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ACUS11 KWNS 010029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010028
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-010200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...LA...southeast AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 010028Z - 010200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across much of LA into
southeast AR by late evening. Damaging winds along with a few
tornadoes are possible.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized squall line has evolved along a sharp
cold front from northeast TX to west of Houston. Several bow-type
structures are noted along the squall line along with a few embedded supercells. High-level flow is beginning to increase across this
region ahead of a progressive short-wave trough and this feature is
expected to aid LLJ into the MS Delta region over the next few
hours. Latest radar data suggests the frontal convection is surging
east in excess of 35kt and this activity should exit ww416 around
02z. Additionally, pre-frontal cluster over southeast TX should
propagate into the lower Sabine River Valley over the next few
hours. Severe threat is increasing downstream and a new tornado
watch will likely be issued by 01z.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29749396 33139299 33009130 29619245 29749396



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