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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1627

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, November 06, 2018 08:40:49
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060740
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060740
    NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1627
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 AM CST Tue Nov 06 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Tennessee...northeastern
    Alabama....northern Georgia...western North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 060740Z - 060845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Risk for damaging wind gusts may continue another several
    hours with convection spreading into the southern Appalachians. An
    isolated tornado may still not be out of the question, but this risk
    seems to be in the process of diminishing.

    DISCUSSION...The most vigorous convection is generally east of the
    mid-level trough axis, on the southern periphery of the stronger
    height falls, and near the nose of the plume of weakly unstable
    boundary layer air supported by upper 60s/near 70s surface dew
    points. As the upper forcing shifts northeastward through daybreak, large-scale ascent supporting this activity will gradually weaken.
    Despite the likelihood of at least some further low-level moistening
    ahead of the convection as it spreads across the southern portion of
    the Cumberland Plateau into the Smoky Mountains through 09-11Z,
    models suggest that destabilization will be weak, and it remains
    unclear whether this will be surface-based.

    Any residual near surface stable layer should mitigate the risk for
    tornadoes, but stronger convection could still locally aid the
    downward transfer of higher momentum (associated with 50+ kt 850 mb
    flow) to the surface, contributing to potentially damaging surface
    gusts. However, the intensity of the convection seems likely to
    diminish as advances into/across the southern Appalachians.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 11/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 36428437 36618301 36448158 35108252 34348408 34138512
    34408592 35078570 35488526 36428437



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