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ACUS11 KWNS 130531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130531
TXZ000-OKZ000-130630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 130531Z - 130630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing well-organized convective line is expected to move
out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 18 by 06Z. A downstream severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be need across northwest TX and
adjacent portions of southwest OK within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Strongly forced convective line currently moving
through the southern TX Panhandle and TX South Plains has
intensified over the past hour or so with severe winds gusts were
reported as it moved through the TX South Plains. Increased
northeastward motion has also been observed during this time as the
orientation of the line has become more orthogonal to the flow
aloft. Current storm motion is around 50 kt, taking the convective
line to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 18 by 06Z.

Downstream airmass is relatively stable in the low-level but steep
mid-level lapse rates coupled with continued moisture advection and
strong lift should still allow for enough instability to support
deep convection, particularly given the already organized structure
of the convective line. Recent KLBB radar imagery has shown low
reflectivity behind the line, suggestive of strong
subsidence/rear-inflow. Very strong fall/rise pressure change
couplet observed is also evidence of a strong, well-organized
system. As such, a downstream severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be need across northwest TX and adjacent portions of southwest OK
within the hour.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33890049 34860026 35399932 35129773 33419754 33009990
33890049



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