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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1695

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, December 03, 2018 11:05:16
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031005
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031004
    FLZ000-GAZ000-031230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1695
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0404 AM CST Mon Dec 03 2018

    Areas affected...parts of northern Florida into southeastern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 031004Z - 031230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado or strong wind gust is possible this
    morning, but severe coverage is not expected to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...A southwest-northeast oriented zone of showers and
    thunderstorms persists this morning from the FL Panhandle into
    southern GA, and this has produced an effective surface boundary.
    Earlier, a storm briefly became a supercell near the FL/GA border
    but dissipated as it moved north of the boundary.

    Recently, a new line of cells has developed over the Gulf of Mexico,
    and is currently moving into northwest FL. This air mass remains
    very moist with lower 70s F dewpoints with MLCAPE in excess of 1000
    J/kg. Although wind profiles are mainly unidirectional, 150-200
    m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH.

    As these cells continue northeastward onto land, they may exhibit
    supercell characteristics at times, especially if they can interact
    with the pre-existing surface boundary with a brief tornado
    possible. Trends will continue to be monitored for anything other
    than isolated severe potential.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 12/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29968402 30388382 30598329 30798278 31018246 31028220
    30778197 30428199 30078236 29668285 29438337 29488368
    29648397 29968402



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