This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1526749006-1857-1118
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 191656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191656
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...southern Missouri through southwest Kentucky and
northwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191656Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms might continue to pose a risk for large hail
and a few damaging wind gusts across southern Missouri into
northwest Tennessee and extreme western Kentucky through mid
afternoon. The need for a WW is uncertain at this time, but will
ultimately depend on short-term convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue developing over southern MO
within zone of modest isentropic ascent north of a quasistationary
front that extends across southern MO into northwest TN. The
atmosphere in vicinity of the front is moderately unstable with 2600
J/kg MUCAPE indicated on the 12Z Springfield MO RAOB. Influx of
higher theta-e air from the destabilizing warm sector may support
further development and intensification of storms along and just
north of the stationary front, at least through mid afternoon. A
limiting factor will be tendency for a shortwave ridge aloft to
gradually build, resulting in weakening mid-level winds. However, in
the meantime, springfield VWP data show 30-50 kt westerly flow
between 3 and 6 km (near perpendicular to the evolving line segment
over southwest MO). This in conjunction with a favorable
thermodynamic environment may promote the threat for isolated large
hail and damaging wind gusts as storms develop and move along and
just north of the stationary front next few hours.

..Dial/Weiss.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 36018928 36529131 36889259 37379326 37919258 37499077
36698896 36018928



------------=_1526749006-1857-1118
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1526749006-1857-1118--

--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1556391303-1967-4892
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 271854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271854
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-272030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and the western Texas
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271854Z - 272030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to occasionally severe storms are expected
through the afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Widespread high-based cumulus have developed across the
higher terrain of northern New Mexico in the last hour indicative of
the surface based instability which has developed. However, updrafts
have initially struggled likely due to significant dry air
entrainment. A zone of mid-level moisture can be seen advecting
toward this area which will help with deeper convective development
through the afternoon. The effects of this better moisture are
likely being captured with the storms which have developed in
southern Colorado. In addition to the increasing mid-level moisture,
increasing instability due to surface heating and weak upslope flow
in northeast New Mexico will also assist with storm development this
afternoon along and near the cold front/stationary front. Moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear around 45 to 50
knots will support the threat for isolated severe storms, but
limited instability will likely preclude a more widespread threat.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat given the
mid-level lapse rates and the inverted-v soundings across the area.

..Bentley.. 04/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36980414 36940323 36390256 35770157 35180125 34560150
34210212 34130276 34280347 34980410 35660445 36680440
36980414



------------=_1556391303-1967-4892
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1556391303-1967-4892--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)