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ACUS11 KWNS 061811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061810
NCZ000-VAZ000-061945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Sun May 06 2018

Areas affected...NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061810Z - 061945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk of hail and gusty winds will increase a bit with
convection this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has contributed to a deepening
boundary layer across the western Carolinas this afternoon. Per OA
diagnostics, surface-3km lapse rates are now in excess of 8 C/km
across this region and this is contributing to an expanding cumulus
field west of 79W longitude. Lightning is beginning to develop with
the deepest convection over Guilford/Alamance County region and a
small cluster of thunderstorms should ultimately evolve. This
activity will spread east-northeast with an attendant hail and gusty
wind threat. Convection is largely diurnally driven and will weaken
with loss of heating.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 34957944 36147992 36647800 36147717 35087783 34957944



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ACUS11 KWNS 150619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150618
NCZ000-150815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 150618Z - 150815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection may require a watch
issuance, although trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to gradually increase along an
axis from near RZZ to near FAY and also near coastal far southern
North Carolina areas southwest of ILM. These storms are in an
environment characterized by very strong vertical shear (40-45 knots
0-1km) and weak to moderate instability, with 70s F dewpoints and
minimal inhibition supporting MUCAPE around 1250-2000 J/kg. Though
storms are increasing, the main source of forcing for ascent remains
tied to the stronger synoptic lift north of the region, with only a
glancing influence on the discussion area currently. Convection in
southern portions of the MD area appears tied to broadly confluent
low-level flow in that area, with veered surface flow over South
Carolina and slightly more backed flow in eastern North Carolina.
Any convection that can deepen in this regime will pose a threat for
wind damage and perhaps a tornado, with convective coverage being
the main uncertainty for a possible watch issuance.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 35377890 35657839 35987740 36117620 35897551 35417551
34737649 34227762 33897800 34007859 34427919 34837936
35377890



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