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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0024

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, January 19, 2019 04:27:16
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 190327
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190326
    ARZ000-OKZ000-190430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0024
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0926 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

    Areas affected...Northeast/East-Central OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 190326Z - 190430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across northeast/east-central OK during the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a bit more organization
    and increased forward speed with the storm moving from Lincoln into
    Creek county OK. This storm is moving just ahead of the mid-level
    trough with the strong forcing for ascent attendant to this system
    expected to persist in this area for at least the next several
    hours. Additionally, the storm is moving along a fairly defined warm
    front and instability gradient resulting from the low-level warming
    and moistening occurring within the warm conveyor. Shear in this
    region is also quite strong, with recent mesoanalysis estimated 0-6
    km bulk shear near 60 kt. The combination of these factors suggest
    the storm may be able to persist for at least a few hours.

    The character of the radar reflectivity and storm motion suggest the
    storm is already elevated and the greatest severe threat is hail.
    Damaging winds cannot be completely ruled out, particularly if the
    storm continues to track along the warm front. Storm coverage is
    expected to remain isolated with the prospects of additional storm
    development hindered by convective inhibition. Anticipated isolated
    and marginal nature of the severe threat suggests a watch will not
    be needed.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/19/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35969675 36279542 36239483 36039462 35789448 35399463
    35359508 35449648 35969675



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