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All on Tuesday, October 13, 2020 16:18:00
WTIN20 DEMS 130700
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES,NEW
DELHI
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 13.10.2020
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 13.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 13.10.2020.
BAY OF BENGAL:
THE SYSTEM CROSSED NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST CLOSE TO KAKINADA
(NEAR LAT. 17.0ON & LONG 82.4O E) BETWEEN 0100 & 0200 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 13TH OCTOBER 2020, AS A DEEP DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED OF 55-65 KMPH GUSTING TO 75 KMPH. MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 24 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS IT LAY CENTRED AT 0300
UTC
OF TODAY, THE 13TH OCTOBER, 2020 NEAR LATITUDE 17.0ON AND LONGITUDE
82.1OE, ABOUT 15 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAKINADA (43189) AND 200 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KHAMMAM (43137).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND FURTHER WEAKEN INTO A WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS.
THE DEEP DEPRESSION IS BEING MONITORED BY COASTAL DOPPLER WEATHER
RADARS OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185), VISAKHAPATNAM (43149) AND GOPALPUR
(43049). AS PER RADAR IMAGERIES THE RAIN BANDS LIE ALONG THE COASTAL
DISTRICTS OF ANDHRA PRADESH AND ADJOINING INTERIOR DISTRICTS.
MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO LIES OVER SOUTH ODISHA AND TELANGANA.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF
LAT.0N/LONG.0E) SURFACE WIND SPEED
CYCLONICDISTURBANCE
(KMPH)
13.10.20/0300 17.0/82.1 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
13.10.20/0600 17.3/81.4 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION
13.10.20/1200 17.6/80.3 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
13.10.20/1800 17.9/79.2 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 WELL MARKED LOW
AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 13TH OCTOBER, THE
SYSTEM LAY OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND NEIGHBOURHOOD,
OVERLAND. THE CLOUDS ARE SHEARED TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH COAST &
ADJOINING TELANGANA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
IS -93OC.
KHAMMAM (43137) REPOTRED 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 5.7 HPA, KAKINADA
(43189) 4.3 HPA AND MACHILIPATNAM 5.6 HPA AT 0300 UTC OF 13TH OCTOBER
2020.
ARABIAN SEA:
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA AND COMORIN.
THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT OF EXISTING DEEP DEPRESSION
OVER BAY OF BENGAL AFTER CROSSING THE PENINSULAR INDIA WOULD EMERGE
INTO EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF NORTH
KONKAN-SOUTH
GUJARAT COASTS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 16TH MORNING. THERE IS
LOW
TO MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR IT'S INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION
THEREAFTER OVER THE SAME REGION.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL NIL LOW MODERATE
REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4
WITH
AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 24
HOURS.
THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE
THAN 1.
THUS, MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
THE BAY
OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 5 DAYS. CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, THE
SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29- 30\U02DAC OVER ENTIRE BOB, ANDAMAN
SEA AND EASTERN PARTS OF ARABIAN SEA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT
POTENTIAL
IS 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF BOB AND EASTERN PARTS OF ARABIAN
SEA.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE VORTICITY IS ABOUT
120X10-6 SEC-1
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL.
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30X10-5SEC-1 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
SYSTEM CENTRE
AND IS NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT
20X10-5SEC-1
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS EAST-WEST ORIENTED. THE
VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS 15-20 KTS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF INDIA AND ALONG & OFF
ANDHRA
PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 210N
OVER NORTHEAST INDIA. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING IN THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE SYSTEM REGION.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS AND PREVAILING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC STEERING
WIND
PATTERN ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
THIS IS THE LAST SPECIAL BULLETIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, ROUTINE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SHALL BE CONTINUED.=
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