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ACUS11 KWNS 191221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191221
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-191445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Texas into northern Louisiana and western
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191221Z - 191445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage during the
morning with a few capable of large hail.

DISCUSSION...Warm advection just off the surface will become quite
strong this morning with southerly 850 mb winds increasing from 30
to over 50 kt by 15Z across the Sabine Valley. Thunderstorms were
already increasing as of 12Z from east TX into central MS, with
mainly short-lived hail cores as instability is weak. However,
elevated instability will increase throughout the day, and a few
severe storms will be possible especially from TX into LA within a
zone of strong warm advection. Ample deep-layer effective shear
along with cool boundary-layer temperatures will support hail
potential with cells embedded within a broader zone of
precipitation.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31349254 31179348 30779463 30679550 31259600 31929586
32379548 32819435 32939290 32939186 32889101 32699064
32389045 32039054 31649137 31349254



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