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ACUS11 KWNS 312314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312314
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast TX to Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 312314Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues ahead of cold front across ww416.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is spreading across central TX ahead
of progressive short-wave trough. This appears to be aiding frontal
surge as squall line matures along the boundary, advancing southeast
at roughly 25kt. While a few supercells may be embedded along the
maturing squall line, small bow-type structures are more common due
to frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, a semi-persistent cluster of convection has been
focused across the upper TX Coastal Plain where LLJ appears to be
aiding this activity. Multiple storm mergers are contributing to an
upward evolving cluster that should propagate toward the lower
Sabine River Valley later this evening. While earlier supercell
structures are less discrete, strengthening shear will continue to
support supercells and tornadoes, especially with pre-frontal
storms.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29239759 33919506 33909245 29249509 29239759



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