AXPZ20 KNHC 292202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2112 UTC Sat Aug 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 21.0N 114.5W at 29/2100
UTC moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 19N to
21N between 114W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 15N to 22N between 114W and 119W. A turn toward
the north is expected during the next several hours with this
motion expected to continue through Sunday. This should be
followed by a turn to the northwest. Satellite imagery indicates
that Iselle is becoming less organized, and it is expected to
weaken to a depression late tonight or on Sunday. The depression
should then degenerate into a remnant low later Sunday or Sunday
night.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends N of 08N with axis near 99W, moving
westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 11N to 18N between 97W and 105W.

A tropical wave extends N of 04N with axis near 85W, moving west
at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 04N E of
92W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough emerges off of Central America near 10N86W to
17N102W, then resumes west of T.S. Iselle near 15N120W to
12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm N and 210 nm S of the boundary.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Iselle near 21.0N 114.5W 1002 mb at 2 PM PDT
moving NNE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Iselle will move to 22.1N 114.5W Sun morning, weaken to a
tropical depression near 23.4N 114.8W Sun afternoon, become a
remnant low and move to 24.2N 115.3W Mon morning, 24.8N 115.6W
Mon afternoon, 25.4N 116.0W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue
afternoon. Please see the Special Features section for further
details on Tropical Storm Iselle.

An elongated area of low pressure over the SW CONUS extending to
the northern Gulf of California will slightly deepen and continue
to support fresh to strong SE winds in that region through
tonight. Expected seas are near 7 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle
variable winds will dominate the remainder offshore waters
through the middle of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the waters N of the
monsoon trough, except for moderate wind pulses off the Gulf of
Papagayo at night. South of the monsoon trough, moderate south-
southwest flow will be dominant through the middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will dominate across the
forecast waters N of 10N W of 130W around a nearly stationary
surface ridge through Mon. Winds then will gradually diminish
through the middle of the week as Iselle dissipates and the
pressure gradient across the area diminishes. Otherwise,
northerly swell will support seas to 9 ft across the northern
waters Mon evening through Wed.

$$
Ramos

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AXPZ20 KNHC 302202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2141 UTC Sun Aug 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends N of 05N with axis near 91W, moving
westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are from 06N to 14N between 87W and 97W.

A tropical wave extends N of 06N with axis near 105W, moving
west at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 07N to 13N between 103W and 114W, and N of
15N between 100W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 11N110W,
then resumes near 18N118W and continues along 13N130W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N and 210 nm S of
the boundary.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle is centered near 23.7N 113.3W at
30/2100 UTC moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to
35 kt. There is no deep convection associated with the cyclone. Iselle
should gradually lose strength during the next day or so before
decaying into a surface trough on Tuesday.

An elongated area of low pressure over the SW CONUS extending to
the northern Gulf of California will continue to support
moderate to locally fresh SE winds in that region through this
evening. Expected seas are near 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
variable winds will dominate the remainder offshore waters
through Thu. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Fri, continuing to Sat with
fresh to locally strong winds at night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the waters N of the
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate south-
southwest flow will be dominant through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will dominate across the
forecast waters N of the monsoon trough W of 120W around a
nearly stationary surface ridge that will prevail through the
middle of the week. Winds around the ridge will gradually
diminish Mon through Tue as Iselle dissipates and the pressure
gradient across the area weakens. Elsewhere, northerly swell will
support seas to 8 ft across the northern waters Mon through Wed.
Otherwise, a tropical wave will move SW of the Baja California
offshore waters by Wed and will support moderate NE winds between
the monsoon and 20N through Fri.

$$
Ramos

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AXPZ20 KNHC 021517
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1515 UTC Wed Sep 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 108W south of 18N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
14N within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is along 122W south of 19N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N
within 120 nm west of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 08N90W to 12N103W to
09N119W, then continues from 15N119W to 13N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted N of 03N E of 80W, within 90 nm of
the monsoon trough between 110W and 117W, and within 120 nm of
the monsoon trough between 123W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the region this morning.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted over the
northern Gulf of California, near a surface trough that extends
along the Gulf of California. Gentle to occasionally moderate
winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters. Light
to gentle winds are offshore of southern Mexico, where a couple
of overnight altimeter passes indicate seas are 4-6 ft.

Little change in marine conditions is expected during the next
few days. Weak high pressure will build well offshore of Baja
California, supporting gentle to moderate winds west of Baja
California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may pulse across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough that extends along 08N-09N across Costa Rica and
the adjacent offshore waters. North of the trough, winds remain
light to gentle near the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and
Nicaragua. Long-period, southerly swell is supporting 6-8 ft seas
near the Galapagos Islands eastward towards Ecuador. Elsewhere,
seas remain 4-7 ft within the monsoonal flow. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing near the Gulf of Panama region and
offshore of Colombia.

Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoonal flow will persist south
of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Southerly,
cross-equatorial swell will increase wave heights east of 90W
through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak pressure gradient persists north of the monsoon trough,
resulting in mainly light to gentle winds north of 20N. The
northerly swell has subsided across the far NW waters, and wave
heights have fallen below 8 ft based on recent altimeter data.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow continues
south of the monsoon trough, generally E of 125W. Seas are 5-7 ft
within the monsoonal flow, with isolated peaks to 8 ft. Farther
south, long-period southerly swell is supporting 7-8 ft seas
south of the equator. This swell will continue propagating
northward over the next several days. Looking ahead, a larger set
of southerly swell will build seas over the southern waters W of
100W this weekend.

$$
B Reinhart


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AXPZ20 KNHC 041441
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1356 UTC Fri Sep 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 83W north of 01N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 60 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is near 115W from 01N to 17N, moving west
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N
within 60 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is near 137W from 01N to 18N, moving west
at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 14N94W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted E of 80W,
and from 07N to 11N between 80W and 88W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted north of 09N between 92W and 98W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between
100W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N to 11N between 120W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Remnant low pressure of TD Nana, located near 14.5N94.5W, is
passing south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with strong winds in
the region. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of
08N between 92W and 98W in association to this feature. The low
will move west- northwestward, south of Mexico, through Sun.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the waters
north of 20N with 5 to 6 ft seas west of the Baja California
peninsula. Little change in marine conditions is expected during
the next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas
are 7 to 9 ft in long-period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh
SW winds and Southerly cross-equatorial swell will persist south
of the monsoon trough the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon
trough, with areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly
swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, with 8-
9 ft seas S of the equator. This swell will continue propagating
northward during the next few days.

$$
AL


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AXPZ20 KNHC 060916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
717 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 17.6N 106.0W at 06/0900
UTC moving WNW at 16 kt, and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so with some decrease in forward
speed. A turn to the west is forecast to occur in a couple of
days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Most of the
deep convection associated with Julio is on the west side of the
cyclone due to easterly wind shear. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm W and 30 nm E semicircles of
center. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight.
Weakening should begin by Monday and Julio is forecast to
dissipate within 72 hours. The forecast track keeps Julio away
from the coast of Mexico, but the cyclone will remain over the
offshore forecast waters until dissipation occurs by Wed morning.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 92W north of 01N, moving west at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N
between 93W and 97W. The wave could be enhancing convection
over southern Mexico.

A tropical wave axis is near 127W from 01N to 19N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the
wave meets the monsoon trough from 08N to 10N between 123W and
127W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 11N92W to 13N100W,
then resumes W of T.S. Julio at 13N107W to 10N120W to 10N135W.
The ITCZ continues from 10N135W to 10N140W. A cluster of moderate
to strong convection is noted from 03N to 05N E of 79W to the
coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
05N to 07N E of 78W to the coast of Colombia, from 08N to 10N
between 112W and 127W, and from 11N to 15N W of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features above for information on T.S. Julio.

Elsewhere, high pressure building across the eastern slopes of
the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico will tighten the pressure
gradient between the ridge and the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough. This will support fresh to strong northerly gap winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday with seas building to
8 ft.

As it is normal for this time of the year, mainly SE to S winds
will prevail across the Gulf of California. A very tight pressure
gradient across the Great Basin of the United States will bring
fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf
of California Mon through Tue night. On Wed, winds are forecast
to veer to the NW likely increasing to 25-30 kt as a strong high
pressure center settles over the Great Basin area. Seas are
expected to build to 6-8 ft.

Mainly light to gentle winds W to NW and seas in the 4-6 ft range
are expect across the offshore waters of Baja California N of
Cabo San Lazaro through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft in long-period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh
SW winds and southerly cross-equatorial swell will persist south
of the monsoon trough the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas
of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading
northward across the region E of 120W, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft
range. This swell event will gradually subside early this week.

$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 062044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1914 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 19.3N 110.0W at 06/2100
UTC moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
within 60 nm SW and 30 nm se semicircles. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 15N to 21N
between 106W and 116W. The current forecast is for Julio to
intensify slightly tonight, then start a weakening trend Tuesday
before dissipating Wednesday. The forecast track keeps Julio
away from the coast of Mexico, but the cyclone will remain over
the offshore forecast waters until dissipation occurs Wed
morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 91W/92W north of 01N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 08N to 10N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is near 127W from 01N to 19N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 10N between 125W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N102W, then resumes
W of T.S. Julio at 15N111W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted N of 02N E of 81W, from 08N
to 16N between 88W and 105W, and from 08N to 11N between 110W and
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features above for information on T.S. Julio.

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico and the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong
northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday
with seas building to 8 ft.

As it is normal for this time of the year, mainly SE to S winds
will prevail across the Gulf of California. A very tight pressure
gradient across the Great Basin of the United States will bring
fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf
of California Mon through Tue night. On Wed, winds are forecast
to veer to the NW likely increasing to 25-30 kt as a strong high
pressure center settles over the Great Basin area. Seas are
expected to build to 6-8 ft.

Mainly light to gentle winds W to NW and seas in the 4-6 ft range
will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California N of
Cabo San Lazaro through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft in long-period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh
SW winds and southerly cross-equatorial swell will persist south
of the monsoon trough the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas
of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading
northward across the region E of 120W, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft
range. This swell event will gradually subside early this week.

$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 072143
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2017 UTC Mon Sep 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends N of 03N into southern Mexico with axis
near 98W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N to 15N between 92W and 104W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 18N with axis near 136W,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N to 11N W of 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N100W to 18N107W to
14N120W to 10N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N to 13N E of 93W, from 12N to 17N between 103W and 111W,
and from 07N to 12N between 120W and 130W. A 1008 mb low,
remnants of Julio are near 19N115W. Farther south another 1008
mb low is near 18N113W. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N to 21N between 111W and 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low, remnant of Julio is centered near 19N115W. An
earlier scatterometer pass showed light to moderate cyclonic
winds near the low center. Continued weakening is forecast and
the remnants of Julio are expected to be absorbed by another 1008
mb low near 18N113W this evening. Otherwise, mainly light to
gentle variable winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail
across the remainder offshore waters of Baja California through
Fri.

A surface trough along the western Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of
Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night with seas to 7 ft.
Light to gentle variable winds will dominate this region
thereafter through Fri evening as return flow establishes N of
the area.

A center of low pressure between southern California and Arizona
will deepen tonight and will support the continuation of fresh
to locally strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf of
California through Tue. On Tue night, a ridge building over the
Great Basin will then support NW fresh to near gale force winds
over the northern half of the Gulf of California. This winds will
gradually diminish through Wed night. Seas are forecast to build
to 8 ft during this period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon
trough through the forecast period while light and variable
winds are expected N of it. Seas will be in the 6 to 8 ft range
in long-period southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh southwesterly flow will prevail south of the
monsoon trough between 110W and 130W through Wed night being
enhanced by a broad area of low pressure that will linger near
the southern Baja California Sur offshore waters. Winds will
decrease to gentle to moderate thereafter through Fri. Seas in
this region will fluctuate between 7 to 8 ft.

Otherwise, weak surface ridging will dominate the waters N of
20N W of 120W along with light to moderate NE to E winds.

$$
Ramos
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AXPZ20 KNHC 081614
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1600 UTC Tue Sep 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1430 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering Central America along 84-85W N of
03N moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring mainly behind the wave, near the monsoon
trough, from 04N to 09N between 78W and 82W.

A tropical wave is along 103W N of 03N into central Mexico,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 97W and 102W. A
cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is inland near
the northern end of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 140W from 03N to 18N, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N W of
136W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W TO 09N82W TO 14N97W TO
11N101W, then resumes from 1008 mb low pressure near 18.5N114W
to 12N137W. The ITCZ continues from 12N137W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N
to 16N between 94W and 97W. Similar convection is from 12N to
14N between 118W and 126W, and within 60 nm of 18N117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Former T.S. Julio has been absorbed by a large surface low
located to the south of the cyclone. Currently, the surface low
of 1008 mb is analyzed near 18.4N114W. Overnight satellite-
derived wind data show a very well defined cyclonic circulation
near and to the E of Clarion Island. Gentle to moderate winds are
associated with this system. In addition, this low has been
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 16N to 19N
between 115W and 118.5W during the past few hours. Environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for some development during
the next few days while the low moves slowly westward. This
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5
days.

A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental
in Mexico was supporting a weak northerly gap wind event across
the Tehuantepec region. The ridge has weakened and now mainly
moderate northerly winds are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
The forecast calls for light and variable winds in this area
over the next several days.

As is normal for this time of the year, mainly SE to S winds
prevail across the Gulf of California. A trough extend across the
far northern part of the Gulf from a 994 mb low pressure center
along the border of southern California and Arizona, and
supports fresh to strong S-SE winds N of 28N based on overnight
scatterometer data. These winds will persist through Tue, then
veer to the NW Tue night and Wed as a strong high pressure
settles over the Great Basin area. These northerly winds will
build 20-25 kt with seas expected to briefly build to 6-8 ft N of
29N on Wed.

Mainly light to gentle W to NW winds and seas in the 4-6 ft
range will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja
California through mid-week as a broad cyclonic circulation
dominates the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon
trough through the forecast period while light and variable
winds are expected N of it. Seas, over the offshore forecast
waters, will be in the 5 to 7 ft range in long-period southerly
swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas
of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading
northward across the region E of 120W, reaching the offshore
forecast waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador
with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will slightly subside
toward the end of the work-week.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 04N to 18N. It is
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 30 nm of a northwest to southeast line that extends
from 13N101W to 14N104W to 16N105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near
11N74W to across southern Nicaragua, then continues northwestward
to 13N90W and to 14N100W to 18N105W to low pressure near 19N114W
1007 mb and southwestward to 14N120W to 13N130W and to west of
the area at 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 118W-123W
and within 60 nm south of the trough between 123W-125W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between
129W-136W, and also within 30 nm south of the trough between
89W-90W and between 92W-95W. Similar activity is within 30 nm
north of the trough between 116W-117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery shows a large area of disturbed weather that
extends from near the coast of southern Mexico to well offshore
that coast. The area consists of the tropical wave that is along
103W as described above. In addition, clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 13N to 16N
between 93W-97W. This area has potential for some gradual
development through early next week while it moves slowly west-
northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.

Otherwise, a cold front has dipped down to over the northern
Gulf of California. It extends from a 1002 mb low over
southeastern Arizona. The cold front extends northwestward to
just inland the coast of northern Baja California. Fresh to
strong northwest to north winds are behind the front north of
30N. These winds will build seas briefly to just below 8 ft this
morning as high pressure settles in over the Great Basin area.
Winds diminish and seas subside this afternoon as the high
pressure begins to shift eastward and weaken.

Mainly light to gentle west to northwest winds will continue
through the end of the week across the offshore waters west of
Baja California. Seas of 4-6 ft there will subside slightly on
Thu and change little through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon
trough axis through the weekend, while light and variable winds
are expected north of it. The trough is expected to meander west
of Nicaragua for the next few days. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft
range in long-period southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1007 mb is centered near 19N114W. This low is
along the monsoon trough as described above. First few visible
satellite images show a small cyclonic circulation with this low.
The imagery also shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection within 90 nm of the low in the SW quadrant.
Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development of this system during the next several
days while it moves slowly westward. This system has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.

Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, west
of 120W. Gentle to moderate trade winds continue north of the
monsoon trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists
south of the trough, with isolated areas of 7-8 ft seas. Long-
period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E
of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Mexico,
Central America, Colombia and Ecuador with seas in the 5-7 ft
range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri.

$$
Aguirre
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AXPZ20 KNHC 101603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1551 UTC Thu Sep 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 80W (repositioned from 84W), north
of 03N into Central America, moving westward around 10 kt. No
significant convection is noted in association with this wave.

A tropical wave axis is along 107W, from 03N to 18N, moving west
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 09N to 17N between 103W and 110W. Gradual development
of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves west-
northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to
to low pressure near 12N101W, to another low pressure near
19N114W, to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted north of 08N between 93W and 97W and from 18N
to 20N between 113W to 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See discussion of tropical wave near 107W.

A stationary front extending across the northern Gulf of
California will weaken later today. A weak trough will linger
west of Baja California today. Generally tranquil conditions are
expected for the next several days. However, if the tropical wave
near 107W does develop forecast winds and waves will need to be
substantially increased along the Mexican offshore zones.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Tranquil conditions should prevail for the next several days
with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough along 10N,
and gentle to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough.
No significant long-period swell is expected to impact these
waters during the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure is centered near 19N114W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 20N between 113W
to 117W. Satellite imagery indicates a small elongated cyclonic
circulation with this low. Environmental conditions are expected to
be only marginally conducive for additional development of this
system during the next several days while it moves slowly
westward.

High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W.
Gentle to moderate trade winds continue north of the monsoon
trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of
the trough, with isolated areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period
southerly swell is present east of 120W, reaching the offshore
forecast waters of Central America with seas in the 5 to 6 ft
range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri.

$$
Landsea
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AXPZ20 KNHC 122037
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 mb low pressure is centered along the monsoon trough near
16N112W. A broad cyclonic circulation is evident around the low
in recent scatterometer data, with strong winds in the southern
semicircle and moderate to fresh winds over the Revillagigedo
Islands in the northern semicircle. Seas are 8-10 ft within the
enhanced monsoonal flow south of the monsoon trough. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is noted west of the low,
from 13N to 18N between 112W and 116W. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. This system
has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next
48 hours. For more information, see the latest eastern North
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at https://hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 90W across Guatemala and El
Salvador into the eastern Pacific, moving westward at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N within 120
nm of the wave axis, as well as inland over portions of southern
Mexico and Central America.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 09N82W to 11N95W
to 1006 mb low pressure near 16N112W to 1007 mb low pressure
near 18N120W to 13N125W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough E
of 88W, and within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 101W and
105W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
the potential for tropical cyclone development associated with
low pressure near 16N112W. The low is expected to develop into a
tropical depression during the next day or so. Regardless of
development, it will increase winds and seas across the outer
offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas,
including near the Revillagigedo Islands. Southerly swell from
this system will spread across the Baja California offshore
waters through early next week.

Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate northerly winds
over the Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, with
gentle to moderate NW winds in the central Gulf of California.
Earlier convection noted near the entrance to the Gulf of
California has greatly diminished. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds prevail along the coast of southern Mexico, where a recent
altimeter pass indicates seas are 4-6 ft.

Modest pulses of moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds
are expected tonight and Sun night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon
trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along
10N-11N. Elsewhere, winds remain gentle north of the trough near
the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, except for
higher gusts in monsoon trough convection. Combined seas remain
4-7 ft in wind waves and background S to SW swell.

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters
generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may
slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Wed as
S to SW swell moves across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details
on the potential for tropical cyclone development associated with
low pressure near 16N112W. Regardless of development, this system
will produce increased winds and seas for the next several days
as it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere, 1007 mb low pressure near 18N120W is producing
scattered moderate convection within 240 nm NW quadrant.
Additional development of this system is becoming less likely
over the next day or so before it interacts with, and is
possibly absorbed by, a larger weather disturbance described in
the Special Features section. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

A weak high pressure ridge extends across the NW portion from
near 30N131W to 26N140W. South of the ridge, mainly moderate NE
trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough,
with smaller pockets of fresh winds noted in scatterometer data
between 120W and 130W. Combined seas are generally 5-7 ft based
on recent altimeter data, possibly peaking around 8 ft within the
fresh flow. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal
flow is shown south of the trough between 110W and 125W, with
seas generally 6-9 ft in this region.

Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E
of 120W, with 7-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. Looking
ahead, a new set of southerly swell may move across the southern
waters during the early to middle parts of next week.

$$
B Reinhart
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AXPZ20 KNHC 131003
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

newly upgraded Tropical Storm Karina is located near 17.4N
113.8W 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts to 45 kt
moving NW at 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is seen within 330 nm NW and 300 nm SW
quadrants, and continues to spread to within 30 nm of the center
of the T.S. across the southern semicircle. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual intensification as it
moves W-NW to NW. Further modest strengthening is expected
through late Tue before cooler sea surface temperatures will lead
to gradual weakening. Tropical storm force winds and seas to
around 12 ft will spread across the outer offshore waters of
southwest Mexico and just west of the Revillagigedo Islands early
during the next several hours, then shift directly across
Clarion Island and the surrounding waters midday through Sun
evening. For more information, see the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 91W across Guatemala into the
eastern Pacific, moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection
is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 13N92W to 18N105W,
then resumes from low pres 1007 mb near 16N119W to 12N128W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from north of 06.5N to the coastlines between 80W and 99W, and
from 08N to 12.5N between 102W and 108W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 121W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Karina. SE winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas 8 to 11
ft will shift NW across the outer offshore waters west of Cabo
Corrientes and across western portions of the Revillagigedo
Islands during the next several hours and then shift NW and out
of the offshore waters late this afternoon. Southerly swell from
Karina will spread northward across the Baja California offshore
waters later today through early next week.

Overnight scatterometer data show gentle to moderate west to
northwesterly winds over the Baja California waters. Earlier
convection noted near the entrance to the Gulf of California has
ended. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along the coast
of southern Mexico, where altimeter data indicates seas are 4-6
ft.

Modest pulses of moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds
are expected overnight and Sun night over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon
trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along
10N-11N. Elsewhere, winds remain gentle north of the trough near
the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, except for
higher gusts in monsoon trough convection across the waters of
Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador. Combined seas remain 4-7
ft in wind waves and background S to SW swell.

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters
generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may
slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Wed as
S to SW swell moves across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Increasing winds and seas will be seen southeast of Clarion
Island this morning and spread northwestward over the next
several days as Tropical Storm Karina moves west-northwestward
away from the coast of Mexico and strengthens to a strong Tropical
Storm.

Elsewhere, 1007 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near
17N119W and is depicted in satellite imagery as a small cyclonic
swirl. This low will likely become absorbed in the southwestern
portion of Tropical Storm Karina during the next few days.

A weak and narrow high pressure ridge extends across the NW
portion from 1020 mb high pressure near 30N130W to 26N140W.
South of the ridge, mainly moderate NE trades prevail across the
waters north of the monsoon trough, with smaller pockets of fresh
winds noted in scatterometer data between 120W and 130W and north
of 18N. Combined seas are generally 5-7 ft based on recent
altimeter data, peaking at 8-9 ft within the fresh flow. A broad
area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow is shown south of
the trough between 110W and 125W, with seas generally 6-9 ft in
this region.

Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E
of 120W, with 7-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. Looking
ahead, new southerly swell may move across the southern waters
during the early to middle parts of next week.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 132042
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 17.8N 116.0W at 13/2100
UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within
60 nm SW semicircle of Karina. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 19N between
113W and 127W. Further modest strengthening is expected through
Tue before cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more stable
environment, will lead to weakening. For more information, see
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 93W N of 02N, moving westward at 10
kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 16N103W, then resumes
from near 16N120W to 16N126W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N E of 84W,
and from 05N to 15N between 90W and 106W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Karina. Southerly swell from Karina will spread
northward across the Baja California offshore waters through
early this week.

Gentle to moderate west to northwesterly winds prevail over the
Baja California waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail
along the coast of southern Mexico, where altimeter data
indicates seas are 4-6 ft.

A pulse of moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds are
expected tonight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon
trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along
10N-11N. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon
trough. Combined seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind
waves and S to SW swell.

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters
generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may
slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Wed as
S to SW swell moves across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Increasing winds and seas southeast of Clarion Island will
spread northwestward over the next several days as Tropical Storm
Karina moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N135W. South of the
ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across
the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
generally 5-7 ft based on recent altimeter data, peaking at 8-9
ft within the fresh flow. A broad area of fresh to locally strong
monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 110W
and 125W, with seas generally 6-9 ft in this region.

Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E
of 120W, with 7-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New
southerly swell may move across the southern waters during the
early to middle part of next week.

$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 141534
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 18.1N 118.5W at 14/1500
UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm
in the SW semicircle of Karina. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm in the SW
semicircle of Karina, and within 270 nm SE of a line from 14N122W
to 10N129W. Karina is moving toward the NW and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Some
slight strengthening is forecast through tonight, with gradual
weakening expected to begin on Tue.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 96W N of 04N, moving W at around 10
kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N96W
to 13N106W, then resumes W of Karina near 17N125W to low pressure
near 14.5N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 86W and 90W, from 10N
to 14N between 88W and 96W, and within 60-120 nm S-SW of Mexico
between 96W and 107W. Similar convection is noted S of Panama and
W of Colombia N of 04N and E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 07N between 100W and 106W, from 08N to 12N
between 105W and 110W, and also from 08N to 10N between 132W and
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will
continue to spread northward across the Mexican waters from
Manzanillo to the Baja California offshore waters through Tue.

Moderate northwesterly winds prevail over the Baja California
waters north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds prevail along the coast of southern
Mexico, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where a brief pulse of
moderate northerly winds is occurring this morning. Seas are 3 ft
or less in the Gulf of California, and 4-7 ft elsewhere S of
Punta Eugenia.

Moderate northerly winds will prevail offshore of Baja California
in the wake of Karina, with light to gentle winds elsewhere
through the week, except occasionally moderate SE winds in the
central and northern Gulf of California. Seas will be mainly 4-7
ft in mixed swell across the waters in the wake of Karina, except
3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, occasionally 2-4 ft in
the central and northern Gulf.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon
trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along
10N-11N. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon
trough. Combined seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind
waves and S to SW swell.

Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters
generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may
slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Thu
night as S to SW swell moves across the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Karina. Tropical storm conditions and seas of
10-14 ft will shift northwestward over the next few days as
Karina moves farther away from the coast of Mexico.

A weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 28N132W. South of
the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail
across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
generally 5-7 ft. Strong NE winds are found within 150-210 nm to
the NW of low pressure near 14.5N133W, where seas area locally
8-10 ft. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow
prevails south of the monsoon trough between 115W and 135W, with
seas generally 7-9 ft in this region.

Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E
of 120W, with 6-7 ft combined seas south of the equator. New
southerly swell will move across the southern waters this
afternoon to raise seas to around 8 ft along the equator through
the middle part of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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AXPZ20 KNHC 181602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 118W from 05N to 16N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. It shows up well in the lower half of the
atmosphere, southwest of a upper level ridge. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A segement of the monsoon trough extends from 11N87W to 19N105W
to 13N104W. Another segment extends from 20N110W to 10N120W to
14N125W to a 1009 m low near 13N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 100W
and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging is observed between Baja California and
about 125W, building east of the remnant low pressure over Karina
which is slowing dissipating well west of the area. This ridge
will build slightly through Sat as a trough north of the area
moves into southern California. This pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Norte along with
combined seas to 7 ft. Winds and seas will diminish by Sun into
early next week as the ridge weakens.

The monsoon trough extends northward to near Cabo Corrientes.
Pressure is starting to lower, and low pressure may be starting
to form southwest of Cabo Corrientes along the monsoon trough.
This may support fresh winds off the coast of Jalisco by Sun.
Farther south, fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region by Sat night. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas.

Weak high pressure well west of Baja California Norte is
supporting moderate northerly winds and 5 ft seas across the
offshore waters. This synoptic pattern will continue through Sun.
Northerly 6-7 ft swell will build southward toward Baja
California Norte this weekend. A weak surface trough will develop
well to the west of Baja California Sur this weekend, which will
maintain light to gentle winds and slight seas through early
next week.

Farther south, strong gap winds and building seas are possible
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Sun, related to developing
Tropical Depression Twenty Two in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon
trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon
trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5 to 6 ft range in a
mix of wind waves and southerly swell, with a maximum of 6-7 ft
near Panama. The swell is starting to subside, and sea heights
are expected to diminish today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Karina is located near 23N127W with a central
pressure of 1010 mb. The most recent scatterometer data showed
fresh winds north-northeast the low. Maximum seas are about 8 ft
within 60 nm of the low. The low will continue to move westward
and gradually weaken to a surface trough later today or tonight,
and seas will subside below 8 ft tonight.

An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas near 8 ft
just north of a 1009 mb low pressure area along the monsoon
trough near 13N140W. Winds are likely near 20 kt within 120 nm
north of the low. Winds and seas associated with the low will
shift west of the area later today. A small cluster of scattered
showers and thunderstorms is noted near the low pressure.

Farther east, seas are 7 to 8 ft in an area along the monsoon
trough from 06N to 10N between 105W and 115W, a combination of
moderate to fresh SW winds along with longer period SW swell.
Winds and seas will diminish later today in this area.

$$
Christensen
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AXPZ20 KNHC 190905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 122W from 03N to 19N, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. It shows up well in the lower half of the
atmosphere, southwest of a upper level ridge. No significant
convection is observed near the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N105W to 13N118W to
14N132W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 17N between 94W and 106W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging is observed between Baja California and
125W. This ridge is expected to build slightly today as a trough
north of the area moves into southern California. This pattern
will support moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Norte
along with combined seas to 7 ft. Winds and seas will diminish
by Sun into early next week as the ridge weakens.

Broad low pressure is likely to form south of Cabo Corrientes
near the northernmost extent of the monsoon trough. This may
support fresh winds off the Jalisco coast by Sun. Farther south,
fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region, starting tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern
across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon
trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon
trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5 to 6 ft range in a
mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Karina has weakened to a surface trough.
Moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mainly NE swell
persist between the trough and the subtropical ridge which is
displaced well to the northwest. Gentle to moderate trade winds
are noted farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will
gradually build eastward north of 20N through early next week,
and trade winds will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and
the monsoon trough.

Farther east, seas are 7 to 8 ft in an area along the monsoon
trough between 105W and 115W, a combination of moderate to fresh
SW winds and longer period SW swell. These seas will subside to
below 8 ft today. Reinforcing SW swell will arrive Sun, allowing
seas to build to 8 ft again in this vicinity.

$$
Mundell
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AXPZ20 KNHC 200920
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad low pressure is located a couple of hundred nm south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The surface low center is
centered along the monsoon trough near 15N107W, or approximately
300 SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Its estimated pressure is 1007
mb. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 10N to 14N between 100W-104W and from 10N
to 13N between 104W-112W. Recently developed scattered moderate
to strong is within 90 nm of the low in the SW quadrant.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the low in the
SW quadrant. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form early next week while the system moves in a general
west-northwestward track. This system has a high chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 131W from 03N to 17N. It is
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N
to 10N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N96W
to low pres near 15N107W 1007 mb to 12N116W to 11N128W to low
pres near 10N131W 1008 mb and to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 100W-104W
and from 10N to 13N between 104W-112W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 131W-
133W and within 30 nm south of the trough between 126W-128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging observed between Baja California and
125W is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California
Norte with combined seas to 7 ft. A 00436 UTC ASCAT showed
northwest to north 15-20 kt winds mainly north of 28N. Winds and
seas will diminish into early next week as the ridge weakens.

Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region, starting tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas.

A large cluster consisting of scattered moderate to strong
convection has formed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
from 14N to 16N and between 93W and 95W. This activity contains
frequent lightning and most likely strong gusty winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range
in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

Clusters of nocturnal scattered moderate to isolated strong are
developing along and just inland the majority of the Central
American coast.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough along 132W from 16N to 25N is breaking up the
subtropical ridge and supporting only gentle moderate trade winds
farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will gradually
build eastward north of 20N through early next week, and trades
will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and the monsoon
trough.

Farther east, seas are in the 7-8 ft range in an area along the
monsoon trough between 105W and 115W. These seas are within 240
nm of the new low pressure centered near 15N107W and are due to
a combination of moderate to fresh southwest winds and longer
period SW swell. Over and just of this low pressure system, seas
are lower, in the 5-7 ft range, as revealed by a recent altimeter
data pass.

$$
Aguirre
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AXPZ20 KNHC 202156
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E has developed over the east
Pacific, with center near 15.8N 109.1W at 20/2100 UTC, moving W
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N-20N between 103W-113W. The
system is expected to turn toward the west-northwest at a
slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis from 17N132 to a 1009 mb low near
11N132W to 03N133W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted within 60 nm around the low.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to low pres near 15N108W
1005 mb (aka T.D. Seventeen-E) to low pres near 10N132W 1009 mb
and to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N
and E of 92W, and from 10N to 16N between 102W-112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging observed between Baja California and
125W is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California
Norte with combined seas to 7 ft. A recent ASCAT pass depicted
northwest to north moderate to fresh winds mainly north of 28N.
Winds and seas will diminish into early next week as the ridge
weakens.

Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region through the next couple of days. Elsewhere, a
weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range
in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

Scattered moderate convection continues along and just inland
the majority of the Central American coast related to the monsoon
trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough along 134W from 20N to 24N is breaking up the
subtropical ridge and supporting gentle moderate trade winds
farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will gradually
build eastward north of 20N through mid week, and trades will
strengthen somewhat between the ridge and the monsoon trough.

Farther east, seas are in the 8-9 ft range in an area along the
monsoon trough between 105W and 115W. These seas are enhanced by
T.D Seventeen-E centered near 16N109W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail
elsewhere, as revealed by a recent altimeter data pass.

$$
ERA
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AXPZ20 KNHC 211606
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E is centered near 17.0N 112.0W at
21/1500 UTC or about 370 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja
California moving west-northwest at 12 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is from 12N to 18N between 111W-115W. A turn toward the west is
expected on Wednesday. Slow strengthening is anticipated during
the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical
storm tonight or Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 03N-17N with axis near 136W, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined
to and near the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 07N-11N between 132W
and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 08N97W to
12N103W, then resumes near 13N116W to 11N133W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the monsoon
axis E of 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient induced by weak deep layer ridging between Baja
California and 125W is supporting mainly moderate northwest
to north winds off Baja California Norte with combined seas to
6 or 7 ft. Winds and seas will diminish some through Tue, except
within about 300 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, where much high winds and seas on the periphery of
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E can be expected.

Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region through the next couple of days. Elsewhere, a
weak pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5-6 ft range
in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough along 136W from 18N to 23N continues to break
up the subtropical ridge and supporting gentle moderate trade
winds farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will
gradually build eastward north of 20N through mid week, and
trades will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and the monsoon
trough.

Farther east, seas of 8-9 ft are within an area along the
monsoon trough between 105W and 117W. These seas are a result
of the fresh to strong southwest to west winds that are occurring
in the southern part of the broad cyclonic circulation associated
to Tropical Depression Seventeen-E. In addition, persistent
long-period southwesterly is present within this area as well
further contributing to the build up of these seas.

$$
Ramos
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AXPZ20 KNHC 222219
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 19.2N 117.9W at 2100 UTC,
moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
within 300 nm of the center in the SW semicircle.

Lowell is forecast to continue moving west-northwest through
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west. Little change in strength
is expected through Wednesday. Slow strengthening is possible
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A weakening trend is
expected to begin by late Friday. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

None.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N84W to 09N98W to
13N110W, then resumes SW of Lowell near 15N120W to 11N131W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 13N between 81W to 112W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 16W between 122W to 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient induced by weak deep layer ridging between Baja
California and 130W is supporting mainly moderate north to
northeast winds off Baja California Norte with combined seas to
6 ft. Little change in winds is expected through Wed offshore of
Baja California, except for the far outer waters SW of Cabo
San Lucas where much high winds and seas on the eastern periphery
of Tropical Storm Lowell can be expected. Southerly swell from
Lowell will raise seas slightly during the next 48 hours across
the offshore waters.

Farther south, fresh winds will pulse to strong at night across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region will result
in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

Looking ahead, strong northwest swell from a cold front forecast
to stall across the NW waters will arrive across the Baja
California waters late Fri and build seas to 7-10 ft by midday
Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds continue south of
roughly 10N and the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds
prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently
in the 5-6 ft range in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Winds south of the monsoon trough will become fresh late Wed and
Thu and raise seas to 7-8 ft there.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure in
the tropics is allowing for generally moderate trades south of
24N to exist well into the deep tropics. The ridge will build
southward toward 20N and to the west of Lowell through mid-
week.

Farther east, seas of 8-9 ft are within an area along the
monsoon trough between 114W-119W. These seas are a result of the
fresh to strong southwest to west winds that are occurring in
the southern part of the broad cyclonic circulation associated to
Tropical Storm Lowell. In addition, persistent long-period
southwesterly is present within this area as well further
contributing to the build up of these seas.

Looking ahead, a cold front will stall just NW of the discussion
area late Wed. Associated NW swell will move into the far NW
waters, raising seas to 8 ft and greater Wed night into Thu.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 231618
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 20.0N 120.6W at 23/1500
UTC, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 170
nm south of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm north of the center.

Lowell is forecast to continue moving west-northwest through
today, then turn toward the west by early Thursday and continue
into the weekend. Slow strengthening is possible through Thu
night.Little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days, with slow weakening expected to begin by late
Friday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

None.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N84W to 11N93W to 11N112W. The monsoon trough continues SW of
Lowell near 14N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 77W to 115W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 124W to 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient induced by weak ridging between Baja California and
130W is supporting moderate north to northeast winds west of
Baja California Norte with combined seas to 6 ft. Little change
in winds is expected today offshore of Baja California. Large
seas on the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Lowell can be
expected today across the offshore waters.

Farther south, winds will subside across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by this afternoon. A weak pressure pattern across
the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas elsewhere.

Looking ahead, strong northwest swell from a cold front forecast
to stall across the NW waters will arrive across the Baja
California waters late Fri, and build seas to 7-11 ft on Friday
through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are noted south of
11N and the monsoon trough. Gentle winds prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Combined seas are currently 4-5 ft in a mix of
wind waves and southerly swell. Winds south of the monsoon trough
will continue to be fresh tonight and Thu with increasing seas
to 8-9 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures
in the tropics is supporting moderate trades south of 24N. The
ridge will build south and west of TS Lowell through Thu.

Looking ahead, a cold front will stall well to the NW of 30N
late tonight. Associated NW swell will move into the far NW
waters, raising seas to 8-12 ft tonight through Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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AXPZ20 KNHC 241604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 21.5N 124.9W at 24/1500
UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate within 60 nm of the center of Lowell. A
generally westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected for the next several days. Gradual weakening is
anticipated. Lowell is forecast to become a tropical depression
by early Fri and a remnant low by early Sat.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 09N94W to 10N107W, then continues S of Lowell near
15N124W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 78W and 85W, from 07N
to 16N between 86W and 99W, from 08N to 12N between 99W and 104W,
and also from 11N to 14N between 120W and 127W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 104W and
108W, from 06N to 12N between 109W and 114W, and also from 09N to
13N between 134W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging is between northern Baja California and Tropical
Storm Lowell located well W of the area now. This is maintaining
gentle to moderate northerly winds across the region with seas
to 6 ft. Northerly swell will reach the northern Baja California
peninsula late tonight, spreading SE-S Fri through Sat night,
with seas of 8 to 11 ft. This swell will decay Sun through early
next week.

Light to gentle winds are expected farther south the next
several days, except pulsing northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec at night. Southerly swell of 6 to 8 ft well S of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually decay through the end of the
week. Otherwise, seas of 4-7 ft are expected through the early
part of the weekend, building slightly to 5-8 ft in long period
NW swell thereafter.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southerly flow winds prevail S of 10N and the
monsoon, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined
seas are currently 5 to 8 ft in a mix of wind waves and
southerly swell. Winds will diminish to moderate S of the monsoon
trough by early Fri with seas subsiding slightly. Long period
southerly swell will impact the waters W of Ecuador by the end of
this weekend into early next week with seas building to 6 to 9
ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Lowell.

A front just NW of the area is stalling and will remain N of
30N140W. Associated NW swell from the front is already
propagating SE into the waters with seas of 8-12 ft. By the
weekend, seas are expected to be 8-12 ft, mixing with swell
generated by Tropical Storm Lowell. Conditions will improve early
next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W and as the
remaining northerly swell decays.

$$
Lewitsky
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AXPZ20 KNHC 250841
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 21.6N 128.0W at 25/0900
UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm E
semicircle. Lowell is forecast to continue on a westward track
while weakening. The system is forecast to become a tropical
depression today and a remnant low early Sat. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W N of 04N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Convection is described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W N of 02N, moving
westward at 10 kt.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N100W to 12N133W.
The ITCZ extends from 12N133W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted N of 03N E of 83W, and N of
05N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 15N between 90W and 110W, from 08N to 12N between
110W and 122W, and from 09N to 11N between 136W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging is between northern Baja California and Tropical
Storm Lowell, which is located well W of the area. This is
maintaining moderate NW to N winds across the region with seas to
6 ft. Northwesterly swell west of Baja California Norte will
spread southward through Sat night. This swell will decay Sun
through early next week.

Light to gentle winds are expected farther south the next
several days, except pulsing northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec at night. Otherwise, seas of 4-7 ft are expected
through the early part of the weekend, building slightly to 5-8
ft in long period NW swell thereafter.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Long period southerly swell will impact the waters W of Ecuador
by the end of this weekend into early next week with seas
building to 6 to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Lowell.

NW swell is propagating SE across the NW waters with seas of
8-12 ft. Seas in that area will remain 8-12 ft this weekend as
this swell and swell generated by Tropical Storm Lowell prevail.
Conditions will improve early next week as the remnants of
Lowell shift W of 140W and as the remaining northerly swell
decays.

$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260845
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W/94W N of 03N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Convection is described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W N of 03N, moving
westward at 10 kt.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 11N135W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted E of 80W and N of 05N between
80W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
15N between 90W and 100W, from 08N to 12N between 100W and 112W,
and from 10N to 12N between 120W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging west of Baja California will maintain moderate NW
to N winds across the region. Northwesterly swell propagating
across the waters off Baja California Norte will spread
southward to the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters
through tonight. This swell will subside Sun through early next
week. Light to gentle winds are expected farther south the next
several days. A gale force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Long period southerly to southwesterly swell will impact the
waters W of Ecuador by the end of this weekend, spreading to the
waters west of Central America by early next week with seas
building to 6 to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Lowell is centered
near 21N132W. Only moderate scattered showers are noted within
120 nm east semicircle of the low. Seas continue to peak near 14
ft in a combination of locally generated seas mixing with long
period NW swell. The remnant low will continue to shift westward,
moving west of the area Sun. Seas in the vicinity of the remnant
low will remain in the 8-12 ft this weekend. Conditions will
improve early next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W
and as the remaining northerly swell decays.

Southerly swell will propagate N of the equator this weekend,
building seas to 8-10 ft between 100W and 130W. These seas will
gradually decay early next week.

$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 262136
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W N of 03N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 10N to 16N between 90W and 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W N of 03N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to
13N between 100W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N100W to 11N120W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between
85W and 90W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to
moderate NW to N winds across the region. Northwesterly swell
propagating across the waters off Baja California Norte will
spread southward to the remainder of the Baja California offshore
waters through tonight. This swell event will begin to subside
Sun into Mon. Light to gentle winds are expected farther south
the next several days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A gale to near strong force gap wind event
is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next
week. Currently, marine guidance suggests N winds of 30 to 45 kt
and seas building up to 16 or 17 ft by Tue night.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5
storm-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per cold season.
Most gale-force events occurred during November and December,
while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based on latest
model trends and the present evolving synoptic scale setup, it
appears that the forecast gale to near strong force wind event
may replace the previously recorded earliest start date of
October 3rd.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Long period SW swell will impact the waters between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands on Sun, building seas to 8 ft. This swell
event will continue to propagate northward reaching the offshore
waters of Central America by early next week, with seas building
to 6 to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Lowell is centered
near 21N135W. The cyclonic circulation remains well defined with
mainly low clouds associated. A recent scatterometer pass
provides observations of fresh to strong winds in the northern
semicircle of the low center, particularly from 21N to 27N W of
131W. Seas continue to peak near 14 ft based on altimeter data,
in a combination of locally generated seas mixing with long
period NW swell. The remnant low will continue to shift westward,
moving west of the area late Sun. Seas in the vicinity of the
remnant low will remain in the 8 to 12 ft range on Sun. Conditions
will improve early next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W
of 140W and as the remaining northerly swell decays.

Southerly swell will begin to propagate N of the equator to
night, building seas to 8-10 ft between 100W and 120W by Sun
night into Mon. Seas will gradually subside across the waters S
of 20N and E of 120W Tue through Wed.


$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 270840
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W/97W N of 03N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection described below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W/107W N of 03N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N96W to 10N120W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
09N to 15N between 91W and 99W, and from 09N to 13N between 103W
and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N
between 120W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to
moderate NW to N winds across the region. Northwesterly swell
propagating across the waters off Baja California will begin to
subside today into Mon. Light to gentle winds are expected
farther south the next several days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong gale force gap wind event is
possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week.
Currently, marine guidance suggests N winds of 30 to 45 kt and
seas building up to 16 or 17 ft by Tue night.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5
storm-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per cold season.
Most gale-force events occurred during November and December,
while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based on latest
model trends and the present evolving synoptic scale setup, it
appears that the forecast gale to near strong force wind event
may replace the previously recorded earliest start date of
October 3rd.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Long period SW swell will impact the waters between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands today, building seas to 8 ft. This swell
event will continue to propagate northward reaching the offshore
waters of Central America by early next week, with seas building
to 6 to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Lowell is centered
near 21N137W, with winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern
semicircle of the low. Seas continue to peak near 13 ft in a
combination of locally generated seas mixing with long period NW
swell. The remnant low will continue to shift westward, moving
west of the area today. Seas in the vicinity of the remnant low
will remain in the 8 to 12 ft range today. Conditions will
improve early next week as the remnants of Lowell shift W of 140W
and as the remaining northerly swell decays.

Southerly swell has propagated N of the equator, seas will
build to 8-10 ft between 100W and 120W today into Mon. Seas will
gradually subside across the waters S of 20N and E of 120W the
middle of next week.


$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 272156
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W-98W N of 03N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 09N to 17.5N between 96W and 102W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W N of 03N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Associated convection described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 10N83W to 12N95W to
low pres near 12.5N104W 1011 mb to 10.5N130W to 12N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 12.5N between 80W and 95W, and from 07N to 1.52N between 108W
and 137W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
09.5N to 14.5N between 103W and 108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to
moderate NW to N winds across the region for the next few days.
Northwesterly swell propagating through the waters off Baja
California the past 48 hours has peaked and has begin to subside
this afternoon. However, new north swell is moving into the
northern waters this afternoon, and maintaining seas of 7-9 ft.
Light to gentle southerly winds prevail across the Gulf of
California this afternoon and will continue through Mon
afternoon before shifting to the north. Elsewhere, Light to
gentle winds are generally expected across the waters from Las
Tres Marias to Puerto Angel for the next several days.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong gale force gap wind event is
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night through Thu as
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine
guidance suggests N winds blasting across the Tehuantepec waters
late Tue afternoon and quickly increasing to 30 to 45 kt Tue
night with seas building up to 16 or 17 ft.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5
storm force-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold
season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and
December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based
on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic scale
setup, it appears that the forecast gale to near strong force
wind event may supersede the previously recorded earliest start
date of October 3rd.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Long period SW swell is moving into the waters between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands this afternoon, building seas to 8 ft.
This swell will continue to propagate northward and reach the
offshore waters of Central America tonight through Mon, where seas
will also build to 6 to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1013 mb remnant low of former tropical cyclone Lowell is
centered near 22N141.5W, and has moved west of the area. High
pressure centered due north of this low near 34N, is aiding in
maintaining a zone of strong easterly winds of 20 to 25 kt in
the northern semicircle of the low. Seas are 10-12 ft in a
combination of locally generated wind waves mixing with long
period NW swell. Conditions will improve Mon as the remnants of
Lowell shift further W of 140W and as the remaining northerly
swell decays. Elsewhere west of 120W, moderate N to NE winds
prevail with seas 7-9 ft in new NW to N swell. Southerly swell
has propagated N of the equator, where seas will build to 8-10
ft between 100W and 120W today into Mon. Seas will gradually
subside across the waters S of 20N and E of 120W by the middle
of the week.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 281604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with a small low embedded within this area has
decreased since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become more conducive for development and a
tropical depression will likely form within the next two or three
days. The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward for the
next several days and then turn west-northwestward by the weekend.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Refer
to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A strong gale force gap wind
event is expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue through
Fri night as cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Marine
guidance suggests N winds blasting across the Tehuantepec waters
Tue afternoon and quickly increasing to 30 to 45 kt by Tue night
with seas building up to 16 or 17 ft.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP@.shtml for more details.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5
storm force-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold
season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and
December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January.
Based on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic
scale setup, it appears that the forecast gale to near strong
force wind event may supersede the previously recorded earliest
start date of October 3rd.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W N of 03N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1007 mb low pres
located near 13.5N104.5W to 11N125W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N
between 92W and 101W, and from 10N to 16N between 105W and 109W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N E of
80W to the coast of Colombia, from 10n to 12n between 110W and
118W, and from 08N to 10N W of 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force
gap wind event.

Elsewhere, a weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain
gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the region for the next
few days. NW to N swell over the waters west of Baja California
will subside through late today. Light to gentle southerly winds
will prevail across the Gulf of California through this
afternoon before shifting to the north. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds are generally expected across the waters from Las
Tres Marias to Puerto Angel for the next several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Long period SW swell is moving over the waters between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands, with seas to 8 ft. This swell event
will continue to propagate northward and reach the offshore
waters of Central America today, where seas will build to 6 to 8
ft. In addition, seas generated by the gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador on Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for tropical cyclone
potential.

Cross equatorial SW swell, combined with a developing low
pressure located near 13.5N104.5W is producing a large area of 8
to 10 ft from 05N to 12N between 100W and 120W. Sea heights of 8
to 9 ft are noted elsewhere across much of the waters S of 20N
between 90W and 130W. These seas will gradually subside across
the waters S of 20N and E of 120W by the middle of the week,
except near the possible tropical cyclone.

$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 291633
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 13.3N 108.5W at
1500 UTC moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to
20N between 103W and 116W. The system is forecast to steadily
intensify as it moves on a westward to west-northwestward track
during the next several days. The current forecast has the
depression becoming a tropical storm this evening just outside of
the offshore waters near 13.8N 110.4W, then continuing WNW, and
reaching hurricane intensity Wednesday evening. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A strong gale force gap wind
event is expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late today
through Fri night as cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
The pressure gradient between high pressure building behind the
front and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough will tighten over
the area. This will increase winds funneling through the Chivela
Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will rapidly increase
to gale force by late this afternoon, reaching 30-40 kt by
tonight. At that time, seas will build to 15-18 ft. Swell
generated from this event are forecast to reach 100W on Wed.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP@.shtml for more details.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5
storm force-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold
season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and
December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January.
Based on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic
scale setup, this forecast event most likely will supersede the
previously recorded earliest start date of October 3rd.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N84W to T.D.
EIGHTEEN-E NEAR 13.3N108.5W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 78W
and 96W and within 120 nm S of trough between 127W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force
gap wind event.

Elsewhere, a weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain
gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the region for the next
few days. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail across
the northern Gulf of California through tonight while mainly
light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf most
of the forecast period. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are
generally expected across the waters from Las Tres Marias Islands
to Puerto Angel for the next several days. T.D. Eighteen-E is
expected to become a large hurricane. The size of the system will
generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft spreading from
swell out and away the cyclone center. This south swell will
spread across the offshore waters west of the Baja California
peninsula Thu into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 5 to 7 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
Long period SW swell is moving over the waters between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands, with seas to 8 ft. These seas will
subside below 8 ft tonight. Seas generated by the gap wind event
in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning on Wed morning.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for newly developed
T.D.Eighteen-E.

Outside of T.D. Eighteen-E, a weak pressure gradient prevails
with light to gentle winds prevailing N of the monsoon trough,
and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. The cross
equatorial swell across the waters S of 15N has started to
subside, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. These seas will continue
to subside trough the middle of the week. New NW swell will
propagate into the NW waters the middle of the week. Seas will
build to 9 ft over the far NW waters by Wed night. T.D.
Eighteen-E is expected to become a large hurricane. The size of
the system will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft
spreading well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas
greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of
115W.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 300844
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 14.1N 112.5W at 30/0900
UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted
within 90 nm W and 60 nm E semicircles. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 07N to 19N
between 110W and 120W. Marie is forecast to steadily intensify
as it moves on a westward to west- northwestward track during the
next several days. The current forecast has Marie reaching
hurricane intensity tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure building in the wake of a cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough has tightened over
the area. This has increased winds funneling through the Chivela
Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and has started a gale force
gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas will build
to 15-18 ft during this event. Gale force winds will continue
through early Sat. Swell generated from this event is forecast
to reach 100W today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP@.shtml for more details.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5
storm force-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold
season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and
December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January.
Based on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic
scale setup, this forecast event most likely will supersede the
previously recorded earliest start date of October 3rd.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13.5N101W, then
resumes W of T.S. Marie near 13N118W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N
between 96W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 12N between 135W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force
gap wind event.

A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to
moderate NW to N winds across much of the region for the next few
days. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are
generally expected across the waters from Las Tres Marias Islands
to Puerto Angel for the next few days as Marie moves away from
the region. Marie is expected to become a large hurricane. The
size of the system will generate a large area of seas greater
than 8 ft spreading from swell out and away the cyclone center.
This south swell will spread across the offshore waters west of
the Baja California peninsula tonight into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon trough, with
gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are
currently 6 to 8 ft in a mix of wind waves and southerly swell.
These seas will subside below 8 ft today. Seas generated by the
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will start to propagate
across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on T.S. Marie.

Outside of T.S. Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of
120W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing N of the monsoon
trough to 20N, and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon
trough. The cross equatorial swell across the waters S of 15N has
started to subside, however seas remain in the 7-8 ft range.
These seas will continue to subside trough the middle of the
week. New NW swell will propagate into the NW waters the middle
of the week. Seas will build to 9 ft over the far NW waters by
tonight. T.S. Marie is expected to become a large hurricane. The
size of the system will generate a large area of seas greater
than 8 ft spreading well away from the cyclone center. By
Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N
of 10N and W of 115W.

$$
AL
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AXPZ20 KNHC 301616
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 14.2N 113.8W at 30/1500
UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 250 nm W
semicircle. Marie is forecast to steadily intensify as it moves
on a westward to west- northwestward track during the next
several days. The current forecast has Marie reaching hurricane
intensity this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure building in the wake of a cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough has tightened over
the area. This has increased winds funneling through the Chivela
Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and has started gale force
gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas will build to
15-18 ft during this event. Gale force winds will continue
through early Sat. Swell generated from this event is forecast to
reach 100W today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP@.shtml for more details.

Of note, the 20-year climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind
events indicates that on average 16 gale-force events and 5
storm force-events occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec each cold
season. Most gale-force events occurred during November and
December, while most storm-force winds occurred in January.
Based on latest model trends and the present evolving synoptic
scale setup, this forecast event most likely will supersede the
previously recorded earliest start date of October 3rd.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N106W, then resumes W
of T.S. Marie near 13N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 82W
and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is also located from 10N
to 14N between 120W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales.

A weak ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to
moderate NW to N winds across much of the region for the next few
days. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are
generally expected across the waters from Las Tres Marias Islands
to Puerto Angel for the next few days as Marie moves away from
the region. Marie is expected to become a large hurricane. The
size of the system will generate a large area of seas greater
than 8 ft spreading from swell out and away the cyclone center.
This south swell will spread across the offshore waters west of
the Baja California peninsula through the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southerly flow prevails S of the monsoon
trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are
ranging from 5 to 7 ft. Some higher seas from gales in the
Tehuantepec region will spread into offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador over the next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on T.S. Marie.

Outside of T.S. Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of
120W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing N of the monsoon
trough to 20N, and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon
trough. The cross equatorial swell across the waters S of 15N has
started to subside, however seas remain in the 5 to 7 ft range.
These seas will continue to subside trough the middle of the
week. New NW swell will propagate into the NW waters the middle
of the week. Seas will build to 9 ft over the far NW waters by
tonight. T.S. Marie is expected to become a large hurricane. The
size of the system will generate a large area of seas greater
than 8 ft spreading well away from the cyclone center. By
Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N
of 10N and W of 115W.

$$
KONARIK
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AXPZ20 KNHC 011546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 15.2N 119.5W at 01/1500 UTC
moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere within 210 nm of the center in the northern semicircle.
Marie is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward track
through the next few days while intensifying. The current
forecast has Marie becoming a major hurricane today. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting near gale force winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will resume this
evening, then continue through early Sat and seas will peak near
15-18 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N103W to 13N110W,
then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 11N124W to 11N135W. The
ITCZ is from 11N135W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 93W and 99W,
and from 08N to 17N between 104W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale for gap wind event.

Gentle to moderate N to NW winds off the coast of Baja
California will continue through the next few days. Swell
generated from Hurricane Marie will impact the offshore waters
well off of Baja California Sur, with seas up to 8 ft impacting
these waters into early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly winds will increase to fresh this weekend S
of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon
trough. Seas generated by gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala
through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Hurricane Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails
west of 120W which is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of
the monsoon trough to 20N and gentle to moderate winds S of the
monsoon trough. NW swell has propagated into the NW discussion
waters. Seas will peak near 9 ft with this swell before
subsiding Friday. The large size of Hurricane Marie will
generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will
spread well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas
greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W
of 115W. By the start of next week, low pressure may form well
west of southern Mexico and has a medium chance of tropical
development early next week.

$$
HAGEN/KONARIK
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AXPZ20 KNHC 022043
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Category Four Hurricane Marie is centered near 16.9N 125.0W at 02/2100
UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140
kt. Additional strengthening is expected this evening, with
weakening forecast to begin on Saturday. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 150 nm of center all quadrants
except 120 nm southwest quadrant. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the western
Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains
in Mexico combined with Tropical Depression Twenty- Five in the
NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northerly
winds over the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through
the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing strong
gale force winds of 35-40 kt in the Tehuantepec region. These gap
winds are forecast to persist into Sat, with minimal gale
conditions prevailing through Mon. Seas will peak near 15-18 ft
during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N106W, then resumes
W of Major Hurricane Marie near 10N127W to 09N136W. The ITCZ is
from 09N136W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 14N between 85W and 103W and from 12N to 19N
between 109W and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a
weak pressure gradient. By Mon night, a ridge will establish
again over the area, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas
generated by Hurricane Marie will continue to spread across the
waters W of Baja California into Sat. Gentle southerly winds are
expected in the Gulf of California into the start of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador into the start of next week

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Category Four Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Major Hurricane Marie, a weak ridge prevails over the
NW corner of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and Hurricane is maintaining gentle to moderate winds
N of the monsoon trough to about 25N, and gentle to moderate
winds S of the monsoon trough. The large size of Hurricane Marie
will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will
spread well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas
greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of
115W. Long period southern hemispheric swell may move northward
across the equator at the start of next week.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico this weekend.
Some development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves west at 5 to 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 5 days.

$$
KONARIK
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AXPZ20 KNHC 030916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Powerful Hurricane Marie is centered near 17.9N 126.4W at
03/0900 UTC moving NW at 8 kt, and this motion is expected to
continue through the weekend. A turn to the west-northwest is
expected by Monday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. The hurricane is forecast to begin weakening later
today, and this weakening trend should continue into early next
week. Marie is expected to be a tropical storm by Sun night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the western
Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains
in Mexico combined with Tropical Storm Gamma in the NW Caribbean
will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over
the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through the Chivela
Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing gale force winds in
the Tehuantepec region. A recent scatterometer pass provided
observations of minimal gale force winds across the area, with
fresh to strong N-NE winds extending farther S to near 12N97W.
This gap wind event will persist through Mon night as T.S. Gamma
moves just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect the strongest winds
of 35-40 kt during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
will peak near 16-17 ft early this morning, then will gradually
subside to 8-10 ft by Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave that spawned T.S. Gamma now extends along 89W
N of 03N. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity
over the regional waters of Nicaragua and El Salvador, mainly N
of 12N between 87W and 91W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 10N95W to 1009 mb low
pres near 08N102W to 11N108W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie
near 13N125W to 09N136W. The ITCZ is from 09N136W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 08N E of 80W, from 08N to 12N between 85W
and 89W, from 06N to 10N between 100W and 111W, and from 12N to
15N between 98W and 103W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a
weak pressure gradient. By Mon night, a ridge will establish
again over the area, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas
generated by Hurricane Marie will continue to spread across the
waters W of Baja California through early Sun. Light to gentle
southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California into the
start of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador into the beginning of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Category Four Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Major Hurricane Marie, a weak ridge prevails over the
NW corner of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and Marie is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N
of the monsoon trough to about 28N, and gentle to moderate winds
S of the monsoon trough. The large size of Hurricane Marie will
generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will spread
well away from the cyclone center. By this afternoon, seas greater
than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W.
Long period SE swell from the Southern Hemisphere is forecast to
reach the equator by Mon.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Some development of this system is possible through the
middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward.

Another area of low pressure could form south or southeast of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this
system will be possible thereafter while it drifts near or south of
southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. Currently, marine guidance
suggests increasing winds across the offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador early next week. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook states that these systems have a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 5 days.

$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 032102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Oct 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Marie is centered near 19.1N 127.3W at 03/2100 UTC
moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within
150 nm of center all quadrants except 90 nm SW quadrant. Marie
should continue moving NW into early next week. Hurricane Marie
is beginning to weaken and will likely degrade to a tropical
storm by Sun night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the western
Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains
in Mexico combined with Tropical Storm Gamma in the NW Caribbean
will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over
the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through the Chivela
Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing gale force winds in
the Tehuantepec region. These gale force gap winds will persist
into Mon night as T.S. Gamma moves just N of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Expect the strongest winds of 35-40 kt during the
overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak near 16-17 ft
into Mon night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 92W N of 03N, moving W at 10 kt.
Weak low pressure of 1007 mb has also develop along this wave
near 12N. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this
wave from 08N to 14N between 82W and 98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N86W to a 1008 mb low pres
near 08N102W to 14N114W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near
12N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N E of 82W and from 08N to 13W between 98W
and 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a
weak pressure gradient. By Mon night, a ridge will establish
again over the area, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds, mainly
offshore Baja California del Norte. Seas generated by Hurricane
Marie will continue to spread across the waters W of Baja
California into Sun. Light to gentle southerly winds are
expected in the Gulf of California into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador into Tue.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form south or
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week, offshore
Guatemala. Gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter as it drifts northward offshore southern coast of
Guatemala. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the
next 5 days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Major Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Category 3 Hurricane Marie, a weak ridge prevails
over the NW corner of the forecast area. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and Marie is maintaining gentle to moderate
winds N of the monsoon trough to about 28N, and gentle to
moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. The large size of
Hurricane Marie will generate a large area of seas greater than 8
ft which will spread well away from the cyclone center. By this
evening, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N
of 10N and W of 115W. Long period SE swell from the Southern
Hemisphere is forecast to reach the equator by early Mon.

An area of low pressure is expected to form tonight several
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some
development of this system is possible through the middle of
next week while it moves slowly north-northwestward. There is a
low chance of tropical formation with this system over the next 5
days.

$$
KONARIK
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AXPZ20 KNHC 040915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 20.1N 128.1W at 04/0900 UTC
moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection from 19N to 21N between 127W and 129W. The hurricane is
forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward
with little change in forward speed for the next few days. Marie
should quickly weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday, with
further weakening likely through the middle of the week.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds
between a ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and T.S. Gamma
now located just N of the Yucatan peninsula will continue to
support a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale
force winds are expected to blow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and downwind to near 13N-14N through Mon night. Seas will peak
again near 15-16 ft Sun night into Mon morning. This gap wind
event is forecast to persist through mid-week. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 96W N of 03N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
12N to 14N between 87W and 96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 12N92W to 1008 mb
low pres near 10.5N102.5W to 11N113W, then resumes W of Hurricane
Marie near 12N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 06N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia,
from 08N to 13N between 101W and 107W, and from 09N to 13N
between 114W and 118W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more on the ongoing Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle
winds will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California under a weak pressure gradient. A ridge will establish
again over the area on Mon, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds,
mainly offshore Baja California del Norte. Seas generated by
Hurricane Marie will continue to spread across the waters W of
Baja California today. Light to gentle southerly winds are
expected in the Gulf of California into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador into Tue.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form south-southeast
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward
offshore of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. This system has a
low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Hurricane Marie that is rapidly weakening over cooler waters.

Outside of Hurricane Marie, a ridge dominates the NW corner of
the forecast area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
Marie is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon
trough to about 28N, and gentle to moderate winds S of the
monsoon trough. Currently, seas greater than 8 ft, generated by
Marie cover most of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W. Long
period SE swell from the Southern Hemisphere is forecast to reach
the equator by early Mon.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves slowly northwestward. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A recent scatterometer
pass showed fresh to strong winds in association with this system
located near 10.5N102.5W.

Tropical Storm Gamma located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Central
America. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions
of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 041519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 20.3N 128.6W at 04/1500 UTC
moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within
180 nm of the center NE semicircle. This Category 1 hurricane is
forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward
with a gradually reduction in forward speed over the next few
days. Marie should weaken to a tropical storm tonight, then
become a tropical depression Tue. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds
between a ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and T.S. Gamma
now located just N of the Yucatan peninsula will continue to
support gale force gap winds across the Tehuantepec region. Gale
force winds are expected to blow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and downwind to near 13N-14N through Mon night. Seas will peak
again near 15-18 ft Sun night into Mon morning. This gap wind
event is forecast to persist into mid-week. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves slowly northwestward. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Locally strong winds
are already occurring in association with this low, centered near
11N104W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 97W N of 03N, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N
to 14N between 87W and 98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to a 1008 mb low
pres near 11N101W to 13N117W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie
near 13N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 07N E of 83W to the coast of Colombia and
from 08N to 14N between 112W and 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more on the ongoing Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle
winds will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California under a weak pressure gradient. A ridge will establish
again over the area on Mon, bringing moderate NW winds, mainly
offshore Baja California del Norte. Light to gentle southerly
winds are expected in the Gulf of California into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form south-southeast
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts northward
offshore of the coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. This system has a
low chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Hurricane Marie that is rapidly weakening over cooler waters
and low pressure well southwest of southern Mexico that could
develop into a tropical depression over the next few days.

Outside of Hurricane Marie, gentle to moderate winds are
occurring N of the monsoon trough to about 28N, and gentle to
moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Currently, seas
greater than 8 ft, generated by Marie cover most of the waters N
of 10N and W of 115W. Long period SE swell from the Southern
Hemisphere is forecast to reach the equator late tonight.

Tropical Storm Gamma located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Central
America. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions
of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

$$
KONARIK
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AXPZ20 KNHC 051607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 21.1N 131.9W at 05/1500
UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm NE semicircle.
Continued weakening is expected, and Marie is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to locally strong northerly
winds between a ridge across the western Gulf of Mexico and T.S.
Gamma located N of the Yucatan peninsula will continue to support
a gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds
are expected to blow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind
to near 13N-14N through early Tue morning. Seas will peak near
15-16 ft today, and near 13-14 ft tonight. This gap wind event
will continue on Tue and Tue night with northerly winds below
gale force. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the next couple of days while the system
drifts northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states
that this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 98W N of 03N, moving W at 5 to 10
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
09N to 11N between 92W and 98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 12N90W to 09N97W
to a 1007 mb low pres near 11.5N105W to 12N112W to 12N123W, then
resumes W of T.S. Marie near 12N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to
13N between 108W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 10N between 81W and 86W, from 10N to 13N between 103W and
107W, and from 08N to 15N between 120W and 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more on the long duration
Tehuantepec gap wind event.

As Marie continues to move westward, a ridge will finally establish
today over the offshore waters of Baja California bringing gentle
to moderate NW-N winds with seas of 5-7 ft. As it is normal for
this time of the year, mainly light to gentle southerly winds are
expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days.

A broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has a slight chance of development over
the next couple of days while it moves slowly northward. Upper-
level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development by
Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador into Tue night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Tropical Storm Marie that is rapidly weakening over cooler
waters and low pressure well southwest of southern Mexico that
could develop into a tropical depression over the next few days.

Outside of Marie, gentle to moderate winds are occurring N of
the monsoon while moderate to locally fresh winds prevail S of
the monsoon trough. Seas greater than 8 ft, generated by Marie
cover most of the waters N of 10N and W of a line from 30N120W to
20N124W to 10N130W. Long period SE swell from the Southern
Hemisphere is forecast to reach the equator later today.

Tropical Storm Gamma located north of the Yucatan Peninsula is
expected to produce heavy rainfall through midweek over portions
of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan,
Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in significant
flash flooding.

$$
Ramos
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AXPZ20 KNHC 061648
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 22.1N 135.1W at 1500 UTC
moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
The 0516Z ASCAT revealed a large wind field of tropical force
winds northwest through northeast of the center of Marie. Marie
remains a large swirl of low level clouds, with the only
remaining deep convection is a cluster of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection located some 180-240 nm NE of the
center. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low later today. Winds
to 30 kt and a large area of 8 ft plus seas will continue to move
westward with Marie through tonight. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 14.2N 106W or about 315
nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 1500 UTC moving NW at
6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 1002 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed remains 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
An ASCAT pass from 0516Z nicely depicted the winds associated
with the cyclone. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and within 90 NM
of the center in the SW quadrant. Norbert is small cyclone and is
forecast to move very slowly NW through Thu then more westerly
into the weekend, and remain along the outer boundary or just
outside of the offshore waters of SW Mexico. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds have
diminished to below gale force across and downstream of the Gulf
this morning, and will further weaken to strong speeds late this
morning through early Wed. Seas of 10-14 ft will slowly subside
through Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 83W north of 01N to across
northern Panama. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to the
coast between 82W and 87W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 101W from 03N to 16N, moving
westward near 10 kt. A small cluster of scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted behind the wave from 11N to 13,5N
between 96W and 98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to low pressure near
11N94W 1008 mb and to 12N105W. It resumes at 14N110W to low
pressure near 11N122W 1008 mb and to 12N126W. The ITCZ extends
from 12N135W to beyond the area at 10N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between
113W-117W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between 119W-122W, and within
60 nm north of the trough between 117W-119 and between 123W-126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more details on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Norbert and on the ending of a
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

As Marie continues to move westward over the far western section
of the area, a ridge will finally establish over the offshore
waters of Baja California bringing gentle to moderate NW-N winds
with seas of 5-7 ft. As it is normal for this time of the year,
mainly light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf
of California during the next several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds north of
it. Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the
Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through this
evening.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Tropical Storm Marie that is rapidly weakening over cooler
waters and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Norbert.

Outside of Marie, gentle to moderate winds are occurring N of
the monsoon while moderate to locally fresh winds prevail S of
the monsoon trough. Seas greater than 8 ft, generated by Marie
cover most of the waters N of 10N and W of a line from 30N120W to
20N124W to 10N130W. Long-period southeast swell as from the
Southern Hemisphere has reached north to near 10N and between
100W-121W. This swell will continue to propagate northward to
near 13N by late Wed,

Post-Tropical Storm Gamma located along the northern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to produce heavy rainfall
through mid-week over portions of southeast Mexico, including the
Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall
could result in significant flash flooding.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 071547
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 14.2N 107.1W at 07/1500
UTC moving N at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N to 18N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 107W and 110W.
Norbert is nearly stationary and the storm is expected to move
little over the next day or so. A drift to the W to WNW is
expected by late this week. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next few days.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 86W N of 03N to western Nicaragua,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 13N between 84W and 89W.

A tropical wave is along 101W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 5-10
kt. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted along and
offshore of the SW coast of Mexico just NE of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the Gulf of Fonseca near
13N88W to low pressure near 10.5N94W to 10N99W, then resumes W-SW
of Norbert near 13N109W to 14N115W to low pressure near
11.5N125.5W to 11N128W to 13N137W. The ITCZ extends from 13N137W
to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between western Colombia and
83W, from 09N to 12N between 92W and 95W, and from 10N to 15N
between 112W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift northwestward
across the far outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico to
the W of Manzanillo through Fri.

A surface trough is analyzed from 26N113W to 22N116W while weak
high pressure is building NW of the trough. The trough will
linger through the end of the week and into the weekend with
moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds NW of the trough, and light
to gentle winds SE of the trough N of 20N. Combined seas will be
mainly 4-7 ft in mixed long period S and NW swell. Seas will
build offshore of Baja California Norte by the end of the
weekend into early next week in fresh NW swell. Meanwhile, mainly
light to gentle southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of
California during the next several days.

Strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish tonight, while associated seas of 8 to 9 ft gradually
subside. More tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the
remainder of the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in mixed long period S
and NW swell, subsiding slightly this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Norbert.

Post-Tropical remnant low Marie with a pressure of 1006 mb is
located near 23.5N137W. Convection has redeveloped this morning
with scattered moderate and isolated strong noted in the NE
quadrant between 45 nm and 360 nm. The remnant low will be
monitored today in case the convection persists. Fresh to strong
winds are in the northern semicircle of the low, along with 10 to
14 ft seas in mixed swell. A larger area of 8 to 11 ft seas
surrounds the area of winds. The low will move very slowly
westward through the end of the week, reaching 140W by early
Fri. Associated winds and seas will diminish and subside by then.

A 1008 mb low pressure area is located near 11.5N125.5W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted in the SE semicircle. This low will move
little through the next few days. A large area of 8 to 10 ft
seas in combined long period southerly and northerly swell
surrounds the low and extends across the waters S of 14N between
100W and 130W. These seas will gradually decay through the end of
the week, becoming confined to S of the equator. There is some
indication that winds near the low may increase this weekend as
it beings to shift westward into high pressure ridging which
would help to re-build associated seas.

S-SW monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon trough between
92W and 108W through the end of the week, helping to build seas
to 8 to 9 ft.

$$
Lewitsky
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AXPZ20 KNHC 081203 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 08 2020

Corrected Tropical Waves section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.2N 106.3W or
about 365 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 08/0900
UTC moving ESE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 25 kt
with gusts to 35 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows recently
developed clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection within 90 nm of the partially exposed center in the SE
quadrant and well to the southeast of the center from 10N to 12N
between 104W-106W. Little motion is expected today, with a west-
southwestward motion forecast to begin tonight into Fri. A
slightly faster westward or west- northwestward motion is
expected by this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details.

A 1006 mb low is located near 14N125W. This low center is within
a broad area of low pressure that is located more than 900 nm
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Convection
associated with the low remains limited. Over the recent hours,
small clusters of scattered moderate type convection have
developed within 90 nm northwest of the low. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 12N to 14N between 125W-127W.
Further development of this system is possible and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low
drifts north-northwestward through Thu before it begins to track
in a westward direction by Fri. This system has a medium chance
for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected

A tropical wave has its axis along 89W from 03N to 16N. It is
moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is west of the wave to 95W from 10N to 15N and within
within 90 nm east of the wave from 10N to 15N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
10N75W northwestward to across northern Costa Rica and southern
Nicaragua, then west-southwestward to low pressure near 11N93W
1010 mb and to 13N103W, where it briefly ends. It resumes at
13N110W to low pressure near 14N117W 1009 mb to low pressure
near 14N125W 1006 mb and to 10N135W, where overnight scatterometer
data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N
between 81W-89W, within 120 nm south of the trough between
114W-116W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 110W-113W
and south of the trough within 60 nm of 12N121W and also within
30 nm of 11N120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift
northwestward across the far outer offshore waters of
southwestern Mexico to the west of Manzanillo through Fri.

A surface trough is analyzed from 26N112W to 22N116W while weak
high pressure is building northwest of the trough. The trough
will linger through the end of the week and into the weekend with
moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds to the
northwest of this trough, and light to gentle winds SE of the
trough N of 20N. Combined seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in long-
period southeast to south swell mixed with northwest swell. Seas
will build offshore of Baja California Norte early next week in
moderate northwest swell. Meanwhile, mainly light to gentle
southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the
next several days.

Strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish this evening, while associated seas to 8 ft subside.
More tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the remainder of
the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected south
of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it
through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to
7 ft in long-period south to southeast swell mixed with northwest
swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure near 14N125W.

Post-Tropical remnant low Marie with a pressure of 1006 mb is
near 25N137W. Only a few small patches of rain and isolated
showers remain well removed from the low center within 60 nm of
27N133W. This activity is quickly decreasing. A very tight
gradient between the low and high pressure earlier resulted in
gale force winds to materialize in the N and NE quadrants. These
winds have recently diminished to fresh to strong speeds.
However, the resultant seas are peaking to 14 ft within about 60
nm north of the low. A large surrounding area of seas of 8 ft or
greater will gradually subside as well. The remnant low will
shift to the west of 140W by early Fri.

A large area of 8 to 10 ft seas in combined long period southerly
and northerly swell surrounds the low near 14N125W and extends
across the waters south of 15N between 102W and 133W. These seas
will gradually decay through the end of the week, at which time
they will mainly be confined to south of the equator.

South to southwest monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon
trough between 95W-115W through the end of the week, helping to
build seas to a max of about 8 or 9 ft.

A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northern
discussion waters east of 135W early next week with seas building
to 8 to 9 ft, with 10 ft seas possible along and near 30N.

$$
Aguirre
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AXPZ20 KNHC 081607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.2N 106.2W or
about 365 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 08/1500
UTC, and currently stationary. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-15N
between 104W-110W. Little motion is expected today, with a slow west-southwestward to westward motion forecast to begin tonight
into Fri. A slightly faster west- northwestward to northwestward
motion is expected by this weekend. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details.

A 1006 mb low is located near 14N125W. This low center is within
a broad area of low pressure that is located more than 900 nm
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm NW quadrant of the low.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next few days while the low drifts north-northwestward
through Thursday, and then turns westward by Friday. This system
has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the
next 48 hours.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected

A tropical wave has its axis along 90W N of 02N, moving westward
near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 06N between 86W
and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N102W then
resumes near 13N110W to 14N116W. The ITCZ begins near 14N118W and
continues to 07N140W. For information about convection, see the
tropical waves and special features section above.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Norbert. Outer seas of 8 to 10 ft will shift
northwestward across the far outer offshore waters of
southwestern Mexico to the west of Manzanillo through Fri.

A surface trough is analyzed from 26N112W to 22N116W while weak
high pressure is building northwest of the trough. The trough
will linger through the end of the week and into the weekend with
moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds to the
northwest of this trough, and light to gentle winds SE of the
trough N of 20N. Combined seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in long-
period southeast to south swell mixed with northwest swell. Seas
will build offshore of Baja California Norte early next week in
moderate northwest swell. Meanwhile, mainly light to gentle
southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the
next several days.

Strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish this evening, while associated seas to 8 ft subside.
More tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the remainder of
the forecast period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected south
of the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it
through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to
7 ft in long-period south to southeast swell mixed with northwest
swell. This swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure near 14N125W.

Post-Tropical remnant low Marie with a pressure of 1006 mb is
near 24N137W. Only a few small patches of rain and isolated
showers remain well removed from the low center within 60 nm of
27N133W. This activity is quickly decreasing. A large
surrounding area of seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually
subside Fri. The remnant low will shift to the west of 140W by
early Fri.

A large area of 8 to 10 ft seas in combined long period southerly
and northerly swell surrounds the low near 14N125W and extends
across the waters south of 15N between 102W and 133W. These seas
will gradually decay through the end of the week, at which time
they will mainly be confined to south of the equator.

South to southwest monsoonal flow may freshen S of the monsoon
trough between 95W-115W through the end of the week, helping to
build seas to a max of about 8 or 9 ft.

A set of fresh northwest swell will propagate into the northern
discussion waters east of 135W early next week with seas building
to 8 to 9 ft, with 10 ft seas possible along and near 30N.

$$
Ramos
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AXPZ20 KNHC 091534
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near 13.3N 106.1W at
09/1500 UTC moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 103W and 109W.
The depression is moving toward the northwest. A slow NW motion
is expected for the next few days. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to
dissipate by Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized as dry mid-level air
surrounds a small low pressure system located around 1000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only somewhat
conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still
form while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at about
10 kt during the next few days. This system has a medium chance
for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 95W N of 02N, moving westward at 5
to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 10N to 14N between 92W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 1010 mb low
pressure near 12N92W to 13N103W, then resumes W of Norbert from
13N112W to 1008 mb low pressure near 16N128W to 11N132W. The
ITCZ axis extends from 11N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between
84W to 90W, and from 10N to 12N between 115W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Norbert which is forecast to remain along or just
beyond the offshore waters outer boundary.

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern
and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly
4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend
into early next week.

Based on computer models, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec
region is forecast to begin by Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it the
next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in
long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell. This
swell is forecast to subside slightly this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Norbert and on low pressure located near
16N128W.

The remnant low of Marie is located near 24N139W with a pressure
of 1008 mb. Associated winds have diminished to moderate to
fresh while lingering seas to 8 ft will subside later today as
the remnant shifts W of 140W.

An area of combined seas of 7-9 ft covers the waters mainly S of
10N and W of 100W. This swell event will gradually subside
through the upcoming weekend.

A set of fresh northwest swell will reach the north waters on
Sun, building seas to 8 ft. This swell event will propagate
southward Mon through Tue, with seas of 8-9 ft covering the
waters N of 24N between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 24N W of
117W with sea heights of 8-10 ft.

$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 100844
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants of Norbert centered near 13.8N 106.7W at 10/0900 UTC
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
Overnight scatterometer data showed that Norbert has become
elongated and thus the final advisory has been issued. Even so,
fresh to strong winds in monsoonal flow along with seas of 8 to
10 ft are found within 240 nm in the SE semicircle of the remnant
position. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 300 nm in the SE semicircle and within 150 in the W
quadrant. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 99W N of 03N, moving westward at
around 10 kt. Only isolated convection is noted near the wave
axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
10N74W to 15N103W, then resumes from 13N110W to 12N117W to low
pressure near 15.5N130.5W to 12N134W. The ITCZ axis extends
from 12N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 91W and 95W,
and from 07N to 10N between 138W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for details on the Remnants
of Norbert.

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected west of the northern
and central Baja California peninsula through Sun. Seas of mainly
4-7 ft in mixed long period swell will prevail through the weekend
into early next week.

The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to
begin on Tue night and persist through at least Wed night. Winds
may approach minimal gale-force by Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it
through the next several days. Combined seas will be mainly 4 to
7 ft in long-period southerly swell mixed with northwest swell
through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section for details on the Remnants
of Norbert.

A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located near 15.5N130.5W, or
about 1500 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Scattered moderate from 13N to 16N
between 130W and 133W, however dry air continues to limit shower
and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected
to be only marginally conducive for development during the next
day or so as the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at
10 to 15 kt. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely
inhibit further development. This low has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

A trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 30N130W to
28N140W. Associated winds are 20 kt or less S of 30N, however
there is a pronounced wind shift. Also, NW-N swell of 8-9 ft has
moved in behind the boundary per recent altimeter passes. This
swell will decay as it shifts E through this evening. A new set
of northerly swell will drop S of 30N by Sun night. This swell
event will continue to propagate southward Mon through Tue, with
seas of 8 to 9 ft covering the waters N of 24N between 120W and
135W on Mon, and N of 24N W of 117W with sea heights of 8 to 10
ft Tue. The swell will subside by early.

An area of combined seas of 7 to 9 ft covers the waters mainly S
of 10N and W of 105W. This swell event will gradually subside
through the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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AXPZ20 KNHC 111524
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over northern Central America. Its axis is
along 86W N of 01N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N
between 82W and 90W.

A tropical wave axis is along 105W N of 01N, moving westward at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 11N to 16N between 95W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
10N75W to 08N90W to 1008 mb low pressure near 17N108W to 12N125W
to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N137W to 13N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N
E of 80W, from 11N to 14N between 110W and 116W, and from 10N to
12N between 125W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the
offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days.
Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia
Mon through Tue. By mid-week, a low pressure, associated with the
remnants of Norbert, is forecast to cross S of the Revillagigedo
Islands producing moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft.

The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to
begin on Tue night and persist through at least Thu night. the
strongest winds are expected Tue night through Wed night. Winds
may approach minimal gale-force.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough
while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it. These
winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4-6 ft are
expected through early Mon, building to 6-7 ft E of 85W late Mon
into Tue due to long period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated a few
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and
are partially associated with the remnants of Norbert. a 1008 mb
low pressure is analyzed near 17N108W. A cluster of moderate to
strong convection is observed within about 120 nm NW semicircle
of low center. Upper-level winds could gradually become more
conducive for development during the next few days while the
system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. This
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the
next 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Please read
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

A small area of low pressure is located over the far southwestern
portion of eastern Pacific about 1900 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While thunderstorm
activity has recently increased with the low, environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for further development.
The low will likely continue moving westward around 10-15 kt for
the next few days crossing 140W tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds are noted in the northern semicircle of the low,
particularly from 14N to 19N W of 133W. An area of 8 to 12 ft
seas covers these winds extending slightly outward. Please read
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

A new set of northerly swell will drop S of 30N later today.
This swell event will continue to propagate southward Mon through
Tue, with seas of 8 to 9 ft covering roughly the waters N of 25N
between 120W and 135W on Mon, and N of 27N between 120W and 135W
on Tue. This swell event will subside by Wed.

Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the
remainder of the forecast area based on earlier scatterometer
data. Combined seas of 7 to 8 ft dominate mainly the waters S of
10N and W of 105W. Additional mainly southerly swell of 7 to 8
ft is found S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. These
swells will gradually subside through the remainder of this
weekend.

$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 121600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure associated in part with the remnants of
Norbert is located near 18N109W at 1007 mb. Earlier
scatterometer data indicate that this system is currently poorly
organized at the surface, however showers and thunderstorms in
the area continue to show signs of organization and environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
during the next day or so. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the N semicircle. A
tropical depression is likely to form within a few days while the
system moves slowly toward the northwest. Mariners should remain
alert for thunderstorms across these waters, which will create
strong gusty winds, locally higher seas, and have the potential
from frequent cloud to water lighting. This low has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis with axis along 91W N of the equator to
Central America, is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 88W and 95W.

A tropical wave axis is along 110W from 07N to 20N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. The convection near the wave is related
to the special features low described above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N93W to 16N110W to
11N120W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 12N between 80W and 90W, and N of 08N between 100W and
107W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on low
pressure near 18N109W.

Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the
offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days.
Seas will briefly build to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia
later today through Tue.

The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to
begin on Tue night and persist through at least Fri night. Gale
conditions are possible Fri and Fri night, with seas building up
to 13 or 14 ft by Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southwesterly winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough while mainly light to gentle winds are expected N of it.
These winds will persist over the next several days. Seas of 4
to 6 ft will build to 6 to 7 ft E of 85W today into Tue due to
long period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A small area of low pressure along the monsoon trough has moved
W of 140W. Even though the low and associated fresh to strong
winds have shifted W of the area, remnant seas of 8 to 9 ft
linger from 14N to 20N to the W of 134W. These conditions will
gradually subside during the next 24 hours as the low continues
to move away from the area.

A set of northerly swell is reaching 27N. This swell will
continue to propagate southward through mid-week, with seas of 8
to 9 ft covering roughly the waters N of 28N between 120W and
130W through Tue, and N of 27N and W of 120W on Wed.

Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the
area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh trades N of
the monsoon trough and W of 120W based on recent scatterometer
data. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell dominates the waters S of
10N and W of 109W. This swell will gradually subside to less
than 8 ft by tonight.

$$

ERA
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AXPZ20 KNHC 131555
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure, associated in part with the remnants of
Norbert, is located near 18.1N110.4W at 1007 mb. Satellite
imagery and recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate
that the low has continued to become better defined, while
associated showers and thunderstorms have increased. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the NW
semicircle of the low. If this trend continues, then a short-
lived tropical depression could form today while it moves slowly west-northwestward. By Wednesday, however, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
This low has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the
next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is just E of the area along 78W from
western Colombia northward, moving W around 5-10 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N
to the E of 90W including over northern and western Colombia.

A tropical wave axis is along 96W from 03N-16N, is moving
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 92W and 96W.

A tropical wave axis is along 116W from 06N to 21N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is related
to this wave at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N76W to
11N86W to 08N94W to low pressure near 18N110W to 11N120W to
10N136W. The ITCZ extends from 10N136W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-12N and E of
90W, from 04N-11N between 99W-113W, and from 08N-11N between
120W-137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on low
pressure near 18N109.5W.

A surge of winds and heavy thunderstorms will move from near
Cabo Corrientes across the southern Gulf of California through
the early afternoon hours.

Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are expected across the
offshore waters of Baja California during the next several days.
Similar winds are expected from near Cabo Corrientes northward
through the southern and central Gulf of California Wed through
Thu night, spreading to the northern Gulf of California Fri.
Winds will shift to southerly from near Cabo Corrientes northward
to the northern Gulf of California this weekend as a trough
moves from western Mexico westward offshore.

The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to
begin this evening and persist through at least Sat night. Gale
conditions are possible Fri night through Sat night, with seas
building up to 14 ft by late Fri into early Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE-E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night,
increasing to moderate to fresh Sat night. A southerly wind surge
may occur in the Gulf of Panama tonight ahead of a tropical wave
which will move by overnight. Strong thunderstorms and squally
conditions may accompany this feature. Moderate southwesterly
winds are expected S of the monsoon trough while mainly light to
gentle winds are expected N of it through the next several days.

Mainly moderate long period southerly swell with combined seas
of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across the waters through the end of
the week into the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 28N,
with seas ranging between 8 to 9 ft. This swell will continue to
propagate across the northern waters through the next couple of
days mainly between 125W and 140W. A reinforcing set of northerly
swell will move across the northern waters by the end of the
week into the weekend.

Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the
remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to
locally fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the
waters.

$$
ERA
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AXPZ20 KNHC 141605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 23.1N 114.0W at 14/1500
UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present
within 120 nm in the NW semicircle. A northwestward motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight,
followed by a slower north-northwestward or northward motion on
Thursday. Norbert is expected to begin weakening later today and
become a remnant low late tonight or on Thursday. The remnant
low is forecast to dissipate by Thursday night. Seas currently
are peaking near 14 ft, which will gradually subside during the
next two days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 84W from 02N northward to Costa
Rica into the western Caribbean Sea, moving W at around 15 kt.
No significant deep convection is present near the wave this
morning.

A tropical wave axis is near 102W from 02N to 17N, moving W
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present from 13N-16N between 97W-104W.

A tropical wave axis is near 121W from 02N to 19N, moving W at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
10N-12N between 121W-126W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N115W to
10N132W, where it becomes an ITCZ axis from 10N132W to beyond
10N140W. In addition to the convection noted above with the wave
near 121W, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 09N-11W between 114W-116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Norbert.

Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop offshore of SW Mexico up
through the S Gulf of California by this evening. These winds
will spread northwest to the central Gulf of California and
offshore of Baja California Sur Thu, then to off Baja California
Norte Fri and Fri night while diminishing elsewhere. Seas should
remain below 8 ft with these NW winds.

Fresh to near gale N gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will
briefly diminish Thu afternoon, then return late Thu night. Peak
seas will remain near 8 ft. Winds may then increase to gale
force Fri night through Sat night before diminishing on Sun. Seas
should peak with this gale event near 12 ft Sat morning and
remain at least 8 ft through Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough laying
along 09N, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the
Papagayo region Sat night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days.
Mainly moderate - 5 to 7 ft - long-period S swell will prevail
across the waters through the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be common in the Central American zones due to
the proximity of the monsoon trough for at least the next couple
of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A moderate pressure gradient due to a 1028 mb high near 38N134W
and low pressure from the ITCZ is producing generally moderate to
fresh E trades. Troughing to develop west of Baja California
should weaken these trades slightly Fri through Sun.

A set of northerly swell continues to reach the area N of 26N,
with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft. This swell will continue
to propagate across the northern waters through the next couple
of days mainly between 124W and 140W. A reinforcing set of
northerly swell will move across the northern waters by the end
of the week into the weekend.

Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal flow is noted across the
remainder of the area S of the monsoon trough, with moderate to
locally fresh trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Seas
of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell dominates the remainder of the
waters.

$$
Landsea
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AXPZ20 KNHC 151602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N to NE gap
winds are blowing in the Tehuantepec region per earlier scatterometer
data. These winds will briefly diminish this afternoon, then
return early Fri morning. The current 8 ft peak seas will subside
some through this afternoon. Winds will increase to gale force
Fri night through Sat night, then will be fresh to strong
thereafter. Seas should peak with this gale event near 15 ft
late Fri night and Sat morning and remain at least 8 ft through
at least Mon night.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 93W from 02N northward to near
Chiapas Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-15N.

A tropical wave axis is near 115W/116W from 01N to 17N, moving W
at 15 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave.

A tropical wave axis is near 129W/130W from 02N to 19N, moving W
at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to
where it intersects the monsoon trough.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to
08N94W to 12N115W to 10N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N134W
to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is offshore
of Oaxaca Mexico from 11N-15.5N between 95W-99W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14W between 123W-134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on
the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The remnant low of Norbert is a 1011 mb low near 26N116W.
Convection has completely disappeared, and maximum sustained
winds have decreased to less than 20 kt.

Moderate to fresh NW winds have developed offshore of SW Mexico
up through the S Gulf of California as indicated by overnight
scatterometer data with the strongest winds near Cabo Corrientes.
These winds are spreading northwest to the central Gulf of
California and offshore of Baja California Sur, and will then
spread to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while
diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain just below 8 ft with
these winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough,
except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region
Fri night and Sat night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days
becoming fresh on Sun night. Mainly moderate 5 to 7 ft long-
period S swell will prevail across the waters through the
weekend. Seas will build in southerly swell Sun night through Mon
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the
Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon
trough for at least the next couple of days as is described
above.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A moderate pressure gradient due to high pressure well N of the
discussion waters and low pressure from the ITCZ is producing
generally moderate to fresh E trades west of 125W. Troughing to
develop west of Baja California should weaken the trades
slightly Fri through Sun, with the winds returning by the end of
the weekend into early next week.

Lingering mixed swell continues today north of 25N and west of
120W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across this
same area tonight into the weekend.

Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the
area on both sides of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in
mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters.

$$
Hagen
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AXPZ20 KNHC 191520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends along 118/119W from 03N to 16N,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 09N81W to
13N93W to 10N103W to 10N129W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N east of
93W, and from 08N to 15.5N between 110W and 131W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted from 07N to 13.5N between
98.5W and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near
31N130W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressure over southern California is supporting moderate
to fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of northern and
central Baja California from Punta Eugenia northward. Farther
south, with exception of a small area of strong winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes persist. Seas are
generally in the 4 to 7 ft range in mixed N and SW swell.

Winds will remain fresh through Tue night offshore the Baja
California peninsula as low pressure deepens over the SW U.S.
Locally strong winds are expected within 120 nm of Baja
California Norte and near Punta Eugenia today through Tue, where
seas will build to 7-8 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and
seas 5 ft or less will persist elsewhere.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
expected to remain northerly for the next few days and return to
the nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early
morning, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a relatively
narrow plume. Presently strong northerly winds extend only about
120 nm offshore with seas 7-9 ft. This pattern is expected to
persist through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough
along about 09N-10N and east of 95W. Seas south of Costa Rica and
Panama are 7 to 9 feet in SW swell. This magnitude of swell will
persist through Tue before subsiding. Farther north off the coast
of Central America, seas are 5 to 7 feet.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep layer trough along 136W-138W S of 25N extends south to a
surface low of 1011 mb near 19N139W. Scattered moderate
convection is presently occurring from 18N to 24N between 136W
and 140W. This low will move W of the region later today. High
pressure will then build north of 20N, supporting fresh trade
winds early this week from roughly 15N to 25N mainly west of
125W.

Farther east, seas will remain near 8 ft today near the monsoon
trough between 110W and 118W, due in part to moderate SW winds
south of the monsoon trough and new longer period SW swell moving
into the area.

$$
Hagen
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AXPZ20 KNHC 201604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends along 88W from 06N to 18N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 06N-13N between
85W to 91W.

A tropical wave axis extends along 120W from 04N to 17N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly
east of the wave from 11N-17N between 114W-119W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N81W across Costa Rica
to a 1008 mb low pres near 10.3N100W to 11N115W, then resumes
west of the trough near 12N121W to 09N135W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted near the coast of Costa Rica and from 10N
to 14N between 90W and 96W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge to the west
of Baja California and a 1007 mb low pressure over southern
California is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the
offshore waters of northern and central Baja California. Farther
south, including the Gulf of California, except for a small area
of strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to
moderate breezes persist. Seas are generally in the 4 to 7 ft
range in mixed N and SW swell, and 3 ft or less across all but
the mouth of the Gulf of California.

Winds will remain fresh through Tue night offshore the Baja
California peninsula as low pressure deepens over the SW U.S.
Locally strong winds are expected within 120 nm of Baja
California Norte and near Punta Eugenia through Tue evening,
with seas of 6-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes and seas
5 ft or less will persist elsewhere.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
expected to remain northerly near 20 kt for the next few days
with nocturnal pulses of 25-30 kt each late night and early
morning through Wed, and extend only 90-120 nm downwind in a
relatively narrow plume. Seas will peak each early morning at
7-9 ft.

Looking ahead, the first strong cold front of the season will
move across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California
Sun night through Mon. This will bring strong northerly winds
spreading across the northern half of the Gulf on Mon, with gale
force wind gusts.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough,
along about 09N-10N, and east of 97W. Seas south of Costa Rica
and Panama are 7 to 9 feet in mixed SW swell. These conditions
will continue with little change through Wed before winds
subside slightly and long period SW swell begins to slowly fade
across the region.

Broad low pressure across the western Caribbean is aiding in
producing the area of fresh winds south of Panama and Costa
Rica, and is also helping to produce very active weather across
these eastern waters east of 94W. This active weather is
expected to continue through Tue night before beginning to
diminish as the low pressure across the western Caribbean lifts
NW towards the Gulf of Mexico.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb high pressure near 32N140W extends a ridge SE to near
19N122W, and is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from
roughly 12N to 25N mainly west of 120W. Seas are generally 6-7
ft across this zone. Expect little change in this pattern through
Wed.

Scattered showers are noted from 25N to 28N between 132W and
137W, to the southeast of a deep layered upper trough extending
across the NW corner of the discussion area. This trough will
drift NW during the next few days, with weather improving in its
wake.

Farther east, seas will remain 7-8 ft near the monsoon trough
between 108W and 120W, due in part to moderate SW winds south of
the monsoon trough and longer period SW swell moving through the
area. Look for both winds and seas to diminish slightly across
this area by late Tue afternoon. Winds will freshen Thu through
Sat to the west of 130W, with seas building 7-8 ft.

$$
Torres
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AXPZ20 KNHC 231604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis analyzed along 115W from 01N to 17N.
Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the wave axis near 08N. This
system is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the low in NW quadrant. This
system is moving westward at 15 kt

A tropical wave has its axis along 132W from 05N to 18N. It is
moving westward at 16 kt. Only isolated rather weak showers and
thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 10N
to 12N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1008 mb
along the coast of Colombia near 11N75W to 08N78W to 10N90W to
12N96W to 10N108W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 08N115W, then
northwestward to 14N124W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 14N129W
and to 12N134W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 12N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to
08N between 77W-80W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between
80W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south
of the trough between 92W-97W and also between 135W-139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Overnight scatterometer data showed mainly gentle northwest to
north winds offshore Baja California, while gentle north to
northeast winds are offshore mainland Mexico. Seas over these
waters are in the 4-7 ft range, except for higher seas, in the
6-8 ft range, due to a northwest swell are present west of Baja
California Norte. Gentle to moderate north winds are over the
Gulf of Tehunatepec. These winds will become light to gentle
variable winds this afternoon.

Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico for the next
few days, with little change in seas. The northwest swell west
of Baja California Norte will gradually subside through Sun as
the culprit swell group propagates westward away from the
offshore waters.

Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to quickly
become north at 20-30 kt early on Sat as a strong cold front
moves across northern Mexico and much of the Gulf of California
Sun night into Mon. This will bring strong westerly gap winds
ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf
Sun afternoon through Mon, becoming strong northerly winds behind
the front, which will spread southward across the Gulf Mon night
and Tue. Seas may build to near or at 8 ft over the northern Gulf
of California late Sun and to possibly 10 ft there late on Mon
night before subsiding to around 7 or 8 ft on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the
southern waters through Mon. Gentle to moderate onshore flow is
expected west of Central America through late Sun. Seas south of
Costa Rica and Panama are 6 to 7 feet in S to SW swell. SW winds
are expected to strengthen early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb center well north of the region
near 39N140W extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion
area. A rather tight pressure gradient between this ridge and
significantly lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough
region is allowing for moderate to fresh trades from 13N to 20N
between 120W and 140W. Seas produced by these trades are in the
range of 6-7 ft. Expect little change in these conditions through
the weekend.

$$
Aguirre
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AXPZ20 KNHC 240930
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 120W/121W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
either side of the wave from 15N to 17N.

A tropical wave axis is along 136W/137W from 02N to 16N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of
the wave axis from 08N to 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N97W to 13N120W to
12N130W, where scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends from 12N130W to beyond 12N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between
84W and 90W, and from 08N to 15N between 93W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer data shows gentle northwest to north winds
offshore Baja California, while gentle north to northeast winds
are offshore mainland Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range,
except for 6-8 ft seas from north swell are present west of Baja
California Norte. Light north winds are over the Gulf of
Tehunatepec, but are expected to quickly become north at 20-30
kt this morning. Winds will remain light to gentle west of
Mexico for the next few days, with little change in seas. The
swell west of Baja California Norte will gradually subside
through Sun as the swell group shifts westward away from the
offshore waters.

A strong cold front will move across northern Mexico and the
Gulf of California Sun night into Mon, and bring strong westerly
gap winds ahead of the front across north and central portions
of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon, becoming strong northerly
winds behind the front, which will spread southward across the
Gulf Mon night and Tue. Gale force winds are possible in the
northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon through Mon night.
Seas will build over the northern Gulf of California late Sun to
possibly 13 ft Mon night before subsiding to around 7 ft Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the
southern waters through Mon, then increase late Mon. Seas south
of Costa Rica and Panama are 5-7 ft due in south to southwest
swell.Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of Central
America through Sun night, becoming light and variable on Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure centered well north of the region near
40N140W extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion
area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure
associated to the monsoon trough region is allowing for moderate
to fresh trades over an area from 15N to 21N between 124W and
132W, and from 13N to 17N between 132W and 140W. Expect little
change in these conditions through the weekend.

$$
Mundell
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260947
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
Great Basin and an area of low pressure over the SW United States
associated with a frontal system is supporting fresh to strong SW
to W winds ahead of a pre-frontal trough moving over the northern
and central Gulf of California. The low will continue to move E
today, and strong to near gale force northerly winds will start
to funnel across the northern and central gulf this morning.
Winds will rapidly gain gale force afterwards and will continue
to affect the northern and central gulf waters through early Tue.
However, fresh to strong winds will reach the southern gulf and
the entrace of the gulf Mon through early Wed. Seas are expected
to become very rough over the northern Gulf of California today
and tonight, with wave heights reaching 11 ft before subsiding
to around 9 ft early on Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N with axis near 126W,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
northern section of the wave axis from 13N to 17N between 115W
and 127W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N87W to 10N106W to
11N123W. The ITCZ begins near 10N129W and continues beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N to
15N between 85W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 12W between 93W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a gale event in the northern Gulf of California.

Mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest winds are across the
offshore waters of Baja California with seas to 6 ft. These
winds are forecast to continue through Wed morning associated
with a gap wind event in the Gulf of California. Strong winds are
forecast to funnel to the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight and
Tue. Seas are expected be in the 6-7 ft range during this period.
Gentle to moderate winds are forecast to dominate the offshore
waters W of Baja Wed evening through early Fri and become light
to gentle the remainder of the period.

Moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse
to strong tonight and then winds will decrease to light and
gentle speeds through Thu. The next gap wind event in Tehuantepec
is forecast to begin Thu evening. The models suggest a rapid wind
increase to near gale force by Fri morning. Gale force winds are
possible during the upcoming weekend.

Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta
and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh northwest winds are
expected Tue through Thu evening associated with the gap wind
event in the Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will prevail
mainly between the monsoon trough and just N of the Galapagos
Islands through the forecast period. Seas are expected to remain
in the 5-6 ft range, increasing to 7 ft late in the week due to
the next Tehuantepec gap wind event.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure north of the region extends a broad ridge
southward into the discussion area. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and low pressure near the California coast is
allowing for moderate to fresh NE winds over the area west of
130W. A tropical wave along 126W continue to support moderate to
locally fresh NE winds roughly from 15N to 20N W of 130W. These
conditions will slowly diminish today as the ridge weakens and
the tropical wave moves west of the forecast area.

$$
Ramos
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AXPZ20 KNHC 272136
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of California Gale Warning...a strong cold front has swept
southward across the full length of the Gulf of California and
Baja California last night and today. Sustained gale force winds
and gusts occurring across northern portions of the Gulf north of
the Tiburon Basin has diminished below gale force, and gale
warnings have been discontinued. Strong northerly winds currently
prevail across most of the full length of the Gulf this
afternoon, with peak seas to 10 ft across north portions, and 8
ft across southern portions. Winds and seas will begin begin to
diminish across the Gulf from north to south beginning late this
afternoon through Wed.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are presently no tropical wave identifiable across the
basin.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 09N80W to
13N94W to 11N133W. The ITCZ begins near 11N133W and continues
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03.5N to 09.5N E of 84W, from 08.5N to 16.5N between
89W and 100W, and from 11N to 12.5N W of 134W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 113W and
122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The strongest cold front of the season has swept across NW Mexico
and extends from near Mazatlan southwestward across the entrance
to the Gulf to near 21N112W. Strong northerly winds will
persist across much of the Gulf through this afternoon before
beginning to diminish from north to south. Seas of 6-9 ft will
prevail across the southern portions of the Gulf through this
evening before winds and seas begin to slowly subside tonight.

The strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf are spilling
through the gaps in the terrain of Baja California Norte and
producing narrow plumes of strong NE winds to 25 kt across
portions of the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, where
seas are 6-8 ft. As winds diminish across the northern Gulf later
this afternoon, conditions will also improve across these
northern offshore waters. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N to
NE winds prevail across the remaining offshore waters of Baja
California where seas are 5-7 ft. Northerly winds to near 20 kt
and seas of 6-8 ft will linger across the outer offshore waters
to the SW of Punta Eugenia and across the entrance to the Gulf of
California through sunrise Wed before gradually subsiding during
the day Wed.

Light and gentle winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Thu. The next significant gap wind event in Tehuantepec
is forecast to begin Thu evening. Model guidance suggest a rapid
wind increase to near gale force winds around sunset Thu and
increasing to 40 kt overnight, with gales continuing through Sat
morning. force winds by Fri afternoon. Strong gap winds are
expected to persist through the weekend with gales returning Sun
morning. Peak seas during this evening are expected to build to
16 ft by Fri afternoon.

Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta
and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh northwest winds are
expected this afternoon through Thu evening associated with the
cold front across the Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will prevail
mainly between the monsoon trough and N of the Galapagos Islands
through the forecast period. Seas are expected to remain in the
5-6 ft range, increasing to 6-7 ft Fri due to NW waves spreading
into the area from the upcoming Tehuantepec gap wind event.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure N of the area extends a broad ridge southward
into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon and the
ITCZ will support the continuation of moderate to locally fresh
NE winds over a belt approximately from 12N to 22N W of 115W.
Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this region in a broad mix of
swell and easterly tradewind waves. Little change is expected in
these conditions through Wed morning before shifting W of 140W
late on Wed.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 281600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building west of
a cold front is expected to push southward across the western
Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Zeta exits the basin Thu. This will
induce strong northerly gap winds through the Chivela pass and
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late on Thu. Model guidance
suggests a rapid wind increase to near gale force winds near
sunset Thu, increasing to 40 kt overnight, with gales continuing
into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist Saturday, with
gales returning Sun morning. Peak seas during the high wind event
are expected to build to 16-17 ft Fri afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are presently no identifiable tropical waves analyzed across
the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 09N79W to 12N91W
to 12N115W to 10.5N128W to 11N135W. The ITCZ continues from
11N135W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 03.5N to 11N E of 88W, and from 08.5N to 12N
between 117W and 132W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 93W and 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front has stalled this morning from near
Mazatlan southwestward across the entrance to the Gulf of
California. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
N to NW winds in the southern Gulf of California associated with
the front, and fresh northerly winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas
across those areas were around 8 ft through sunrise, and are
still likely at 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N to
NE winds prevail west of Baja California where seas are 5 to 7
ft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the area today
as the front dissipates and high pressure to the NW drifts
further NW.

Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta
and Manzanillo, where moderate to fresh NW winds are expected
through Thu evening, associated with the decaying cold front
across the entrance to the Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough through Sun. Seas are expected to increase west of
Guatemala and El Salvador later in the week due to gale force
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into the
area. Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected in the
Papagayo region Sat night.

Very active convection continues this morning across the waters
north of 04N from the Papagayo region east and southeastward
across Central America and into coastal Colombia. Ample moisture
persists across this region between to exiting Zeta in the Gulf
of Mexico and an approaching tropical wave in the central
Caribbean Sea. Look for this active weather to continue through
Thu night before shifting offshore.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area extends a broad ridge southward
into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures associated with the monsoon trough
and the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE trade winds over
an area roughly from 12N to 22N, west of 115W. Overnight altimeter
data indicated seas are mainly 6 to 8 ft across this region in a
mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change is expected
in these conditions through Thu before seas subside very
slightly.

$$
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AXPZ20 KNHC 291554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...Strong high pressure building
across the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front today will
induce strong northerly gap winds through the Chivela pass and
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Computer model guidance shows a
rapid increase in northerly winds to near gale force this
afternoon through evening, increasing to 40 kt tonight, with
gales continuing into Sat morning. Strong gap winds will persist
Saturday, with gales returning Sun morning as a reinforcing front
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Peak seas during this high wind
event are expected to build to around 16 to 17 ft Fri afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 80W/81W, north of 05N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below and
extends northward across the Caribbean between 80W and the east
coast of Nicaragua. This wave is expected move westward across
the waters E of 90W in the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 08.5N84W to
13N100W to 13N114W to 09.5N131W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N E of 94W,
from 09N to 15N between 94W and 123W, and from 07.5N to 10.5N W
of 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail west of Baja California
this morning, where seas are 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft well
offshore of Cabo San Lucas. Winds and seas are expected to
diminish slightly across the region by later today as high
pressure northwest of the area shifts farther northwestward.
These relatively tranquil conditions are expected to persist
through the weekend.

Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters south of 19N, except for the offshore waters between
Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, where moderate N to NE winds are
expected through this evening. Except for offshore the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere
through the weekend.

Winds and seas will increase rapidly offshore and downwind of
Tehuantepec tonight through the weekend as a significant gale gap
wind event dominates the region. See above for details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough through Sun, with isolated areas of fresh winds
this afternoon through tonight ahead of an approaching tropical
wave. Seas are expected to increase offshore of Guatemala and El
Salvador Fri through Sat night due to gale force winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into the area.
Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are expected across the
Papagayo region Sat night.

Active weather is expected across the waters north of 04N, from
the Papagayo region southeast into Central America and coastal
Colombia today. Ample moisture persists across the region, and
the tropical wave along 80W/81W will act as a focus for deep
convection. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually shift west
along with the wave tonight, and move well offshore by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge persists across the northern forecast waters west
of 120W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh
NE trade winds over an area roughly from 10N to 22N, west of
115W, for the next several days. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this
region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change
is expected through Fri.

South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds
prevail between 100W and 130W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Winds
between 115W and 125W are expected to increase slightly today,
raising sea heights to 8-9 ft there.

$$
Stripling
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AXPZ20 KNHC 311541
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure and cooler,
denser air behind a frontal boundary that moved across the
southwest Gulf of Mexico and is currently stationary over the
Yucatan Peninsula continues to spill through the isthmus of
Tehuantepec. Earlier scatterometer data confirmed gale force
winds peaking around 45 kt. Large fresh seas have built due to
these winds, near 15 ft. Winds will diminish slightly to minimal
gale force through tonight with resultant peak seas also
subsiding to 12 ft. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move
into the southwest Gulf by early Sun allowing for gale force
winds to increase back to near 45 kt Sun night through early next
week. Northerly swell will mix with longer period southerly
swell to support seas in excess of 8 ft well downstream of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, with peak seas building back to near 20 ft
early next week. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall is possible
across portions of Central America late this weekend into early
next week, particularly western Panama and Costa Rica to begin
with, then spreading northwestward early next week. If heavy
rainfall occurs, flash flooding and mudslides may be possible.
Refer to statements provided by your national meteorological
service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 91W from 02N-16N, moving W at
around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 1010 MB low near
12N111W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
120 nm on either sides of the axis between 92W-138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

High pressure west of Baja California is supporting gentle to
moderate northerly breezes across the Mexican offshore waters
off Baja California and the Gulf of California. Seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail in both the open waters and in the Gulf of
California. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft in the waters of Baja
California by early next week. Elsewhere, little change is
expected through the next several days.

Gentle winds persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly
southerly swell. Little change is expected.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough through Sun, with isolated areas of fresh winds
ahead of a tropical wave. Seas are expected to increase offshore
of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat night due to gale force
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec pushing northerly waves into
the area. Larger seas are expected early next week across this
same area due to greater coverage and strength of the
Tehuantepec gap winds NW of the area. Elsewhere seas are mainly 5
to 7 ft in mainly long period southerly swell. Seas will build
slightly to the south and east of the Galapagos Islands late this
weekend into early next week due to reinforcing southerly swell.

Moderate offshore gap winds are expected across the Papagayo
region through Sun before turning onshore Mon through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N. The gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressures associated with
the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally
fresh NE trade winds from the monsoon trough to 20N and west of
115W, for the next several days. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this
region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change
is expected through the weekend.

A complex low pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands is
forecast to move NE through the weekend. A weak trailing cold
front may slip southeast of 30N140W by early next week with
winds remaining 20 kt or less. Associated seas will build to 8-9
ft behind this boundary Sun night through Mon night, impacting
the waters north of 25N and west of 135W.

South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds
prevail between 100W and 140W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Minor
fluctuations in winds and seas are expected across this area
through the weekend.

Looking ahead, computer models suggest that a tropical wave
moving offshore of SW Mexico Sun and Mon could spawn a low
pressure center forming west of the offshore waters in the
vicinity of 10N110W by Mon morning, and move WNW through mid
week. There is broad disagreement among the main global models,
and confidence remains low on the exact locations and intensity
of this low pressure at this time.

$$
ERA
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010929
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area
over the Gulf of Mexico has weakened. Recent scatterometer data
indicates gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec have
diminished just below gale force. This is a temporary pause,
however, and early morning drainage affects may allow gap winds
to regain minimal gale force. Building high pressure and cooler,
denser air follow a cold front expected to move through the
western Gulf of Mexico late this evening and overnight. This will
allow gap winds to increase to occasional strong gales through
early next week. Northerly swell will mix with longer period
southerly swell to support seas in excess of 8 ft well downstream
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with peak seas building back to near
20 ft early next week. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A tropical cyclone over the
western Caribbean along with a surge of moist southwesterly flow
will support the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of
Central America into early next week, particularly western
Panama and Costa Rica to begin with, then spreading northwestward
through mid week. When heavy rainfall occurs, flash flooding and
mudslides may be possible. Refer to statements provided by your
national meteorological service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis has been relocated to near 104W from 02N-
15N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 12N to 16N between 100W and 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 12N105W to
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 11N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 121W and
123W. Scattered moderate convection from 09N to 11N between 136W
and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

High pressure northwest of Baja California is supporting gentle
to moderate northerly breezes across the Mexican offshore waters
off Baja California and the Gulf of California. Seas of 2-4 ft
prevail in both the open waters and in the Gulf of California.
Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft in NW swell in the waters of Baja
California through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, little
change is expected through the next several days.

Gentle winds persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly
southerly swell. Little change is expected.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough through today, with isolated areas of fresh winds
ahead and behind of a tropical wave. Large seas are likely off
western Guatemala, related to the gale force gap winds in the
nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas reaching 8 ft will mix with
building SW swell and spread across the area beyond 120 nm off
the coast from El Salvador to Costa Rica by late Tue. Farther
south, a combination of fresh SW winds and building SW swell will
allow seas to reach 8 to 9 ft off western Panama by tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of 15N. The gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressures associated with the
monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally
fresh NE trade winds from the monsoon trough to 20N and west of
115W, for the next several days. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this
region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change
is expected through the weekend.

A complex low pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands is
forecast to move NE through the weekend. A trailing front may
slip southeast of 30N140W by early next week with winds remaining
20 kt or less. Associated seas will build to 8-9 ft behind this
boundary on Mon afternoon/evening, impacting the waters north of
25N and west of 137W.

South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds
prevail between 100W and 140W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Minor
fluctuations in winds and seas are expected across this area
through the weekend.

Looking ahead, computer models suggest that a broad area of low
pressure could become organized by Tue a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Clarion Island, and move WNW through the end of the
week. There is broad disagreement among the main global models,
and confidence remains low on the exact locations and intensity
of this low pressure at this time.

$$
Christensen
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AXPZ20 KNHC 011603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds are
noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning with the assistance
of the early morning drainage flow. Building high pressure and
cooler, denser air follow a cold front expected to move through
the western Gulf of Mexico late this evening and overnight. This
will allow gap winds to increase to strong gales through Tue.
Northerly swell will mix with longer period southerly swell to
support seas in excess of 8 ft well downstream of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with peak seas building back to near 20-22 ft by Mon
morning. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Tropical cyclone Eta over the
western Caribbean along with a surge of moist southwesterly flow
will support the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of
Central America into early next week, particularly western Panama
and Costa Rica to begin with, then spreading northwestward
through mid week. Heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Refer to statements provided by your national meteorological
service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis has been relocated to near 106W/107W from
02N-15N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 106W and
110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 11N95W to 12N107W to
1011 mb low pressure near 11N112W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 11N
between 110W and 115W, and from 11N to 14N between 115W and
120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

High pressure northwest of Baja California is supporting gentle
to moderate northerly breezes across the Mexican offshore waters
off Baja California and the Gulf of California. Seas of 2-4 ft
prevail in both the open waters and in the Gulf of California.
Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft in NW swell in the waters of Baja
California through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, little
change is expected through the next several days.

Gentle winds persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly
southerly swell. Little change is expected.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough through today, with isolated areas of fresh winds
ahead and behind of a tropical wave. Large seas are likely off
western Guatemala, related to the gale force gap winds in the
nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas reaching 8 ft will mix with
building SW swell and spread across the area beyond 120 nm off
the coast from El Salvador to Costa Rica by late Tue. Farther
south, a combination of fresh SW winds and building SW swell will
allow seas to reach 8 to 9 ft off western Panama by tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of 15N. The gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressures associated with the
monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to locally
fresh NE trade winds from the monsoon trough to 20N and west of
115W, for the next several days. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this
region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves. Little change
is expected through the weekend.

A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W by Mon evening with
winds remaining 20 kt or less. Long period NW swell will follow
the front with building seas of 8-10 ft. This swell event will
propagate across the NW forecast waters this evening through Tue
impacting the waters north of 25N and west of 134W.

South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds
prevail between 100W and 140W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Minor
fluctuations in winds and seas are expected across this area
through the weekend.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the middle of the week as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward over the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance
through 5 days.

$$
GR
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AXPZ20 KNHC 021603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong gale force winds are
active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gales are due to a
tight pressure gradient created by high pressure building north
of the area over the western Gulf of Mexico and across the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. Winds will
pulse to minimal storm force tonight and seas will be building
to near 25 ft. Swell generated from this event will produce a
large plume of 12 ft or greater seas that will extend about 500
nm southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by tonight. Marine
interests transiting across or in the vicinity the Gulf of
Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the
affected waters. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Hurricane Eta over the western
Caribbean along with a surge of moist southwesterly flow will
support heavy to torrential rainfall across portions of Central
America through mid week. Eta is likely to cause life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain. Eta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 15
to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm) across central and northern
Nicaragua into much of Honduras, with isolated amounts of 35
inches (890 mm). Refer to statements provided by your national
meteorological service for more details.

Farther west, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
and thunderstorms are from 08N to 18N between 105W and 124W
associated with a tropical wave with axis near 111W. The tropical
wave continue to show some early signs of organization and it
already developed a 1009 mb low near 12N111W. Environmental
conditions remain favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as
the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward, well
offshore of the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance the low
will develop into a tropical depression over the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See special features section above for information on a tropical
wave with potential to develop into a tropical cyclone within the
next two days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 12N111W to
10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 04N to 12N, east of 90W and from 07N to 11N west
of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Of note, the 20-year
climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that
most gale-force events occurred during November and December
while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based on
records, the first storm-force winds event usually occurs toward
mid-November each cold season.

A ridge northwest of Baja California is supporting gentle to
moderate northerly winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Seas will build
to 4 to 6 ft in NW swell off Baja California by mid-week. Gentle
winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly southerly
swell. Seas may increase to 6-8 ft just south of the
Revillagigedo Islands by mid-week as the low pressure described
in the Special Features section above develops.

Mainly gentle to moderate NW winds are forecast in the Gulf of
California with seas of 1 to 2 ft, except near the entrance to
the Gulf of California where seas of 2 to 4 ft are expected.
These marine conditions will persist for the next several days.

Looking ahead, a cold front may bring strong NW winds to the
waters off Baja California Norte and the Gulf of California Fri
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are south of
the monsoon trough. Large seas generated by the storm gap wind
event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador overnight.

Farther south, a combination of fresh SW winds and building SW
swell support seas to 8 to 9 ft off western Panama and near the
Azuero peninsula. As Hurricane Eta approaches the Caribbean
coast of Nicaragua today and tonight, expect increasing SW flow
across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica and Panama,
including the Gulf of Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of 15N. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures associated
with the monsoon trough will continue to support moderate to
locally fresh NE trade winds from the monsoon trough to 20N and
west of 115W, for the next several days. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
across this region, in a mix of swell and easterly wind waves.
Seas are forecast to build to 8 ft across the west-central waters
by Tue, but mainly from 15N to 20N west of 135W.

A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W by this evening with
winds remaining 20 kt or less. Long period NW swell will follow
the front, with building seas of 8-10 ft. This swell event will
reach the waters north of 25N and west of 135W through Tue.

$$
Ramos
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AXPZ20 KNHC 031627
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Overnight scatterometer data
indicated gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are at gale
force, down from earlier evening storm force winds. Wave heights
in the middle of this plume remain around 23 ft this morning.
The gales are due to a tight pressure gradient created by high
pressure building north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico and
across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains.
Swell generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12
ft or greater seas that will extend about 500 nm southwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will gradually taper off to below
gale force by early Fri, as the high pressure north of the area
weakens and shifts east. Marine interests transiting across or in
the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap
wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine
conditions over the affected waters. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Hurricane Eta over the western
Caribbean along with a surge of moist southwesterly flow across
the tropical eastern Pacific will support heavy to torrential
rainfall across portions of Central America through mid week. Eta
is likely to cause life- threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain. Eta is expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 inches (375 to 750 mm) across
central and northern Nicaragua into Honduras, with isolated
amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Refer to statements provided by
your national meteorological service for more details.

1006 mb low pressure continues to develop where a tropical wave
along 115W intersects the monsoon trough near 13N114.5W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 09.5N to
16N between 113W and 119W. Overnight scatterometer satellite
data indicated that the low is still fairly elongated from east
to west along the monsoon trough, but also that nearby winds are
in excess of 25 kt. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass
indicates seas of at least 8 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions
remain favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely this afternoon or tonight as the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, and well offshore of
the coast of Mexico. There is a high chance the low will develop
into a tropical depression over the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See special features section above for information on a tropical
wave with potential to develop into a tropical cyclone within the
next two days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 07N98W to 1006 mb low
pressure near 13N114.5W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 05N to 11N between 81W and
88W, and from 07N to 12N between 119W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning. Of note, the 20-year
climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that
most gale-force events occurred during November and December
while most storm-force winds occurred in January. Based on
records, the first storm-force winds event usually occurs toward
mid-November each cold season.

A ridge northwest of Baja California is supporting gentle to
moderate northerly winds with seas 3 to 6 ft. Seas will build to
8 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands on Wed as a low pressure
with potential to become a tropical cyclone moves to its closes
point of approach to the islands and it moves west-northwestward.
Seas will build to 5 to 6 ft elsewhere off Baja California after
mid week in a mix of NW swell and shorter period southerly swell
emerging from the developing low pressure. A cold front may
bring strong NW winds to the waters off Baja California Norte and
the Gulf of California Fri night.

Gentle winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly
southerly swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the
monsoon trough. Large seas generated by the gale force gap wind
event in the Tehuantepec region are propagating across the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, mixing with SW
swell and will maintain seas in the 7-10 ft range there through
Wed.

Farther south, a combination of fresh SW winds and building SW
swell support seas to 8 ft off western Panama and near the
Azuero peninsula. As Hurricane Eta approaches the Caribbean coast
of Nicaragua tonight, expect increasing SW flow across the
offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica and Panama, including the
Gulf of Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates north of 20N, anchored by 1022 mb high
pressure centered near 27N133W. A stationary front is
dissipating from near 30N137W to 27N140W. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate NE winds over most area north of
the monsoon trough, with isolated areas of fresh trades closer to
the monsoon trough.

Seas are 5 to 8 ft in NW swell to the W of 120W, except for near
the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section, and
in an area of building seas between 15N to 20N west of 135W
related to a large area of fresh trade winds farther west. Seas
are also reaching 8 to 9 ft due to NW swell near the dissipating
front at 30N140W.

Farther east, seas are 8 to 12 ft over tropical waters east of
110W due to NE swell emerging out of Tehuantepec and longer
period SW swell moving into the region.

The current trends will persist through mid week. By late in the
week, the low pressure area will likely be weakening over cooler
waters west-northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Lingering
swell from the low will mix with new NW swell expected to invade
the waters north of 20N. Seas may reach as high as 14 ft in this
NW swell north of 20N and east of 125W, following a strong front
expected to move into the area.

Meanwhile east of 120W, gale to storm force wind event in
Tehuantepec will finally be tapering off by Fri, with related
seas subsiding accordingly. SW swell will persist however.

$$
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AXPZ20 KNHC 041638
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gales are ongoing across the
gULF this morning, and extend downwind to near 12N96.5W, with
peak seas estimated to be 21 ft. The gales are due to a tight
pressure gradient created by building high pressure north of the
area over the Gulf of Mexico and across the eastern slopes of
the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. Swell generated from this
Tehuantepec event will produce a large plume of 12 ft or greater
seas that will extend about 500 nm southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Winds will gradually taper off to just below gale
force by midday Fri, as the high pressure north of the area
weakens and shifts east. Marine interests transiting across or in
the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap
wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine
conditions over the affected waters. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Hurricane Eta is moving slowly
across central Nicaragua, and producing a surge of moist
southwesterly flow across the tropical eastern Pacific that will
support heavy to torrential rainfall across portions of Central
America through mid week. Eta is likely to cause life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central
America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Eta is
expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 inches
(375 to 750 mm) across central and northern Nicaragua into
Honduras, with isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Refer to
statements provided by your national meteorological service for
more details.

Farther west, Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 16.9N 119.2W
at 1500 UTC moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Strong convection is observed within 240 nm in
the northwest semicircle of Odalys, and 90 nm in the southwest
semicircle, while scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N
to 16N between 116W and 121W. Odalys will change little in
intensity as it continues to move WNW through today, then weaken
to a depression and move more westward Thu as it reaches cooler
waters and drier more stable air. Odalys will become a remnant
low by Fri ahead of a cold front moving into the area from the
north. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 06N102W to 13N111W,
then resumes southwest of Odalys near 13N122W to 10N125W to
08N136W. ITCZ extends from 08N136W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 06N to the
coasts between 82W and 91W, and within 120 nm SE and 90 nm NW of
the trough between 120W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Of note, the 20-year
climatology of the Tehuantepec gap wind events indicates that
most gale-force events occurred during November and December
while most events reaching storm-force occurred in January.
Based on these updated records, the first storm-force wind event
of each cold season can be expected to occur as early as mid-
November.

A modest high pressure ridge northwest of Baja California is
supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds with seas 4 to 6 ft
in NW swell. Seas will build to 8 ft south through southwest of
the Revillagigedo Islands today as swell from the Tropical Storm
Odalys enters the area, and Odalys makes its closes point of
approach to the west of Clarion Island. Seas will build to 5 to 6
ft elsewhere off Baja California after mid week in a mix of NW
swell and southerly swell emerging from Odalys. A cold front may
bring strong NW winds to the waters off Baja California Norte and
inside the northern Gulf of California Fri night.

Gentle winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly
southerly swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest onshore winds prevail from
03N to the coasts between Panama and the Gulf of Fonseca. Strong
SW winds are expected to become concentrated in a band from north
of the Galapagos Islands near 05N to the coasts between NW Costa
Rica and the Papagayo region Thu through Fri and raise seas to
10-11 ft. Large seas generated by the gale force gap wind event
in the Tehuantepec region are propagating across the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, mixing with SW swell and
will maintain seas in the 10 to 15 ft range there through into
Fri.

Farther south, a combination of fresh SW winds and building SW
swell support seas to 9 ft off western Panama and near the
Azuero peninsula. As Hurricane Eta continues to move through
Nicaragua and Honduras, expect fresh to occasional strong SW
flow across the Pacific offshore waters from western Panama to
Guatemala.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates north of 20N, with the ridge extending SE
and through 1024 mb high pressure centered near 34N138W. This
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds over most area
north of the monsoon trough, with isolated areas of fresh trades
closer to the monsoon trough.

Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell to the W of 120W, except higher
near Tropical Storm Odalys, and in an area of building seas
between 12N to 21N west of 135W related to a large area of fresh
trade winds farther west.

Farther east, seas are 8 to 16 ft over tropical waters east of
110W due to NE swell emerging out of Tehuantepec and longer
period SW swell moving into the region.

The current trends will persist through mid week. Lingering
swell from Odalys will mix with new NW swell expected to invade
the waters north of 20N. Seas may reach as high as 14 ft in this
NW swell north of 20N and east of 125W, following a strong front
expected to move into the area.

Meanwhile east of 120W, the gale to storm force wind event in
Tehuantepec will finally be tapering off on Fri, with related
seas subsiding accordingly. SW swell will persist however through
weeks end.

$$
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AXPZ20 KNHC 051633
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gales continue across
the Gulf this morning. An overnight scatterometer satellite pass
measured peak winds at 40 kt and winds are assumed to continue at
40 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be 19 ft. Swell generated from
this Tehuantepec event will produce a large plume of 12 ft or
greater seas that will extend about 500 nm southwest of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. High pressure north of the area supporting the
gales is starting to weaken, and the gap winds will gradually
diminish through Fri, diminishing below gale force Fri morning.
Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity the Gulf of
Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the
affected waters. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further
details.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Hurricane Eta is moving slowly
across central Nicaragua, and producing a surge of moist
southwesterly flow across the tropical eastern Pacific that will
support heavy to torrential rainfall across portions of Central
America through Thu. Eta is likely to cause life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central
America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Eta is
expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 inches
(375 to 750 mm) across central and northern Honduras into NE
Guatemala, while SW onshore winds are expected to yield rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) across coastal
sections from NW Costa Rica to Nicaragua to far southern
Honduras. Please refer to statements provided by your local
national meteorological agency for more details.

Farther west, Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 18.3N 122.9W
at 1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. The center of Odalys is exposed, with SW wind
shear keeping scattered isolated strong convection NE of the
center, from 150 to 300 nm in the northeast quadrant. A pair of
scatterometer satellite passes from around 05 UTC indicated winds
to 45 kt in the area of strong convection. Odalys will continue
moving WNW then W during the next 24 hours and gradually weaken
to a 30 kt post tropical remnant low late Fri afternoon as it
reaches cooler waters and drier more stable air. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N93W to 11N99W to 10N115W,
then resumes south of Odalys near 14N124W to 12N129W. ITCZ
extends from 12N129W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 07.5N to the coasts
between 84W and 92W, from 09N to 11N between 105W and 110W, and
within 90 nm either side of trough and ITCZ W of 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Overnight ship observations and scatterometer satellite data
indicated moderate NW winds across most the offshore waters of
Baja California, and gentle SW winds farther south, outside of
the Tehuantepec area. A pair of altimeter satellite passes
confirmed seas are reaching 8 ft in the waters surrounding the
Revillagigedo Islands. These seas are related in part to swell
generated by T.S. Odalys which is centered about 465 nm to the
west of Clarion Island. Elsewhere 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell
north of 20N, and SW swell south of 20N. A slightly tighter
gradient is in place over the Gulf of California where moderate
to fresh NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted.

Meanwhile, mid to upper level low pressure area over the northern
Pacific is becoming more organized, and is expected to move
along the US west coast through late Fri, bringing a strong cold
front into Baja California Norte by late Fri. This pattern will
support fresh to strong westerly gap winds into the northern Gulf
of California late Fri through Sat, and perhaps into Sun. NW
swell will also follow the front, with combined seas in excess
of 8 ft encompassing the waters off Baja California through Sun,
reaching the area near Socorro Island by late Sun. Peak seas may
reach as high as 15 ft off northern Baja California Norte by
Sun.

Gentle winds will persist south of Cabo Corrientes outside of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec plume, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mostly
southerly swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Tropical Depression Eta is centered over western Honduras near
15.1N 87.8W at 1500 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Overnight scatterometer satellite data
confirmed the presence of strong westerly winds on the southern
periphery of Eta are impacting the waters within 120 nm of the
coasts of Nicaragua and El Salvador, from just northwest of the
Gulf of Papagayo to just west of the Gulf of Fonseca. A
concurrent altimeter pass indicated seas to 10 ft in this area
off Nicaragua. Eta has started turning more to the north, which
will allow these winds and seas to diminish somewhat later today
through tonight.

Meanwhile, complex seas of up to 16 ft persist off the rest of
the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, in a mix of
swell emerging from the prolonged gale event in the nearby
Tehuantepec region, and longer period SW swell. Fresh SW winds
and 8 to 9 ft seas in SW swell persist off the coast of western
Panama and Costa Rica. Better marine conditions are noted off
eastern Panama and the coast of Colombia.

Winds and seas will diminish through Fri off Panama and Costa
Rica, and the swell from the Tehuantepec gap event will subside
as well. However, fresh to occasionally strong onshore SW winds
off Nicaragua will persist from late today into Fri, maintaining
8 to 12 ft seas with SW swell. These winds will diminish by Sat,
and seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Sun. Moderate SW
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in SW swell will prevail by Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Tropical Storm Odalys.

Ridging dominates north of 20N, anchored by 1029 mb high
pressure near 35N136W. Moderate to occasionally fresh NE trade
winds persist from 10N to 25N, outside of the immediate area of
T.S. Odalys, west of 120W. A large envelope of seas greater than
8 ft surrounds Odalys, reaching up to 480 nm to the southeast of
the storm, in a mix of SW swell and shorter period swell
generated from Odalys. A belt of seas 8 to 9 ft also persists
west of Odalys, from 17N to 21N to beyond 140W, due to a mix of
SW swell and a component of waves driven by the trade winds. No
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident.

Odalys will gradually dissipate and it moves westward across the
area from 15N to 20N between 125W and 130W tonight through Sat.
Meanwhile, a strong cold front will move south of 32N by early
Fri morning, push southward, then largely stall and dissipate
near 20N by late Sat into early Sun. Fresh to occasionally strong
N to NE winds will follow the front, along with NW to N swell.
This swell will mix with the lingering swell from Odalys and S to
SW will create seas greater than 8 ft for most of the area north
of 12N and west of 110W by early next week.

Farther east, seas greater than 8 ft in a mix of SW swell and NE
swell emerging out of Tehuantepec dominate the waters mainly
south of 13N and east of 110W. This area of seas may expand as
far west as 115W through today, but then start to subside
rapidly Fri through Sat to below 8 ft in primarily SW swell.

$$
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