification is likely to occur over the
northern/central Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Middle/Lower
Missouri Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Primary surface
cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Upper Midwest, with
modest-caliber low-level moisture steadily advecting
north-northeastward in advance of an eastward-moving cold front.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
It is probable that low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will
develop northward into the region by late Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night in advance of the east/southeastward-moving cold
front. Early day convection is a point of uncertainty and potential
limitation, particularly regarding the northward extent of modest
later-day destabilization. As compared to the 00Z NAM/GFS, the 00Z
ECMWF (and semi-consistent prior runs) features notably stronger
cyclogenesis farther south across Missouri/Iowa toward the
middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with higher moisture content and
somewhat greater available instability (albeit modest overall)
across this region. Regardless, it would appear that at least some severe-weather potential will exist across the region late Saturday
afternoon, and more so Saturday evening. While moisture/buoyancy
details are not clear, hodographs would support the potential for
fast-moving semi-discrete supercells and linear segments where
adequate destabilization does occur, with a corresponding potential
for damaging winds along with a tornado risk. This severe potential
currently appears most probable across eastern Oklahoma/far
northeast Texas into Arkansas and southern Missouri.

..Guyer.. 11/12/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 130827
SWODY3
SPC AC 130826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Although organized severe-weather potential is currently expected to
remain minimal on Sunday, a few thunderstorms with gusty winds may
occur over parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast States.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Sunday
morning is expected to quickly spread east-northeastward over
Ontario/Quebec and the Northeast States through Sunday night. An
associated cold front will race generally eastward over the eastern
third of the CONUS.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States...
Scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are
likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across the Upper Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes near/ahead of a fast-moving cold front. This convection
will quickly transition east-northeastward across the region during
the day. In the presence of minimal low-level moisture and limited
buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE at most), various model forecast
soundings suggest that buoyancy depth will tend to be too shallow
for charge separation, although thermodynamic profiles may be
conducive for localized/isolated lightning flashes in the presence
of strong forcing for ascent. While organized severe thunderstorms
are not currently expected, the potential does exist for some
convectively enhanced wind gusts as modest diurnal heating occurs
coincident with very strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds within
the lowest 1-2 km AGL.

...Coastal Texas to Southeast States/Florida...
These areas will be located well to the south of more appreciable
height falls/forcing for ascent, although corridors of weak
convection may occur near the southeast-moving cold front. Forecast
soundings for areas such as coastal Texas and the Florida
Peninsula/nearby Southeast States generally reflect poor mid-level
lapse rates and a persistent inversion aloft. Thus, the potential
for thunderstorms currently appears low (less than 10 percent).

..Guyer.. 11/13/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 140754
SWODY3
SPC AC 140753

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday and Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An amplified but semi-progressive mid/upper level pattern will exist
across the CONUS on Monday. An upper trough over the western states
will shift eastward across the Rockies as a shortwave trough
develops southeastward into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday
morning. Further east, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will intensify as it ejects eastward across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will persist
across much of the West and southeastern states, but low pressure
will develop across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in association
with the deepening mid/upper shortwave trough. This will bring a
reinforcing cold front and shot of cooler weather across this
region. Convection with this frontal system appear unlikely given a
dearth of boundary-layer moisture will be left behind in the wake of
a cold frontal passage in the Days 1/2-Sat/Sun period.

The stalled remains of the cold front from the Days 1/2 will be
draped across the FL Peninsula on Monday. Dewpoints in the upper 60s
and low 70s a modest heating will result in weak instability and
isolated thunderstorms are possible as the front slowly sags
southward through the period. Weak overall thermodynamic and
kinematic fields will preclude any organized severe threat.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 150815
SWODY3
SPC AC 150814

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday
night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
The upper-level pattern will remain amplified but progressive over
the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave trough will quickly overspread the
Pacific Northwest and advance toward the Canadian Rockies, while
upper ridging and surface high pressure prevail over the Plains and
Midwest.

As a cold front continues to settle southward, thermodynamic
profiles may marginally support a few thunderstorms near the far
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys.

In the West, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across
coastal portions of Washington/Oregon and northern California in
association with steepening lapse rates/weak buoyancy related to an inland-advancing shortwave trough and associated frontal band. While
organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected, a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail cannot be
ruled out.

..Guyer.. 11/15/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 160745
SWODY3
SPC AC 160744

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

...Synopsis...

A somewhat amplified but progressive mid/upper-level pattern will
exist over the CONUS on Wednesday. The period will begin with an
amplified upper ridge oriented from the Upper Midwest to the
south-central states. Upper-level troughs will flank either side of
the ridge, oriented near the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. As the
Pacific trough shifts east, the upper ridge will deamplify as it
migrates eastward across the eastern U.S., and overall upper flow
pattern will become quasi-zonal.

Strong surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River will
maintain dry and stable conditions with little thunderstorm activity
expected. A weak surface lee trough will develop over the central
and southern Plains after 00z, resulting in modest Gulf return flow
across Texas and perhaps into Oklahoma, though instability will be
too meager and moisture too shallow to support any thunderstorm
activity in this weak WAA regime. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible near the Pacific Northwest coast from WA/OR into northeast
CA ahead of a weak front moving onshore early in the period. Cold
temperatures aloft will result in steep lapse rates and weak, albeit
sufficient instability supporting sporadic lightning flashes. As the
upper trough weakens and shifts east with time, thunderstorm
activity should diminish into the evening/overnight hours. Weak
instability and modest shear will preclude severe thunderstorm
concerns.

..Leitman.. 11/16/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 170752
SWODY3
SPC AC 170751

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will become somewhat more
amplified over the western states by the end of the forecast period.
A series of mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate across the
Pacific Northwest and dig southward along the CA coast, resulting in
the development of a larger-scale trough. Further east, high
pressure both aloft and at the surface will persist across the
southeast and eastern U.S. This will result in dry and stable
conditions for much of the CONUS east of the MS River.

As the aforementioned trough becomes better defined in the west, a
weak surface lee trough will develop over the Plains. This will
allow for modest Gulf return flow spreading northward across TX into southern/central Plains vicinity, and surface dewpoints may climb
into the low 50s as far north as OK/KS after 00z. A stout inversion
around 850 mb will preclude surface-based instability, while warm
temperatures aloft and poor midlevel lapse rates further preclude
thunderstorm activity in this weak warm advection regime.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 180808
SWODY3
SPC AC 180807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday
night.

...Synopsis...

Quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will persist across much of the
CONUS east of the Rockies on Day 3/Friday. At the surface, strong
high pressure will generally lead to dry and stable conditions.
Across the western states, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest early in the period will develop southeast across
the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This will result in height
falls across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains late in the
period, inducing a lee low over the central/southern High Plains. In
response, modest Gulf moisture will stream northward through the
southern Plains ahead of stalled front across the central Plains to
the Mid-MS Valley vicinity.

This warm advection regime will likely result in developing showers
from the Four Corners into the central/southern Plains and parts of
the Midwest along the aforementioned boundary. However, thunderstorm
activity should be sparse due to weak instability and poor lapse
rates. The exception may be across parts of the higher terrain of SW
CO/NW NM where cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel
lapse rates, and deep layer flow will increase with the approach of
the trough. A few lightning flashes may occur in this area from late
Friday evening into the overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 11/18/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 190802
SWODY3
SPC AC 190801

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday through Saturday
night.

...Synopsis...

A series of mid/upper shortwave troughs migrating through
larger-scale cyclonic flow regime will shift eastward from the
Rockies to the Upper Midwest and south-central U.S. on
Saturday/Saturday night. Boundary-layer moisture will largely be
limited by persistent surface high pressure over most of the CONUS.
However, some modest surface dewpoints will reside over the southern
Plains into the lower MS Valley vicinity ahead of a
southeastward-progressing cold front. Showers and at times
moderate/heavy rainfall is possible in this weak upslope flow and
warm advection regime across the southern Rockies and adjacent
Plains, but thunderstorm activity is expected to be limited to
portions of the higher terrain of southern CO/northern NM. Here,
cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and
sufficient MUCAPE for isolate lightning flashes will coincide with
strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough. Further east, poor
lapse rates and very weak elevated instability will preclude
thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 200816
SWODY3
SPC AC 200815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough should continue moving eastward from the Plains
across the MS Valley/Midwest and eastern states on Sunday. At the
surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the
Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period. A cold
front attendant to the surface low should sweep east-southeastward
across much of the southern Plains and eastern states. Modest
low-level moisture ahead of the front is expected to remain
generally confined to parts of the southern Plains into the
Mid-South. Various guidance suggests little instability should be
present across these regions owing to the limited low-level moisture
and poor mid-level lapse rates. Still, just enough elevated
instability may exist to support isolated thunderstorms, with
lightning potential decreasing with northeastward extent into the OH
Valley as instability becomes negligible. Organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected over any of these regions owing to
the meager forecast instability.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of
the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys as weak low-level
easterly flow continues, in the vicinity of the Four Corners as
upper troughing amplifies over the western CONUS late in the period,
and possibly across the Outer Banks of NC very late Sunday night
into early Monday morning.

..Gleason.. 11/20/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 210813
SWODY3
SPC AC 210812

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair of large-scale upper troughs will move eastward across the
CONUS on Monday. Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the
upper trough over the eastern states may support just enough
elevated instability to generate isolated lightning flashes across
parts of coastal MA/ME early in the period. Any thunderstorm
potential should shift quickly east-northeastward and offshore
through the day in tandem with the progression of the upper trough.

The upper trough over the western CONUS should likewise progress
eastward, with the southern portion of this trough perhaps closing
off near the Four Corners late Monday night. Although moisture will
likely remain quite limited, cooling mid-level temperatures and
strong forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough should
support isolated thunderstorms across parts of the southern/central
Rockies through the period. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across the central High Plains, with modest
low-level moisture return occurring across portions of the
southern/central Plains ahead of the developing low. Isolated
thunderstorms may also occur across this area, mainly Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. Instability should remain fairly weak,
with any storms that form likely remaining elevated.

..Gleason.. 11/21/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 220825
SWODY3
SPC AC 220825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday into
Tuesday night across portions of the southern/central Plains,
Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper trough/low initially centered over the southern/central
Rockies should eject eastward across the southern/central Plains on
Tuesday, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by the end of
the period. Enhanced (50-60+ kt) mid-level southwesterly winds will
likely overspread much of the developing warm sector across the southern/central Plains by Tuesday evening. A surface low over the
vicinity of western KS/NE Tuesday morning is forecast to develop
eastward towards the mid MS Valley through the period. Pronounced
low-level warm/moist advection will likely be ongoing across the southern/central Plains Tuesday morning, with a 40-50+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet present over this region. As this
low-level jet shifts eastward across the Ozarks and lower/mid MS
Valley through the day, partially modified Gulf moisture will
likewise return northward.

Elevated convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across the
southern/central High Plains associated with low-level warm
advection. As mid-level temperatures cool with the approach of the
upper trough and low-level moisture continues streaming northward
across the southern Plains, at least weak instability should develop
by late Tuesday afternoon along and east of a surface cold front and
dryline. Somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear may support isolated, marginally severe hail with
any initially discrete storms across OK and perhaps south-central
KS. By Tuesday evening, any storms that do form will likely grow
upscale into a line along the advancing cold front. Given the
predominately linear mode and enhanced low-level wind field,
isolated strong to damaging winds should become the main threat
across the Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower MS Valley region Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning.

There is uncertainty regarding the quality and northward extent of
greater low-level moisture return, with the 00Z GFS/ECMWF suggesting
mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dewpoints may reach as far north as south-central/southeastern KS into southern MO and the Mid-South.
The 00Z NAM shows less low-level moisture return across these areas. Regardless, there will probably be enough low-level moisture and
related weak instability to support surface-based storms and
isolated strong/gusty wind potential with a low-topped convective
line. Farther south into parts of central/eastern OK, AR, northeast
TX, northern LA, and MS, the presence of somewhat higher dewpoints
along with enhanced low-level shear may support a slightly greater
tornado threat compared to locations farther north. Model
differences regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and
weak forecast instability suggest there is too much uncertainty to
include more than a broad Marginal risk area at this time.

..Gleason.. 11/22/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 230827
SWODY3
SPC AC 230826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley
and Southeast.

...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and
Southeast...
A closed upper low with associated southwesterly mid-level jet
should continue to advance from the lower/mid MS Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Wednesday. A surface low initially over
northern MO is forecast to develop northeastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley and lower Great Lakes while slowly filling through
the period. A cold front extending southward from this low should
progress generally eastward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley,
TN Valley, and Southeast through the day.

A broken line of showers/storms may be ongoing at the start of the
period across these regions along/ahead of the cold front with a isolated/marginal severe threat. Substantial low-level moisture
return will probably make only a limited northward advance ahead of
the front. Still, diurnal heating and cooling mid-level temperatures
with the approach of the upper trough/low may promote weak
instability through Wednesday evening across the narrow warm sector.
Given strong flow aloft attendant to the previously mentioned
mid-level jet, there should be more than enough deep-layer shear to
support organized storms. Isolated strong to damaging winds appear
to be the main threat with any storms that can either persist along
the front or develop ahead of it. A brief tornado or two also cannot
be ruled out mainly early in the period, before low-level winds veer
more west-southwesterly as the primary low-level jet shifts north of
the surface warm sector and into the OH Valley by Wednesday evening. Eventually, the cold front should outpace the modest low-level
moisture return across the TN Valley and Southeast, with a gradual
reduction in the already isolated/marginal severe threat by late
Wednesday evening as the system occludes.

..Gleason.. 11/23/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 240825
SWODY3
SPC AC 240824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Thursday, but small hail may occur with
thunderstorms across parts of east Texas into the ArkLaTex late
Thursday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A de-amplifying shortwave trough should move across the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England on Thursday. A weak surface low associated
with this feature is forecast to fill further through the day. An eastward-moving cold front should extend from the Mid-Atlantic
southwestward along parts of the East Coast and into the Southeast.
The stronger mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough should
remain displaced to the north of greater low-level moisture across
the Carolinas and Southeast. Although enough weak elevated
instability may develop across the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England to support isolated thunderstorms,
surface-based convection appears unlikely at this time. From the
Carolinas into the Southeast, additional storms may occur through
the day along/ahead of the cold front. These areas will remain
generally to the south of stronger forcing for ascent related to the
previously mentioned shortwave trough, with overall storm coverage
expected to remain fairly low.

As a positively tilted upper trough moves southeastward over the western/central CONUS, low-level moisture return should occur across
parts of coastal/east TX and the ArkLaTex region late Thursday into
early Friday morning. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the higher terrain of west TX and northern Mexico may
overspread this region late in the period. Weak to perhaps moderate
MUCAPE should develop along/north of a front, with sufficient
mid-level west-southwesterly flow to support some deep-layer shear.
At this point, small hail appears possible with any storms that can
form in a weak low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence
in an isolated large hail threat from elevated storms remains low
owing to nebulous large-scale forcing with the upper trough
remaining well to the west, and differences in model guidance
regarding both the placement and overall coverage of storms.

..Gleason.. 11/24/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 260811
SWODY3
SPC AC 260810

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed mid/upper-level low should move slowly eastward across the
southern Plains on Saturday. A prolonged period of precipitation
will likely have been ongoing since Friday across much of
central/east TX ahead of this feature, limiting instability. A weak
surface low is forecast to develop from the lower TX Coast vicinity northeastward towards coastal LA through the period. A cold front
will probably move off the TX Coast Saturday morning, with elevated,
non-severe thunderstorms possible to its north across parts of
central/east TX. At this point, it appears that a marine warm front
extending east-northeastward from the surface low will not make
substantial progress inland across coastal LA/MS/AL through late
Saturday night. Accordingly, the potential for surface-based
thunderstorms posing even an isolated/marginal severe risk across
this area currently appears low.

..Gleason.. 11/26/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 270829
SWODY3
SPC AC 270828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast and
Carolinas.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast and Carolinas...
A closed upper low over the southern Plains Sunday morning should
move eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through the
day. This upper low should begin to merge with a northern-stream
upper trough over the eastern CONUS Sunday evening into early Monday
morning. A weak surface low initially near the coast of LA is
forecast to develop northeastward across the Southeast through the
day while gradually deepening. Additional deepening of this surface
low should occur Sunday evening through the end of the period as it
continues developing northeastward along/near the spine of the
southern/central Appalachians. A warm front should lift northward
across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas through the period,
while a cold front attendant to the surface low sweeps eastward
across these regions throughout the period.

A prior frontal intrusion over the northern Gulf of Mexico may tend
to limit the prospect for substantial inland destabilization across
the Southeast through Sunday evening. Even so, low to mid 60s
surface dewpoints should advance northward into parts of southern
LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle in tandem with the developing surface
low and warm front through the day. Forecast soundings from various
models suggest weak instability may gradually develop with modest
daytime heating across these areas along/south of the warm front.
Strong low-level and deep-layer shear appear likely given the
enhanced wind field associated with the approaching upper low. This
high-shear, low-instability setup typically favors isolated strong
to severe convection across the developing warm sector along/ahead
of the eastward-moving cold front. Damaging winds a perhaps a couple
tornadoes would be the main threats with both low-topped supercells
and linear convection given the forecast strength of the low-level
flow and shear.

This isolated severe threat may continue across parts of GA into the
Carolinas Sunday night and early Monday morning (end of the Day 3
period), as low-level moisture return occurs from the western
Atlantic. However, even through the low-level flow across these
areas should be quite strong, surface-based instability is forecast
to remain rather weak. Given the potentially limiting factor of
modest instability, have opted to introduce a broad Marginal Risk
area from parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Carolinas.
The northern extent of any damaging wind/tornado threat remains
unclear, as there is uncertainty in how far north the low to mid 60s
surface dewpoints (which will probably be needed for surface-based
storms) will advance across the Southeast and Carolinas. If
confidence increases in a narrow corridor of greater instability
developing across the warm sector, a Slight Risk for damaging winds
and/or tornadoes may need to be included across some portion of
these regions in a later outlook update.

..Gleason.. 11/27/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 010742
SWODY3
SPC AC 010741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
At the beginning of the period, a pair of upper lows, one centered
over northeast OK and the other over the central NM/AZ, are expected
to be embedded within an elongated upper trough extending from the
Mid MS Valley through the Southwest. This upper troughing will
likely be maintained throughout the period as the easternmost upper
low devolves into an open wave and moves across the Mid MS Valley
into the Lower OH Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow attendant to this
upper low/shortwave will spread northeastward from the Southern
Plains through the OH Valley.

The surface low associated with the eastern upper low is forecast to
begin the period over eastern OK. This low is expected to fill
throughout the day while a secondary low develops farther south over
the Lower MS Valley. Upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints are anticipated
ahead of this secondary low and attendant cold front. Daytime
heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover, but enough
low-level moisture is expected to be in place to support modest
instability and the development of isolated thunderstorms. This
instability will likely be displaced south of the stronger low-level
and mid-level flow, limiting vertical shear and keeping severe
potential very low.

..Mosier.. 12/01/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 020809
SWODY3
SPC AC 020808

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, Florida,
and the eastern Mid-Atlantic States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the Mid
MS Valley southwestward into north TX early Friday morning.
Expectation is for this shortwave to progress eastward through the
TN Valley and Southeast, eventually moving into the Mid-Atlantic
States by early Saturday morning. As the shortwave progresses
eastward, it will pivot into a negative tilt while also developing
strong mid-level flow from its based throughout its eastern
periphery.

Surface low accompanying this shortwave is forecast to begin the
period over coastal MS/AL before quickly moving northeastward. This
low is expected to end the period over central VA. Modest moisture
advection is anticipated ahead of this low and attendant cold front,
with low 60s dewpoints expected across the FL Panhandle Friday
afternoon and across the coastal Mid-Atlantic Friday night into
Saturday morning. Even with this moisture, abundant clouds will
limit heating and poor lapse rates will suppress overall buoyancy.
Wind profiles support a severe risk with any sustained,
surface-based updrafts, but occurrence of such an updraft will
depend on mesoscale factors difficult to predict at this forecast
length. Most likely locations for severe storms currently appear to
be over the central FL Panhandle on Friday afternoon and along the
Carolina coast late Friday night/early Saturday. However, given the predictability issues, no areas will be delineated with this
forecast.

..Mosier.. 12/02/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 030812
SWODY3
SPC AC 030811

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Thu Dec 03 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Majority of the medium-range forecast guidance places a mature
mid-latitude cyclone over the central Mid-Atlantic States on
Saturday morning. The only exception is the ECMWF, which is more
progressive and places the cyclone off the northern Mid-Atlantic
coast. This more progressive solution takes the front offshore
before the period begins, while the less progressive solutions leave
a small portion of the central/northern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the
front. Given the presence of very strong low to mid-level flow, some
low severe risk is feasible across coastal NC and the VA Tidewater
in the less progressive solutions. However, forecast confidence is
currently too low to introduce an outlook area.

Mostly stable conditions are expected outside of the Mid-Atlantic
region. A few lightning flashes are possible across the central and
southern FL Peninsula as a front moves through. A few lightning
flashes are also possible across South TX as a shortwave trough
ejects northeastward out of central Mexico and across TX. Coverage
over South TX are currently expected to be less than 10 percent.

..Mosier.. 12/03/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 040742
SWODY3
SPC AC 040741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern Florida Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

...Synopsis...

An upper level low over OK/TX on Sunday morning is forecast to shift
eastward across the lower MS Valley while merging with an upper
trough over the Midwest late in the period. A weak surface low and
cold front will track eastward across the Gulf of Mexico well south
of the northern Gulf Coast. However, strong southwesterly deep layer
flow associate with the upper low/trough will result in strong
midlevel warm advection and widespread showers are expected along
much of the northern Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms are not expected with
this activity given limited low level moisture and weak instability.
Further east and ahead of the surface low/cold front, deeper
boundary layer moisture will reside across the southern FL peninsula
and increase during the overnight hours as southerly low level flow strengthens. While instability will be weak and midlevel lapse rates
poor, a few pre-frontal thunderstorms appear possible during the
overnight hours as shear and forcing increases. The poor
thermodynamic environment should preclude any severe threat.

..Leitman.. 12/04/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 050704
SWODY3
SPC AC 050702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the southern Florida
peninsula on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mean upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday
while an upper ridge builds across the western half of the country.
Within the western upper ridge, an upper low over southern CA will
become cut-off and shift southwest over the Pacific offshore from
southern CA/northern Baja. At the surface, high pressure will
envelop much of the CONUS, bringing dry and stable conditions with
little chance of thunderstorm activity. The exception will be across
the southern Florida peninsula, mainly during the morning hours. A
weak surface low offshore the southwest FL coast will quickly shift east/northeast by early afternoon, and a cold front will sag
southward. Weak instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe
potential, though strong southwesterly deep layer flow will persist
through at least midday. This could result in a briefly organized
storm or two, capable of gusty winds.

..Leitman.. 12/05/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 060716
SWODY3
SPC AC 060715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Sun Dec 06 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to shift
eastward over the Atlantic while upper ridging spreads across much
of the rest of the CONUS. A cutoff low also will persist offshore
from southern CA/northern Baja. At the surface, high pressure will
encompass much of the country, and a cold front will push southward
into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in dry, stable
conditions and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on
Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 070714
SWODY3
SPC AC 070713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Mon Dec 07 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will shift eastward across the central and into the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will
persist over much of the country, and continental trajectories will
result in dry and stable conditions. A shortwave trough will dig
across the Pacific Northwest and merge with the upper low off the
southern CA/northern Baja coast. This larger-scale trough will
develop eastward across the western U.S., extending from the
northern Rockies to AZ and northwest Mexico by 12z Thursday. Strong southwesterly deep layer flow will spread across northwest Mexico
and southern AZ/NM, with midlevel moisture increasing toward the
very end of the period. Showers will likely increase across parts of
AZ/NM after 00z, however meager instability will limit thunderstorm
potential.

..Leitman.. 12/07/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 080735
SWODY3
SPC AC 080734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Tue Dec 08 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

The upper low over the lower CO Valley/northwest Mexico early
Thursday will progress eastward, becoming an open wave, to the
western portions of the central/southern Plains by 12z Friday.
Strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the southern
Rockies and adjacent Plains, with strong height falls resulting in
surface low development over OK/TX during the afternoon and evening.
As this occurs, southerly low level return flow across the western
Gulf will transport modest moisture northward across southern and
eastern TX into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity late in the period. Showers
are expected across parts of AZ/NM during the day and despite strong
ascent associated with the progressive upper trough, meager
instability should preclude thunderstorm activity. During the
overnight hours toward early Friday morning, the warm advection
occurring over eastern TX may also result in showers, however,
thunderstorm chances before the end of the forecast period appear
low.

..Leitman.. 12/08/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 130733
SWODY3
SPC AC 130732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that initially amplified mid/upper troughing digging
to the lee of the southern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday may undergo
considerable shearing during this period. The primary embedded
short wave perturbation, perhaps including at least a transient
closed mid-level low, is generally forecast to pivot across the
central and southern Great Plains, through the middle and lower
Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. As it does, it is
forecast to provide support for slowly deepening surface troughing
across and east of the Mississippi Valley. Although initially
expansive cold surface ridging across and east of this region at the
outset of the period will suppress significant surface cyclogenesis,
this may include the development of a surface low over the lower
Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Otherwise, a frontal zone, initially
extending across the central Florida Peninsula into the northern
Gulf of Mexico, probably will become the primary focus for potential cyclogenesis. And models indicate a couple of waves developing
along it by late Tuesday night.

Boundary-layer moistening and destabilization within the warm sector
of one of these, across the north central into northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, could provide support for increasing thunderstorm activity
(well offshore) Tuesday night. Another wave, developing a bit
later, may be accompanied by at least increasing boundary-layer
destabilization off the south Atlantic coast.

Otherwise, across and inland of coastal areas, through most of the
U.S., generally stable conditions are likely to prevail with
negligible risk for thunderstorms.

..Kerr.. 12/13/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 140811
SWODY3
SPC AC 140810

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity of North Carolina and Gulf coastal areas of the northern
Florida Peninsula Wednesday, posing at least some risk for severe
weather.

...Synopsis...
Little change in the general large-scale pattern is expected from
Tuesday into Wednesday. Stable conditions will prevail across much
of the U.S., except along a northwestward sloping frontal zone
extending across the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Aside from parts of northern
Florida/the northern Florida Peninsula, the surface front is
expected to mostly remain offshore. However, moisture return above
the frontal inversion, inland of coastal areas, may contribute to
areas of very weak CAPE. This may contribute to at least low
probabilities for convection capable of producing lightning, as a
vigorous remnant short wave perturbation rapidly accelerates
northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Initially, there may be a couple of developing waves along the
frontal zone, one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another
off the South Carolina coast. However, as the mid-level
perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast, the trailing wave is
expected to weaken as the lead wave becomes more prominent.
Substantive further deepening is forecast as a developing cyclone
center tracks near or across the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity
into areas off the Mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday evening.

...Eastern North Carolina...
There appears at least some possibility that the track of the
developing cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing
warm sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, it probably will
be in the presence of wind profiles characterized by strong
deep-layer shear and sizable, clockwise curved low-level hodographs,
supportive of supercell convection posing potential to produce a
tornado or damaging wind gusts.

...Northern Florida/Florida Peninsula...
A signal exists in the latest model output that a cluster of
thunderstorms will spread into coastal areas by Wednesday afternoon.
Initially supported by moderate boundary-layer CAPE over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, an organized line of vigorous
thunderstorms may develop along the leading edge of this cluster, in
the presence of sheared, 30-50+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer
mean flow. Although the environment may become progressively less
stable into coastal areas, with instability inland also remaining
poor, it is possible that a damaging wind/isolated tornado risk
could at least develop into coastal areas between Tampa and the Big
Bend vicinity, before diminishing.

..Kerr.. 12/14/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor from eastern Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley may see some weak thunderstorm activity late Friday night.

...Discussion...
Little change to the general mid/upper flow regime is expected from
Thursday into Friday. With stable conditions initially prevalent,
this will probably be maintained across most areas through the
period.

However, boundary-layer moistening ongoing across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico early Friday likely will continue, with an
increasingly moist southerly return flow developing across and
inland of the northwestern Gulf coast Friday through Friday night.

This is expected to occur as one short wave trough, within the main
belt of westerlies impacting the U.S., progresses east of the
southern Rockies.

Models indicate that this trough will be accompanied by a 60-80 kt
cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level jet across the southern Great
Plains. To the equatorward side of this jet, relatively warm and
warming air aloft seems likely to initially cap the low-level
moisture return, which is also expected to be elevated above a
residual near-surface stable layer inland of the Gulf coast. While
the stronger mid/upper support for ascent will remain displaced well
to the north of the Gulf coast (across the central Great Plains into
the middle Mississippi Valley), it does appear that weak mid-level
cooling may begin to overspread the moistening southerly return flow
by late Friday night. This may yield scattered weak thunderstorm
activity from northeast Texas toward the Mississippi Delta, and
perhaps southward into upper Texas coastal areas, by 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 12/16/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 170756
SWODY3
SPC AC 170755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Thu Dec 17 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Much of North America will remain under the influence of branching
westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude and subtropical Pacific,
but broad mid/upper ridging developing within this regime may spread
inland of the Pacific coast during this period. Downstream, as one
short wave trough digs across the southern Rockies and another
southeast of the Canadian Prairies, it appears that a short wave
trough, initially over the southern Great Plains at 12Z Saturday,
will pivot east-northeastward through the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by late Saturday night.

A significant surface cyclone, initially developing to the lee of
the Canadian Rockies, is forecast to accompany the northern
perturbation into northwestern Ontario by the end of the period.
Models indicate that this will trail an initially more significant
cyclone over Hudson Bay, with a developing cold front within weak
surface troughing trailing southward across the upper Great Lakes
into the southeastern Great Plains. However, they suggest little in
the way of substantive wave development along this boundary as it
continues to shift east of the Mississippi Valley.

Modest moisture return emanating from the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico may reach northwestern Gulf coastal areas by 12Z Saturday.
While this may spread inland across upper Texas coastal areas,
mostly above a residual surface based stable layer, it appears that
it will only contribute to very weak CAPE as far north as the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Southeastern Great Plains into Gulf States...
Weak destabilization associated with pre-cold frontal elevated
moisture return may support increasing convection capable of
producing lightning in a corridor across northeastern Texas through
central Arkansas early Saturday. This likely will be aided by
forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching short wave trough.

As the short wave impulse turns east-northeast of the southern Great
Plains, models suggest that one tightening low-level thermal
gradient ahead of the cold front (roughly in the 925-850 mb layer),
near its intersection, may provide a focus for continuing weak
thunderstorm activity. Due to spread among the various model
output, how far east remains a little unclear, but low probabilities
for thunderstorms may extend as far east as north central Georgia by
late Saturday night.

Models suggest that another corridor of favorable ascent may support thunderstorm development southeastward into better low-level
moisture and instability across southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana. However, any intensification into more vigorous
thunderstorms capable of posing an appreciable severe threat
probably will be confined to northwestern into north central Gulf of
Mexico.

..Kerr.. 12/17/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 180742
SWODY3
SPC AC 180741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central and
eastern Gulf Coast regions on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic upper flow is expected to be in place over the
central and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. Two shortwave
troughs are forecast to exist within this troughing early Sunday,
one extending from the Upper OH Valley into AL/GA and the other from
the central Plains through southern High Plains. The lead shortwave
is forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and
offshore while the shortwave continues southeastward through the
Mid/Lower MS Valley and TN Valley/Southeast.

A surface low is expected to be centered just off the southeastern
LA coast at the beginning of the period. This low will likely then
track gradually eastward very near the central Gulf Coast throughout
the day before shifting northeastward over northern FL and ending
the period just off the GA/SC coast. Given the expected path of this
low, inland penetration of the warm sector will be minimal. A few
lightning flashes are possible amid the weak buoyancy and modest
ascent near the surface low and along the attendant cold front. If
the system is more progressive, it could contribute to higher
lightning potential across central/southern FL. However, low
predictability limits expanding the thunder area into more of
central/south FL with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 12/18/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 190725
SWODY3
SPC AC 190724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Lead shortwave trough will likely move off the GA/Mid-Atlantic Coast
Monday morning while another shortwave trough moves through the
Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and OH Valley. Farther west, a
strong shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Pacific
Northwest late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

At the surface, stable conditions are expected in the wake of the GA/Mid-Atlantic shortwave trough, with offshore trajectories keeping
low-level moisture offshore. The lack of low-level moisture and
instability will preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 12/19/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 200801
SWODY3
SPC AC 200759

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging is anticipated to be in place over the central
CONUS early Tuesday, with shortwave troughs flanking on either side.
Overall pattern is expected to progress eastward with the western
CONUS shortwave trough moving east-southeastward while deepening.
This deepening may lead to bifurcation of the wave, with the
southern portion over the Four Corners region early Wednesday.

At the surface, lee troughing is expected to deepen ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated
over the northern High Plains, with the resulting low moving
eastward across the northern Plains. Secondary cyclogenesis is
possible over the central High Plains late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. By 12Z Wednesday, an expansive area of low
pressure encompassing both of these lows will cover much of the
Plains and MS Valley.

A strong cold front attendant to these surface lows will sweep
across the northern and central Plains. However, low-level moisture
will be confined to central/south TX, and the resulting lack of
buoyancy will preclude thunderstorm development along the front.

..Mosier.. 12/20/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 210808
SWODY3
SPC AC 210808

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas
across the central Gulf Coast into the western Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
A deep surface low is forecast to be centered over east-central
MN/northwest WI early Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will
extend southwestward from the low across the Ozark Plateau and into north-central TX before arcing more westward through the TX Permian
Basin. This front is expected to surge southward/southeastward
throughout the day as the parent surface low moves eastward over the
Upper Great Lakes and gradually occludes.

At the same time, upper troughing initially extending from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into the central Rockies is expected to
deepen significantly as it progresses eastward. Additionally,
mid-level flow surrounding the trough will strengthen. By early
Thursday morning, a large corridor of 100+kt 500-mb winds is
expected to extend from the Lower MS Valley through the Upper Great
Lakes into southeastern Ontario.

Modest moisture advection associated with this system will likely
result in low to mid 60s dewpoints from central/east TX into
southern AL/MS and the FL Panhandle ahead of surging cold front.
Widespread cloud cover will temper daytime heating and, along with
poor lapse rates, will contribute to limited buoyancy. Even so,
strong vertical shear supports organized storm structures with any mature/persistent updrafts. Based on current guidance, highest
probability of severe storms appears to be across the western FL
Panhandle early Thursday when the strengthening low-level flow
aligns with the limited buoyancy.

..Mosier.. 12/21/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 220831
SWODY3
SPC AC 220829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Tue Dec 22 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN SC...COASTAL NC...AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Florida Panhandle and adjacent southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia early Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are also expected
across the Mid-Atlantic States Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from northwestern Ontario
into central Mexico early Thursday morning. Strong flow aloft will
extend throughout the periphery of this upper trough. Shortwave
trough embedded within the base of this larger trough will likely be
moving through the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains early Thursday
morning. Continued eastward/northeastward progression of this
shortwave is expected, with the parent upper trough also progressing
eastward. Evolution of the embedded shortwave will help induce a
neutral tilt to the upper trough by Thursday afternoon, and a
slightly negative tilt and closed upper circulation over the OH
Valley by late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

The maturing process of the upper trough will also result in further strengthening of the winds throughout its periphery. By early Friday
morning, 100+ kt 500-mb winds will likely extend from the mid MS
Valley southeastward/eastward through the base of the trough over
the Southeast and then back northeastward into the Northeast. Very
intense low-level flow is also expected, with 60+ kt at 850-mb
extending from the Carolinas through the Mid-Atlantic into Quebec.

Modest severe potential is anticipated early Thursday along and
ahead of the across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL/southwest GA.
In this region, modest instability and strong flow will likely
support a few strong/severe storms. An additional area of
potentially greater severe potential is expected farther north
across the Mid-Atlantic. In this area, a deepening surface low and
strong low-level flow will contribute to robust moisture return as
well as large, looping low-level hodographs. Strong buoyancy is not
expected, but given the very strong vertical shear, even modest
surface-based instability will likely result in severe storms.
Strong to severe storms along the front appear likely, with some
potential for warm-sector storms as well. Given the anticipated
kinematic environment, any deeper warm-sector storms would likely
become supercellular.

..Mosier.. 12/22/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 230815
SWODY3
SPC AC 230814

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough, with an embedded closed circulation over the
middle OH Valley, will cover the eastern CONUS early Friday morning.
Very strong flow aloft will surround this system as it gradually
moves eastward throughout the day. An associated surface low will
begin the period over eastern Ontario/southern Quebec. A cold front
will extend southeastward from this low to just off the southern New
England coast before arcing more southward. With the front already
offshore by early Friday morning and stable conditions in its wake,
no thunderstorms are expected across the central and eastern CONUS.

Farther west, upper ridging initially in place over the western
CONUS will gradually progress eastward as a shortwave trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest. Strong forcing for ascent and cold temperatures aloft will accompany this shortwave, and a lightning
flash or two may occur in the deeper convection within the frontal
band offshore. However, any lightning is not expected to continue
once the band moves onshore.

..Mosier.. 12/23/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 270819
SWODY3
SPC AC 270818

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail may develop
across parts of west-central Texas Tuesday evening into the
overnight period.

...Southern Plains...
The northern part of an upper-level trough is forecast to move
eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday as southwest
mid-level flow strengthens across the southern Plains. In response,
a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet will develop in the southern Plains,
resulting in some moisture return across central and west Texas
Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to advance quickly southeastward into west Texas by Tuesday
evening. Increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front along
with weak destabilization should result in convective development
from southwest Oklahoma into the Low-rolling Plains of west-central
Texas. Although deep-layer shear will likely increase into the 70 to
90 kt range, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the
front. Forecast soundings Tuesday evening into the overnight period
across west-central Texas increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. This
could be enough for a marginal severe threat in the vicinity of San
Angelo as thunderstorms develop and increase in coverage along the
cold front Tuesday evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts would
be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 12/27/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 280805
SWODY3
SPC AC 280804

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the Texas Coastal
Plain.

...Texas Coastal Plain...
An upper-level low is forecast to move east-southeastward across
northern Mexico on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in
place from the southern Plains into the Arklatex. Strong low-level
flow will be maintained across the Texas Coastal Plain resulting in
an increase in moisture during the day. Surface dewpoints are
forecast increase into the 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal
Plain as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Model forecasts
suggest that the strongest instability will develop during the late
afternoon from near Brownsville northward to near Austin, where
MLCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms appear likely to
develop along the front in the afternoon due to increasing surface
temperatures and enhanced low-level convergence. Additional
convection could initiate to the south of the front across southern
sections of the Texas Coastal Plain. In this area, MLCAPE of 1200
J/kg, 0-6 km shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates above 700 mb
would be enough for a marginal severe threat. The threat for hail
and strong wind gusts would be greatest from near Victoria northward
to between Austin and College Station between 21Z/Wed and 00Z/Thu.

..Broyles.. 12/28/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 290821
SWODY3
SPC AC 290820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat and wind
damage will be possible Thursday into Thursday night from far
southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and across the
central Gulf Coast States.

...Southeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast
States...
An upper-level low will move from northern Mexico into the southern
Plains on Thursday. Divergent flow aloft will overspread eastern
Texas and Louisiana as the negatively-tilted system deepens. A large
cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing in southeast
Texas at the start of the period. This convection is forecast to
move eastward as a low deepens and moves northeastward into the
Arklatex. Although instability will be weak along the attendant
surface trough, strong deep-layer shear will create conditions
favorable for severe storms. Lift associated with a mid-level jet,
rounding the base of the upper-level system, will provide additional
support for organized storms. As the mid-level jet moves eastward
across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday, thunderstorm
development is expected to occur across parts of Louisiana and
Mississippi.

Instability is forecast to gradually increase across the moist
sector, which should be located from Louisiana to southwestern
Alabama. Discrete thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold front
across the moist sector could have a wind damage and tornado
potential. During the late afternoon, the most favorable area would
be in far southeast Louisiana, where the models maximize instability
at the northern end of the moist axis. The corridor of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast to shift eastward across southern
Mississippi and southern Alabama during the evening and overnight
period. Models suggest the possibility of a convective line located
along the moist axis. This line would be associated with a continued
wind damage and tornado threat during the overnight period.

..Broyles.. 12/29/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 300754
SWODY3
SPC AC 300754

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible on Friday into Friday night from northern Florida to
southern North Carolina.

...Southeast/Carolinas...
An upper-level low will move northeastward into the mid Mississippi
Valley on Friday as southwest mid-level flow remains from the
Southeast into the Carolinas. By afternoon, a moist airmass will be
located from eastern Alabama to South Carolina. This airmass is
forecast to remain weakly unstable during the day. Thunderstorms are
forecast to first develop in Alabama during the morning and then
spread eastward across Georgia and South Carolina during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 kt across the moist sector
will make conditions supportive of marginally severe storms. The
best chance for a severe threat may develop in the early evening
across parts of South Carolina as moisture advection increases
surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F. As a result, MLCAPE
may peak in the 500 to 750 J/kg range across parts of southern and
eastern South Carolina. The stronger storms could have an isolated
wind damage threat. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible,
associated with storms that remain discrete. The marginal severe
threat may affect parts of southern North Carolina during the late
evening and early overnight period.

..Broyles.. 12/30/2020

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ACUS03 KWNS 310807
SWODY3
SPC AC 310806

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible on Saturday from parts of the eastern Gulf Coast to the
southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Eastern Gulf Coast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
An upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward across the
Ozarks on Saturday as southwest mid-level flow remains from the
Southeast into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to become quasi-stationary on Saturday from the Florida
Panhandle northeastward into far eastern North Carolina. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will allow
for weak destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will
be possible along the axis of instability as low-level convergence
increases during the day. The presence of strong deep-layer shear
may be enough for an isolated wind damage threat, with the threat
maximizing across the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the
Florida Panhandle to eastern South Carolina. The threat may also
affect far eastern North Carolina during the evening as a low-level
jet translates northeastward.

..Broyles.. 12/31/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 010726
SWODY3
SPC AC 010725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning over eastern North
Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
As one shortwave trough moves from the OH Valley into the Northeast,
another will move from the southern Plains into the southeast. Low
pressure over eastern NC at 12Z Sunday will deepen offshore during
the day, enabling the cold front to move quickly offshore. This
front will trail southwestward across FL, but forecast soundings
reveal poor lapse rates and drying winds from the west.

Meanwhile, heights will fall overnight across the Pacific Northwest
as a positive-tilt upper trough approached the WA/OR coasts. While a
few lightning flashes are possible in this region over the Pacific
Ocean, the greatest chance of isolated thunderstorms will be early
in the day over far eastern NC and southeastern VA.

...Eastern NC and southeastern VA...
While height falls with the shortwave trough will be focused from VA
northward, a moist air mass with 60-65 F dewpoints will exist ahead
of the front over eastern NC. Forecast soundings show parcels are
likely to remain elevated over land, the exception being the Outer
Banks. A small time window will exist between 12Z and 15Z Sunday for
storms in this area, with the bulk of the activity offshore. Shear
will be strong, but low-level winds will quickly veer to
southwesterly, reducing SRH over land. While the threat of an
isolated severe storm is non-zero, it remains highly conditional.
North of the low, minimal elevated instability may be present for a
few lightning flashes into VA.

..Jewell.. 01/01/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 011936
SWODY3
SPC AC 011935

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning over eastern North
Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
As one shortwave trough moves from the OH Valley into the Northeast,
another will move from the southern Plains into the southeast. Low
pressure over eastern NC at 12Z Sunday will deepen offshore during
the day, enabling the cold front to move quickly offshore. This
front will trail southwestward across FL, but forecast soundings
reveal poor lapse rates and drying winds from the west.

Meanwhile, heights will fall overnight across the Pacific Northwest
as a positive-tilt upper trough approached the WA/OR coasts. While a
few lightning flashes are possible in this region over the Pacific
Ocean, the greatest chance of isolated thunderstorms will be early
in the day over far eastern NC and southeastern VA.

...Eastern NC and southeastern VA...
While height falls with the shortwave trough will be focused from VA
northward, a moist air mass with 60-65 F dewpoints will exist ahead
of the front over eastern NC. Forecast soundings show parcels are
likely to remain elevated over land, the exception being the Outer
Banks. A small time window will exist between 12Z and 15Z Sunday for
storms in this area, with the bulk of the activity offshore. Shear
will be strong, but low-level winds will quickly veer to
southwesterly, reducing SRH over land. While the threat of an
isolated severe storm is non-zero, it remains highly conditional.
North of the low, minimal elevated instability may be present for a
few lightning flashes into VA.

..Jewell.. 01/01/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 020813
SWODY3
SPC AC 020812

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible Monday across the
coastal Pacific Northwest and into parts of northern California.

...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern will remain amplified, yet progressive on
Monday, with an upper trough over the Southeast and a secondary wave
moving eastward across the Great Lakes. This will reinforce high
pressure from the Plains into the Southeast, providing stability
with continued offshore flow.

To the west, significant height falls will occur during the day from
northern CA into the Pacific Northwest as an amplified shortwave
trough moves ashore around 00Z. Cool air aloft combined with lift
from a cold front may result in isolated to scattered low-topped
showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest lightning flash density
likely offshore. Low-level lapse rates over land will be relatively
poor with little to no heating due to increasing clouds and
precipitation. Due to the weak instability, severe weather is not
anticipated.

..Jewell.. 01/02/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 030556
SWODY3
SPC AC 030555

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Jan 02 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the continental U.S. on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A progressive pattern will persist on Tuesday with an upper trough
departing the East and another trough crossing the Rockies into the
Plains. High pressure will already be in place over the East, with
another reinforcing high over the Great Basin.

Meager low-level moisture return is forecast to occur Tuesday night
across TX, with a shallow layer of 50s F dewpoints possible by 12Z
Wed into central TX. This will occur ahead of a cold front preceding
the northern/central Plains upper trough. Despite the low-level
moistening, there is no chance of thunderstorms as capping will
remain prominent with a cool boundary layer.

..Jewell.. 01/03/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 050633
SWODY3
SPC AC 050632

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Tue Jan 05 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible Thursday from southeast Louisiana
eastward into Georgia and northern Florida.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Thursday, a shortwave trough with closed low centered over AR
will move east across the southeastern States, and into GA by 12Z
Friday. Strong westerly winds aloft will exist south of the upper
low, with up to 80 kt winds at 500 mb within the jet core.
Temperatures at 500 mb will be as cold as -20 C along the central
Gulf Coast, steepening midlevel lapse rates.

The presence of high pressure over the Southeast ahead of this upper
trough will retard low-level moisture return, and also limit
low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front
over southern MS, AL and the FL Panhandle indicate that the most
unstable parcels may remain elevated, with minimal SBCAPE. Given
this cool boundary layer, severe storms appear unlikely. However,
shear will conditionally be favorable for supercells and even
tornadoes if better-than-expected moisture return occurs, and the
low remains over land. In this case, isolated supercells could not
be ruled out along the immediate MS/AL/FL Panhandle coasts. Will
defer any potential risk areas to later updates when predictability
increases.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may develop over parts of the
Pacific Northwest Thursday night as a powerful midlevel jet noses
into northern CA, with 500 mb temperatures dropping to -30 C.

..Jewell.. 01/05/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 060624
SWODY3
SPC AC 060624

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Wed Jan 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
There is little chance of thunderstorms over the continental United
States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will be situated over the Southeast Friday
morning, with a surface low off the SC coast. A cold front will
trail southwest over south FL early in the day, but rapid drying
will occur from the west, and thunderstorms are not expected. High
pressure will stretch from the Plains into the Gulf of Mexico,
maintaining stable conditions.

To the west, a shortwave trough will be near the coastal Pacific
Northwest early in the day, but will move east during the afternoon
with height rises along the coast. While minimal elevated CAPE may
be present early, the trend is expected to be toward little to no
thunderstorms throughout the day.

..Jewell.. 01/06/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 070721
SWODY3
SPC AC 070720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible late Saturday night over parts of
central Texas. Severe weather is not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move southeast across the Four Corners and into
northwest TX by Sunday morning, with a cyclonically curved speed max
nosing into west TX by 00Z. Strong height falls will occur over much
of TX overnight, increasing lift.

While very little boundary-layer moisture return will occur ahead of
this system due to a surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, forecast
soundings do yield minimal elevated MUCAPE as a southerly low-level
jet increases moisture advection aloft. At least isolated,
non-severe thunderstorms are expected after 09Z roughly along I-35
in TX, but weak instability will limit severe potential.

..Jewell.. 01/07/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 080630
SWODY3
SPC AC 080629

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CST Fri Jan 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible from parts of southeast Texas
into southern Louisiana. Severe weather is unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move east across TX and toward the lower MS
Valley on Sunday, providing strong southwest flow aloft along with
height falls. Ahead of this trough, a cool/stable air mass due to
high pressure will exist, and will prevent any appreciable
destabilization. Models indicate the surface low associated with
this trough will remain over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thus there
is little chance of SBCAPE developing over land. However, weak
elevated instability is expected to develop from southeast TX into
southern LA, supporting general thunderstorm activity.

..Jewell.. 01/08/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 090652
SWODY3
SPC AC 090650

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sat Jan 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little if any thunderstorm activity is expected across the
continental U.S. on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves from the lower MS
valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Monday, with a broad belt of
strong mid and upper-level southwesterlies over the southeastern
states. At the surface, a stable air mass will remain in place over
land, despite a weak surface low moving across northern FL and
southern GA into Tuesday morning. Dewpoints downstream of the low
are only expected to reach the 45-50 F range, resulting in very
little SBCAPE for thunderstorms. While weak warm/moist advection
will occur above 850 mb across GA and the Carolinas Monday night,
forecast soundings show very little elevated instability. As such,
thunderstorm chances will be minimal.

..Jewell.. 01/09/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 100703
SWODY3
SPC AC 100702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A stable pattern will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday as
a shortwave trough quickly exits the Mid Atlantic early in the day.
High pressure will spread across the Plains and Southeast, centered
over the Four Corners, and this will shunt any appreciable low-level
moisture offshore. To the west, strong southwest flow aloft will
persist through the period over the Pacific Northwest as a strong
jet max approaches Vancouver Island into Tuesday morning. Given that
the midlevel temperature gradient will be north of the Canadian
border, little if any CAPE is expected over WA or OR.

..Jewell.. 01/10/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 110650
SWODY3
SPC AC 110649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected over the contiguous U.S. on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move east across the southeastern states on
Wednesday, with a dry and stable air mass at the surface. The stable
air mass will also exist across the Plains, ahead of a potent
northern Rockies trough with a surface low deepening over SK and MB.
Therefore, despite this deepening upper trough Wednesday night,
thunderstorms are not expected due to lack of CAPE.

Elsewhere, an upper ridge will exist along the West Coast, with
stable conditions there as well.

..Jewell.. 01/11/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 130725
SWODY3
SPC AC 130724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland Friday.

...Discussion...

A closed synoptic upper low will be centered across the Midwest
early Friday. This feature will move slowly east through the OH and
TN Valleys during the day. The accompanying occluded surface low
will weaken across the Great Lakes, while secondary cyclogenesis is
forecast near the Mid Atlantic coast late in the period. A front
will initially extend from the occluded low over the Great Lakes,
southeast through the southern Appalachians into the Gulf Coast
States. The front will continue east and off the Atlantic seaboard
by late Friday night. Bands of precipitation will likely occur in
vicinity of this boundary. However, very limited moisture return and
meager to no instability should preclude thunderstorm development.

..Dial.. 01/13/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 140744
SWODY3
SPC AC 140744

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Ohio Valley and central Appalachians...

The synoptic upper low centered over the OH Valley Saturday morning
will move generally northeast, reaching the Northeast U.S. Saturday
night. A dry continental polar airmass will reside across the OH
Valley. Weak instability resulting from surface heating, cold air
aloft and mid-level forcing for ascent attending vorticity maxima
rotating through the upper low circulation will contribute to a few
mostly snow showers. However, it appears the convective layer depth
and degree of instability will remain insufficient for
thunderstorms.

..Dial.. 01/14/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 150727
SWODY3
SPC AC 150726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland Sunday.

An upper trough will amplify and move through the eastern U.S. on
Sunday with offshore flow over the Gulf Coast as well as along the
Atlantic Seaboard. This pattern should maintain stable conditions
inland, precluding a threat for thunderstorms.

..Dial.. 01/15/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 160809
SWODY3
SPC AC 160808

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States
on Monday or Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move east-southeastward across
the upper Mississippi Valley as zonal flow remains in place over the
southern tier of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will be
located across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. This will prevent
moisture return limiting the potential for thunderstorm development
across the continental United States Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/16/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 170810
SWODY3
SPC AC 170809

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Non-severe thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of
the southern Plains from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will remain south of the southern California
Coast on Tuesday as an upper-level ridge moves slowly across the
central Rockies and southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass
is forecast to be in place across south-central Texas. Thunderstorm
development occur in the Texas Hill Country Tuesday afternoon and
evening along the northwestern edge of the moist airmass. However,
instability is forecast to be very weak, suggesting the convection
will remain sub-severe. Elsewhere across the continental United
States, thunderstorm development is not expected Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

..Broyles.. 01/17/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 180814
SWODY3
SPC AC 180813

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the continental
United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the U.S. on
Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be in place
from the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf Coast States. This
will prevent moisture return limiting the potential for
thunderstorms across the continental United States on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/18/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 200708
SWODY3
SPC AC 200707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected across the U.S. Friday.

...Discussion...
Substantial amplification of the large-scale pattern is expected
Friday, as the short-wave trough digging southeastward across the
northwestern U.S. at the start of the period strengthens with time.
By the end of the period, broad/high-amplitude cyclonic flow will
prevail over the entire western U.S., with the positively tilted
trough axis extending from Montana to central California.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies
through the period, while a cold front shifts across the
Southwest/southern Rockies through the period.

With dry/stable conditions prevailing east of the Rockies,
thunderstorms are not expected. In the West, cold air/steep lapse
rates aloft -- associated with the upper trough -- will support scattered/showery convection. While a lightning flash or two cannot
be ruled out, any coverage would likely be less than 10%.

..Goss.. 01/20/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 210758
SWODY3
SPC AC 210757

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Discussion...
Slow progression of the upper pattern is expected Saturday, as the
main feature of interest -- the upper trough over the West --
continues a slow southeasterly advance. As this occurs, downstream
flow across the central and into the eastern U.S. will take on
gradual anticyclonic curvature in response.

At the surface, high pressure will remain prevalent east of the
Rockies, though a cold front crossing the Desert Southwest and
southern Rockies is progged to eventually reach the central and
southern Plains.

Similar to Friday, showers will accompany the advance of the upper
system across the West, as cold air/steep lapse rates aloft spread
slowly eastward. While a few lightning flashes may again occur over
parts of the West, anticipated coverage appears insufficient to
warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area.

..Goss.. 01/21/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 220750
SWODY3
SPC AC 220749

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Mean long-wave upper troughing is forecast to remain over the
western U.S. this period, as smaller-scale/short-wave troughs rotate
through the broader cyclonic flow field. The first of these --
initially lying across southern California and northern Baja, is
expected to shift eastward across the Desert Southwest and southern
Rockies, and then reach the southern High Plains region as a
negatively tilted, deamplifying impulse late in the period.
Meanwhile, the second short-wave feature will lie just off the
western Canada coast initially, with an associated/elongated
north-south lobe of vorticity extending from Alaska to just off the
Pacific Northwest coast. With time, the short-wave energy will dig
southward along the West Coast, to a position just inland by the end
of the period -- thus reinforcing the pre-existing long-wave trough.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the initial short-wave
trough ejecting across the Southwest will move across New Mexico and
later Texas. East of this system, a west-to-east baroclinic zone
will become established across the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys through the end of the period.

With much of the CONUS remaining cool and stable through the period,
deep convective potential will be limited to the southwestern and
south-central portions of the country. Cold air/steep lapse rates
aloft accompanying the upper system will support potential for
sporadic lightning flashes across portions of the Four Corners
states. Later, as downstream warm advection increases across the
south-central U.S., elevated convection -- including scattered
thunderstorms -- will likely evolve during the second half of the
period. Muted instability, however, precludes appreciable risk for
severe storms.

..Goss.. 01/22/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 230831
SWODY3
SPC AC 230829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday across the CONUS.

...Discussion...
A persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is progged to remain in
place Monday, while anticyclonic westerlies prevail over most of the
East. A short-wave trough -- ejecting from the western long wave --
is expected to deamplify with time as it shifts east-northeastward
out of the central and southern Plains, and crosses the Midwest/Ohio
Valley region into the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a second
short-wave trough -- elongated in a north-south orientation along
the western NOAM Coast early -- is forecast to shift gradually
inland.

As this western feature slowly progresses, showers -- and areas of occasional/embedded lightning -- are expected, from the West Coast
states into the Great Basin/Four Corners states. Meanwhile, showers
and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the southeastern
quarter of the country -- as far north as the Ohio Valley and
Mason/Dixon line.

Early in the period, a few stronger storms may be ongoing across the
Arklatex region, near an Arkansas surface low and trailing cold
front. Any lingering/low-end severe risk appears at this time
insufficient to warrant any severe-weather probabilities. As the
low/front, and associated area of convection -- continues eastward
into a more stable environment, potential for robust convection
should gradually diminish with time.

..Goss.. 01/23/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 240820
SWODY3
SPC AC 240819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
As an upper low/trough over the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward
toward the West Coast, a trough/low over the Great Basin/Desert
Southwest will be kicked east-northeastward across the central and
southern Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains. As this
occurs, weak cyclogenesis is expected into the second half of the
period over the western Gulf of Mexico vicinity, along a remnant
baroclinic zone.

Showers, and a few thunderstorms, are expected across portions of
the central and southern Appalachians/southeastern U.S. early in the
period. Some increase in shower/thunderstorm activity may occur
during the second half of the period just a bit farther west, into
the lower Mississippi Valley area and central Gulf Coast states, as
low-level warm advection increases in response to the approach of
the next system. However, with the boundary layer expected to
remain slightly stable, and elevated instability minimal, convection
should remain generally weak/disorganized.

Elsewhere, showers -- and an occasional/embedded lightning flash --
are expected across portions of the Southwest.

..Goss.. 01/24/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 250830
SWODY3
SPC AC 250830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
A fast-moving short-wave trough -- progged to be exiting the central
and southern Plains region early in the period, will continue
tracking eastward, clearing the East Coast overnight. Meanwhile,
sharp upper troughing will remain aligned roughly along the West
Coast through the period. In between, ridging aloft will exist,
with anticyclonic flow expanding to include most of the U.S. by the
end of the period, in the wake of the departing eastern system.

At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail over most of the
country. A surface front lying across the Southeast and into the
Gulf will sag southward with time, as a weak frontal wave moves off
the southeastern U.S. coast. Overnight, this front should cross the
Florida Peninsula, reaching far south Florida and the Keys by
28/12Z.

Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast, in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface
boundary. Weak instability suggests disorganized -- and for the
most part elevated -- convection. Elsewhere, showers will affect
portions of the West Coast in the vicinity of the nearly stationary
upper trough, but any sporadic lightning flashes inland should
remain few and far between, insufficient for inclusion of a 10%
thunder area.

..Goss.. 01/25/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 260749
SWODY3
SPC AC 260748

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Thursday.

...Discussion...
The upper pattern over the U.S. will continue to feature troughs
near both the East and West Coasts, and a broad area of anticyclonic
flow covering central portions of the country. Some evolution with
respect to the eastern trough is expected, as one shorter-wavelength
feature shifts into the western Atlantic, and is replaced by a low
advancing southeastward out of Canada and into the Northeast.
Meanwhile, the more steady-state western trough will make very slow
eastward progress toward the West Coast.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies, with ridging/continental air spreading southward across nearly the entire
Gulf of Mexico. In the West, a weak Pacific front will move
gradually onshore, in advance of the aforementioned upper system.

Showers are expected over the West Coast area through much of the
period, as the trough aloft slowly advances. Although an
occasional/isolated lightning flash may occur inland within the
broader area of weak/low-topped convection, coverage is currently
expected to remain too sparse to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder
area.

..Goss.. 01/26/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 270831
SWODY3
SPC AC 270830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...Discussion...
An upper low/trough over the Northeast will gradually drift
eastward/offshore, ahead of the much-more aggressive advance of the
western U.S. trough toward the central and southern Plains. This
trough, with embedded short-wave energy lying just of the southern
CA coast at the start of the period, will advance quickly eastward
across the Southwest, acquiring negative tilt with time as it
reaches the central/southern High Plains Saturday morning.

As this trough advances, surface cyclogenesis will occur, likely in
the southern Rockies vicinity. In response, southerly low-level
flow will permit above-surface theta-e advection to increase. With
remnants of the surface cP airmass lingering, surface-based
convection is not expected. However, showers over the Southwest
will expand eastward with time, with an increase in elevated
convection expected across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region late.
Lightning flashes will likely be embedded within this area of
convection as it spreads eastward, though overall should remain
sporadic through the period.

..Goss.. 01/27/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 280815
SWODY3
SPC AC 280813

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Discussion...
A mid-level low/short-wave trough initially expected to be centered
over the central/southern High Plains region, is forecast to move
steadily east-northeastward through the period. The feature should
reach the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity during the evening, and
then continue into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region overnight.

At the surface, an accompanying low is forecast to move across
Oklahoma/Kansas and into Missouri by evening, and then reach the
southern Illinois/southern Indiana area by Sunday morning. A
trailing cold front will move southeastward across the southern
Plains, and later across the Lower Mississippi Valley area and into
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Showers will accompany the advance of the surface system,
particularly during the second half of the period across the
Tennessee Valley region and southward across the central Gulf Coast
states. A few lightning flashes are expected nearer the pool of
colder air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper system
as it shifts east-northeastward with time, within a zone from the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity east-northeastward into Illinois.

..Goss.. 01/28/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 290708
SWODY3
SPC AC 290707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a mature/stacked
cyclone will be centered over the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys early
Sunday. This system is then expected to move eastward as a shortwave
trough moves through it base, contributing to some re-strengthening
of the cyclone as well as secondary surface cyclogenesis over the
southern Appalachians and Carolina Piedmont. The resulting surface
low is then expected to track northeastward along the wedge front
and off NC coast by early Monday morning.

Modest low to mid-level moisture is forecast to be in place ahead of
this secondary surface low and its attendant cold front. Some
overlap will exist between this moisture and the moderate mid/upper
level flow surrounding the parent cyclone, primarily across northern
FL and southern GA. Given the strong vertical shear, some potential
for stronger storms exists in this area. However, limited heating
and poor lapse rates will temper buoyancy and the current
expectation is for only isolated thunderstorm coverage with little
severe potential.

..Mosier.. 01/29/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 300731
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will feature a
western CONUS ridge and an eastern CONUS trough early Monday
morning. These features are expected to move gradually eastward
throughout the day, with the upper trough ending the period
extending southward along the East Coast and the upper ridge
covering much of the central CONUS. An additional shortwave trough
will likely extend from British Columbia southwestward into the
northwest Pacific Ocean early Tuesday morning.

Dry and stable conditions are anticipated across the CONUS, with the
lack of buoyancy precluding thunderstorm development. A few deeper
convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated
with the surface low attendant to the British Columbia shortwave as
it moves ashore. However, lightning coverage should remain less than
10%.

..Mosier.. 01/30/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 310806
SWODY3
SPC AC 310805

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will cover a majority of the CONUS west of the MS
River early Tuesday morning, while upper troughing will extend along
the East Coast. The East Coast trough is then expected to become
increasingly negatively tilted as a shortwave trough progresses
through its base while an embedded upper low drifts over the
Northeast. The upper ridge is forecast to gradually dampen as it
moves across the Plains and into the MS Valley.

Lastly, upper trough initially extending from British Columbia into
the northeast Pacific will move eastward throughout the period. This
trough, which will feature very cold air aloft, will likely stretch
from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward to a strong
embedded shortwave trough off the central/southern CA coast early
Wednesday morning.

Stable conditions are expected throughout the majority of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm potential. Deeper convective cores could
materialize within the frontal band moving through the Pacific
Northwest, where cold mid-level temperatures could result in a
lightning flash or two. Limited coverage and low potential for
occurrence precludes introducing any thunder areas.

..Mosier.. 01/31/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 010726
SWODY3
SPC AC 010725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Mon Feb 01 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern early Wednesday morning is expected to feature an
upper ridge over the central CONUS, flanked by two upper troughs.
Eastern upper trough will likely extend from the Northeast States to
the Bahamas while the western trough extends from the Canadian
Prairie Provinces to off the southern CA coast.

This overall pattern is forecast to move eastward, dominated by the
western CONUS troughing and its embedded shortwaves. Eastward
progression of this trough will result in surface cyclogenesis
across the High Plains, with the most dominant low emerging out of
the central High Plains and ending the period over eastern KS.

Significant cold air aloft will accompany this trough, with -30 deg
C at 500 mb reaching eastern UT/western CO by early Thursday.
Resultant steep mid-level lapse rates could result in deeper
convection as the upper trough approaches the central Rockies. A few
flashes may result, but profiles are generally expected to remain
entirely below freezing, limiting the charge separation needed for
lightning production. Stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 02/01/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 020826
SWODY3
SPC AC 020825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A broad and deep upper trough is forecast to cover much of the
western and central CONUS early Thursday morning, with modest upper
ridging in place east of this trough, from the TN Valley into
Quebec. A shortwave trough embedded within the larger trough is
expected to progress quickly eastward/northeastward across the
central Plains, and Mid MS/OH Valleys, reaching the Lower Great
Lakes region by early Friday morning. At the same time, another
shortwave trough is expected to move through the western periphery
of the parent trough, traversing over the Great Basin and Southwest
into the southern High Plains. Evolution of these waves will result
in broad upper troughing covering the entire CONUS by early Friday
morning.

The surface pattern early Thursday is expected to feature a large
trough from the southern Plains into western Ontario. Primary
surface low within this trough is forecast to move swiftly
northeastward throughout the day, progressing from eastern KS into
Lower MI. Cold front attendant to this low will sweep quickly eastward/southeastward, ending the period extended from Lower MI
southeastward into the Upper OH Valley and then back southwestward
into the central Gulf of Mexico.

Modest mid-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front from
the southern Plains through the Southeast. However, the stronger
forcing for ascent and the colder temperatures will remain displaced
north of the better low-level moisture. Additionally, widespread
cloud cover will limit heating. Consequently, the lack of buoyancy
will preclude thunderstorm development. Even with the expected lack
of thunderstorms, shallow convection near the surface low coupled
with strong low/mid-level flow could result convectively augmented
gusts across portions of the Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys.

..Mosier.. 02/02/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 030737
SWODY3
SPC AC 030736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 03 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing is expected to be in place over the majority
of the CONUS early Friday. Several shortwave trough will be embedded
within this parent trough, the strongest of which will likely mature
further it moves from the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario.

A cold and stable continental air mass will dominate sensible
weather for most areas, precluding thunderstorm development. The
only exception is ahead of the cold front moving through GA and FL.
Modest low-level moisture will precede the front, but buoyancy will
be tempered by limited heating and poor lapse rates. A few flashes
are possible, particularly Friday morning across the FL Panhandle,
but coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

..Mosier.. 02/03/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 040752
SWODY3
SPC AC 040751

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Thu Feb 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will be maintained across the CONUS throughout
the entire period, supported by several embedded shortwave troughs.
One of these shortwave troughs is forecast to extend across the central/southern High Plains early Saturday. Expectation is for this
shortwave to progress eastward throughout the day, reaching the
Lower MO Valley/Ozark Plateau by Saturday evening and the TN Valley
by early Sunday morning.

A stationary front will likely extend from central FL westward
across the central Gulf of Mexico at the beginning of the period.
Eastward progression of the aforementioned shortwave will likely
induce modest moisture return, with the stationary front
transitioning to a warm from as it gradually moves northward.
Surface cyclogenesis is also anticipated along this boundary, with
the resulting low then tracking northeastward across the central FL
Peninsula.

Some enhancement of the mid/upper level flow is also anticipated as
this wave and attendant surface low move across FL, resulting in a
kinematic environment supportive of organized storms. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the thermodynamics, particularly in
the warm sector ahead of the low where antecedent warm low to
mid-level temperatures may limit deep convection. Currently, much of
the thunderstorm activity is expected to be elevated north of the
warm front. Even so, severe probabilities may be needed in later
outlooks if the probability for warm-sector storms increases and/or
the location of the front becomes more certain.

..Mosier.. 02/04/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 060748
SWODY3
SPC AC 060747

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough will persist across much of the CONUS on
Monday. A series of shortwave impulses will pivot across the Plains,
inducing weak surface low development over OK/TX. This low will
develop eastward toward AR/LA, while a cold front dives south across
the southern Plains. As the low shifts east, a warm front will lift
northward across northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida, stalling near
the coast, from southern LA to northern FL. Widespread showers and a
few elevated thunderstorms will impact the central Gulf
Coast/Southeast vicinity in this warm advection regime late in the
period. However, weak forcing for ascent in the warm sector across
south FL, and modest buoyancy in the warm advection regime will
limit severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 070732
SWODY3
SPC AC 070731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough will remain over the CONUS on Tuesday. A
shortwave impulse migrating through this larger-scale trough will
dig across the southwestern U.S., resulting in weak surface lee
troughing over the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front
will move offshore the northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts, while a
stationary boundary remains draped across central TX and the
northern Gulf coast. As the upper shortwave trough pivots eastward
across the Southwest, south/southwesterly low level flow will
continue to support warm advection and isentropic ascent along the
Gulf coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be
possible, though forcing will remain weak and any appreciable
instability will remain offshore, precluding severe thunderstorm
potential.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 080737
SWODY3
SPC AC 080736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Mon Feb 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A low level warm advection regime will continue across parts of TX
through the Gulf coast region on Wednesday ahead of an upper trough
ejecting eastward into the Plains. In the low levels, an arctic air
mass will surge south/southeast across the southern Plains and
mid-MS/lower OH Valleys. By Thursday morning, the arctic front will
extend from the central Appalachians to northern LA, arcing
west/southwest across east TX into the Edwards Plateau.

A moist air mass will exist ahead of the front from southern/eastern
TX through the central Gulf coast. While weak instability will exist
across the warm sector, where dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s F dewpoints, any thunderstorm activity will likely be
elevated on the cool side of the boundary in strong isentropic
ascent. Furthermore, any storms that develop in the warm sector
would likely be quickly undercut by the south/southeastward surging
cold front given shear vectors parallel to the boundary. While a
strong storm or two can not be ruled out, overall severe potential
appears low at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2021

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