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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0045

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, January 23, 2019 01:01:11
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 230001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230000
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-230600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0045
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0600 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of northern IN...southern Lower MI...and
    far northwestern OH

    Concerning...Freezing rain

    Valid 230000Z - 230600Z

    SUMMARY...Generally light freezing rain should continue through much
    of the evening, with rates up to 0.05 inch per hour.

    DISCUSSION...Strong warm air advection is occurring with a 40-60 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the mid MS Valley into the lower
    Great Lakes region this evening. Related isentropic ascent atop a
    shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface is contributing to light precipitation in a 100-125 mile wide zone from eastern IL into
    northern IN, southern Lower MI, and far northwestern OH. Surface
    observations over the past several hours indicate light freezing
    rain has been the dominant precipitation type so far across this
    region, as a shallow above freezing layer generally between 850-800
    mb per RAP forecast soundings melts frozen hydrometeors aloft. This
    light freezing rain is expected to persist for at least a couple
    more hours as the 0C isotherm at 850 mb should only gradually shift
    northward across southern Lower MI through 06Z. Ice accretion rates
    up to 0.05 inch per hour have already been observed at several
    sites, and this trend should continue for several more hours.
    Eventually, gradual warming at low levels will likely result in a
    transition to rain as surface temperatures slowly increase above
    freezing from south to north.

    ..Gleason.. 01/23/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 41118663 41368745 41678744 41718704 41958659 42298632
    42438548 42718415 42988302 43018248 42618243 42318296
    42058310 41628327 41268391 41188496 41118663



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