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ACUS11 KWNS 091520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091519
TXZ000-091715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091519Z - 091715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually intensifying convection into early afternoon may
be accompanied by increasing severe weather potential, mainly
strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. This could require a watch
within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Near the southeastern periphery of stronger cyclonic
mid-level flow (30-50 kt around 500 mb), associated with large-scale
troughing now shifting northeast of the southern Rockies, a line of thunderstorms is gradually evolving across the Texas Hill Country
southward into the Rio Grande Valley. This appears supported by
inflow of seasonably high moisture content, which may be
contributing to CAPE as high as 2000+ J/kg.

A gradual further upscale growth and intensification seems probable
into early afternoon, as the boundary layer continues to warm ahead
of it, and activity becomes increasingly based within the boundary
layer. Despite trends toward shrinking low-level hodographs with
weakening of low-level flow to the south of the Red River, strong
deep layer shear may contribute to further organization, and it is
possible that the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts could
increase with a strengthening surface cold pool.

Otherwise, mid-level lapse rates appear generally modest to weak,
but there may also be some risk for severe hail. While low-level
hodographs appear to be in the process of becoming modest to weak,
an isolated tornado or two may still not be out of the question.

..Kerr/Grams.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29209934 30169875 30789833 31389812 31929769 32389625
32019576 30579615 29049739 28409861 28289942 29209934



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