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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0077

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, February 07, 2019 00:50:38
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 062350
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062350
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-070545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0077
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0550 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of Upstate New York and New England

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

    Valid 062350Z - 070545Z

    SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation is expected to continue and
    spread eastward across portions of Upstate New York and New England
    tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection resulting in isentropic lifting is
    producing rain/winter-mixed precipitation across portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this evening. Winter mixed precipitation has
    been occurring across Upstate New York and has now moved into
    northern New England in the last hour or so. Mostly freezing rain
    has been reported so far across the area, but sleet will likely mix
    in with colder surface temperatures and farther north where the warm
    nose is higher and near/at freezing. The warm nose is located around
    900 mb - 800 mb and is only about 1-2 F above freezing. Surface
    temperatures are slightly warmer than the most recent RAP/HRRR runs,
    which may result in more rain than freezing rain across
    central/southern New Hampshire/Vermont. However, wet
    bulbing/evaporative cooling should lower surface temperatures, and
    freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.2" per hour are expected with sleet
    mixed across northern portions of the MCD. The warm air advection
    and isentropic lifting will be strongest just south of the
    sub-freezing surface temperatures and the lifting will begin to
    weaken later tonight and overnight.

    ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/06/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

    LAT...LON 45097426 45067274 45047151 44887071 44727023 44576986
    44326974 43916984 43627011 43267055 43107078 43127109
    43287153 43377203 43447250 43497301 43517342 43547401
    43637449 43737509 43947588 44177604 44647566 44957505
    45097426



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