WTIN20 DEMS 060549
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 06.09.2020


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
06.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 06.09.2020 .


BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA.


PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:


24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL



ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHYEAST ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


REMARKS:

NIL=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTIN20 DEMS 140549
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 14.09.2020



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
14.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 14.09.2020.



BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAY\U2019S LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS BECOME WELL MARKED AND LAYOVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AND
NEIGHBORHOOD PERSISTS. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAYOVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
AND ADJOINING COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND NEIGHBORHOOD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPARATURE
93.0OC.





SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAYOVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW / MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAYOVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. AND REST ANDAMAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL





ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAYOVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW /
MODERATE CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAYOVER
REST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:





24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL







REMARKS: NIL=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTIN20 DEMS 180600
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 18.09.2020



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
18.09.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 18.09.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & NEIGHBOURHOOD AROUND 20TH
SEPTEMBER,2020.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH & CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,
ANDAMAN SEA .



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL





ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTH ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :





24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL













REMARKS:

NIL=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTIN20 DEMS 040750
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.10.2020



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
04.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 04.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:



1. YESTERDAY\U2019S, LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST AND
ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) OFF ODISHA-NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COASTS LAY OVER NORTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING ODISHA COAST AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH OCTOBER 2020.



AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH OCTOBER
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BOB. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH BOB, SOUTHWEST
BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF BOB.

2. A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BOB AROUND 9TH OCTOBER. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
ODISHA COAST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS


NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL




ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (AS) OFF KONKAN COAST.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH AS.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS


NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL




REMARKS:



MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, ECMWF AND NEPS
ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BOB AROUND 9TH OCTOBER WITH NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST
AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT TWO
DAYS. THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER INDEX IS ALSO INDICATING
POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
CENTRAL BOB DURING 9TH \U2013 10TH OCTOBER.=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTIN20 DEMS 050705
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.10.2020



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
05.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 05.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:



1. YESTERDAY\u2019S, LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL(BOB) AND ADJOINING ODISHA COAST PERSISTED OVER THE SAME
REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 05TH OCTOBER 2020.



AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH OCTOBER
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL BOB. SCATTERED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA.



2. A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BOB AROUND 9TH OCTOBER. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH
AND ODISHA COAST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION
DURING SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL LOW



ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER EC & EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. SCATTERED
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER REST OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA.





PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS :


24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL



REMARKS:



MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, ECMWF AND
NEPS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BOB AROUND 9TH OCTOBER
WITH NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND
ODISHA COAST AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS. THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER INDEX IS ALSO
INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA
AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB DURING 9TH \u2013 10TH OCTOBER.
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTIN20 DEMS 090717
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 09.10.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
09.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 09.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMED OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
IN THE EARLY MORNING (0000 UTC) OF TODAY, THE 09TH OCTOBER 2020. IT
LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
(BOB) IN THE MORNING (0300 UTC) OF TODAY, THE 09TH OCTOBER 2020.

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS & INTENSIFY INTO A
DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL BOB BY TOMORROW, THE 10TH OCTOBER MORNING.
FURTHER MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AS A DEPRESSION DURING THE MORNING OF 12TH
OCTOBER 2020.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 9TH OCTOBER, SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE IS -90OC.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BOB AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.



A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH ANDAMAN
SEA AROUND 14TH OCTOBER.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

MODERATE HIGH HIGH HIGH NIL



ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.


PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL



REMARKS:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR NEXT
TWO DAYS AND WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5 THEREAFTER WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING
MORE THAN 1. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 5 DAYS. CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29- 30\U02DAC OVER
ENTIRE BOB AND OVER ANDAMAN SEA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL
IS 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH & CENTRAL BOB AND ANDAMAN
SEA. IT IS DECREASING BECOMING ABOUT 40-50 KJ/CM2 ALONG THE ANDHRA PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE VORTICITY IS AROUND
80X10-6SEC-1 OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BOB
WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS ABOUT 15X10-5SEC-1 OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL BOB. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 20X10-5SEC-1 TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS HIGH (30-40
KTS) OVER MAJOR PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND BOB AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS . THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 250N
OVER NORTHEAST INDIA.

MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, ECMWF NEPS AND
NCUM ARE DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION AROUND 10TH OCTOBER, 2020. MODELS
ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AS A DEPRESSION DURING THE MORNING OF 12TH OCTOBER 2020. THE GENESIS
POTENTIAL PARAMETER (GPP) INDEX IS INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS ON 9TH OVER ANDAMAN SEA WITH WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST TILL 12TH OCTOBER.

MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AROUND 14TH OCTOBER WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION SUBSEQUENTLY.=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTIN20 DEMS 100738
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 10.10.2020



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
10.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 10.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:



1. YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) LAY AS A WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTCENTRAL BOB & ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA IN
THE EARLY MORNING (0000 UTC) OF TODAY, THE 10TH OCTOBER, 2020. AT
0300 UTC, IT LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BOB.



IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL BOB
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AS A DEPRESSION DURING 12TH
OCTOBER MORNING.



AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 10TH OCTOBER, THE
SYSTEM LAY WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF 14.5N/89.0E WITH INTENSITY T
1.0. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BOB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SYSTEM. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -90OC.



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA AND
MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH & NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL.



2. A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD AROUND 14TH OCTOBER.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

HIGH HIGH HIGH NIL NIL



ARABIAN SEA:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH MAHARASHTRA &
KARNATAKA COASTS AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


REMARKS:



THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 4
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR
NEXT THREE DAYS AND WILL MOVE TO PHASE 5 THEREAFTER WITH AMPLITUDE
REMAINING MORE THAN 1. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 5 DAYS.
CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
IS 29- 30 DEG C OVER ENTIRE BOB AND OVER ANDAMAN SEA. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH &
CENTRAL BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA. IT IS DECREASING BECOMING ABOUT
40-50 KJ/CM2 ALONG THE ANDHRA PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS.



CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE VORTICITY HAS
INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND 100X10-6SEC-1 NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 30X10-5SEC-1 NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 20X10-5SEC-1 TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS HIGH
(20-30 KTS) OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH-ODISHA COASTS . THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR
25 DEG N OVER NORTHEAST INDIA. EASTERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING IN THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE LINE.



SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION ON 10TH OCTOBER,
2020. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS AND CROSS NORTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AS A DEPRESSION DURING THE MORNING OF 12TH
OCTOBER 2020. THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER (GPP) INDEX IS
INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ON 10TH OVER EASTCENTRAL
BOB WITH WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
TILL 12TH OCTOBER.



MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A FRESH LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AROUND 14TH OCTOBER WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION
SUBSEQUENTLY.=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTIN20 DEMS 150655
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15.10.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
15.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15.10.2020 .

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL &
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF BAY OF
BENGAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER CENTRAL BOB AROUND
19TH OCTOBER.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHEAST ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH GUJARAT-MAHARASHTRA COASTS & GULF OF CAMBAY.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WAEK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING
NEXT 120 HRS :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL LOW HIGH HIGH HIGH

REMARKS:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN PHASE 5 FOR NEXT 6
DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 5
DAYS. CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) IS 29- 30\U02DAC OVER ENTIRE BOB AND OVER ANDAMAN SEA. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF
SOUTH & CENTRAL BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA. IT IS DECREASING BECOMING
ABOUT 40-50 KJ/CM2 OVER THE ARABIAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 55OE.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, POSITIVE VORTICITY OF THE
ORDER OF 50-70X10-6SEC-1 PREVAILS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTH MAHARASHTRA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF
SOUTH MAHARASHTRA COAST, 30-50X10-6SEC-1 OVER WESTCENTRALARABIANSEA
AND ALSO OVER WEST CENTRAL BOB WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA
LEVEL. FEEBLE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ABOUT 05X10-5SEC-1 PREVAILS
OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL BOB AND ALOS OVER SOUT AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL AS. AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF
ABOUT 10-20X10-5SEC-1 PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL BOB TO ANDAMANSEA AND
ALSO OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ALONG
& OFF MAHARASHTRA-GUJARAT COASTS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS HIGH (30-40 KTS) OVER SOUTH & CENTRAL BOB AND ALSO OVER THE
ENTIRE AS . THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 230N ACROSS
INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION ON 17TH
OCTOBER, 2020 OVER EASTCETRAL & ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF
NORTH MAHARASHTRA-SOUTH GUJRAT COASTS. THE GENESIS POTENTIAL
PARAMETER (GPP) INDEX IS INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS
ON 17TH OVER EASTCENTRAL BOB AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA WITH WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS CENTRAL BOB TILL 20TH OCTOBER.

IT MAY BE INFERRED THAT THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD
EMERGE INTO ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AAND ADJOINING
NORTHEAST ARBAN SEA OFF NORTH MAHARASHRA \U2013 SOUTH GUJARAT
COASTS DURING NEXT 48 HOURS .=
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WTIN20 DEMS 190715
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 19.10.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
19.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 19.10.2020.

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY
OF BENGAL AND ALSO OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING CENTRAL
ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
REST OF ANDAMAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTCENTRAL BOB
AROUND 20TH OCTOBER.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:

THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL & NORTH
ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER WESTWARDS AND WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED
LOW PRESSURE AREA AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH OCTOBER 2020 OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA & NEIGHBOURHOOD. IT PERSISTED OVER THE SAME
REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING
NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-31OC OVER MOST PARTS OF BOB.
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 70-90 KJ/CM2 OVER ENTIRE
BOB, EXCEPT SOME PARTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH- TAMILNADU-PUDUCHERRY COASTS. A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTCENTRAL BOB AROUND
20TH OCTOBER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND MOVEMENT
TOWARDS NORTH BOB.=
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WTIN20 DEMS 020618
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 02.11.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 02.11.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 02.11.2020 .

BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BECAME LESS MARKED TODAY MORNING (0300 UTC).

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS24-48 HOURS48-72 HOURS72-96 HOURS96-120 HOURS

NILNILNILNILNIL



ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120 HRS :

24 HOURS24-48 HOURS48-72 HOURS72-96 HOURS96-120 HOURS

NILNILNILNILNIL



REMARKS: NIL=
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WTIN20 DEMS 160600
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 16.04.2021



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
16.04.2021 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 16.04.2021.



BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH & EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,
NORTH ANDAMAN SEA GULF OF MARTABAN ARAKAN COAST. SCATTERED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER
NORTH BAY OF BENGAL.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
120 HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA ADJOINING
NORTH MALDIVES AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN
& NEIGHBOURHOOD.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
120 HRS :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


REMARKS: NIL
=
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