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ACUS11 KWNS 152140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152139
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-160345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Areas affected...Pennsylvania...New York...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 152139Z - 160345Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow will continue across Pennsylvania and
northern New Jersey late this afternoon. Snow will also continue to
develop across southeast New York and southern New England over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
in the lower Ohio Valley with anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level
flow over the Northeast. A pronounced dry slot is located across the
central Appalachian Mountains. As the upper-level low continues to
move eastward, bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue to
organize ahead of this dry slot and move northeastward across
Pennsylvania and New Jersey late this afternoon. Snow will increase
across southeast New York and in southern New England over the next
few hours as the bands move into the region from the southwest.
Strong isentropic ascent will support heavy snowfall within the
heavier parts of the bands with snowfall rates reaching 1 inch per
hour in some areas.

As warm advection continues and the dry slot moves northeastward,
snow will changeover to sleet and freezing rain across much of
central and eastern Pennsylvania extending eastward into northern
New Jersey and the New York City vicinity.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
PBZ...

LAT...LON 42747639 43007375 42667129 41677094 41387128 41197181
41047224 40827291 40507373 40347423 40187521 40117686
40147808 40707899 41687921 42437804 42747639



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