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ACUS11 KWNS 261759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261759
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northern Missouri...west-central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261759Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storms are expected to form by
20-21Z from northeast Kansas into west-central Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating combined with the presence of cool
temperatures aloft is leading to strengthening instability profiles,
with MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg from KS across northern MO. A weak
surface trough should provide sufficient convergence when combined
with the lack of CIN later this afternoon to produce isolated to
scattered strong storms. Wind profiles will remain weak, and likely
favor east-southeastward moving cells capable of hail with eventual
outflows producing strong wind gusts. CAM solutions indicate
northeast KS into northwest MO as a favored area, with a secondary
area of development across west-central IL.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39519029 39269106 38949315 38669469 38779560 39619583
40189353 40579165 40849060 40829010 40468979 40078979
39519029



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ACUS11 KWNS 041806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041805
FLZ000-042030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...Central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041805Z - 042030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind are
possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is currently not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed north and east of
Tampa, with increasing cumulus noted across the central FL Peninsula
and also along the east coast sea breeze. Additional storm
development is expected in the next 1-2 hours, as heating continues
within a moist and increasingly unstable environment.

While most storms will likely be relatively disorganized, MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg and relatively cool temperatures aloft will support
robust updrafts. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow aloft may
provide sufficient effective shear for weak updraft rotation at
times, and the strongest cells will be capable of producing isolated
damaging wind and small hail. Some potential for a brief tornado may materialize near the east coast sea breeze, where backed low-level
flow and somewhat richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place.

With the severe threat expected to remain isolated and sporadic in
nature, watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 28828199 28978095 28288068 26968012 26738017 26478034
26618117 26738162 27998203 28828199



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