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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1645

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, November 15, 2018 01:04:03
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 150003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150003
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1645
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0603 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

    Areas affected...Central and southern Indiana...far southeast Illinois...southwest Ohio...northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Freezing rain

    Valid 150003Z - 150600Z

    SUMMARY...Current mix of freezing rain and sleet is expected to
    transition to more of a freezing rain threat into the evening hours. Accumulations of up to few hundredths of an inch/hr are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A 500 mb cut-off low, accompanied by an 850 mb low and
    associated strong low-level WAA are bringing moderate to heavy
    precipitation to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Much of the
    troposphere is below freezing across the Ohio Valley, with surface
    temperatures continuing to drop below freezing. At 850 mb, WAA has
    overlapped some CAA at 925 mb, prompting some moderate sleet, as has
    been recently observed in portions of southern Indiana. Still, with
    up to 2-3 C/hr 850 mb WAA expected across the area (per latest RAP
    indications) atop a surface that continues to cool below 0C,
    freezing rain accumulation rates of up to 0.01-0.04 inches/hr can be
    expected (with several areas along the Indiana/Kentucky border
    already reporting glazing upon elevated surfaces). A few higher
    freezing rain accumulation rates may be observed later in the
    evening in heavier rain bands that overlap surfaces that are well
    below freezing.

    ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 37528892 38688817 39358769 40118617 39678354 39138312
    38578294 37528522 36728807 37528892



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