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ACUS11 KWNS 150354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150353
TXZ000-150630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau and the TX Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150353Z - 150630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop into the early
overnight across the Edwards Plateau and Texas Hill Country region,
with isolated large hail and damaging winds being the primary
severe-weather threats. Current forecast consensus suggests severe
coverage will not warrant the issuance of a watch, though convective
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery and surface observations during
the last couple of hours (since 0030-01Z) indicated thunderstorm
development across the Edwards Plateau has been mainly associated
with forcing for ascent with frontal uplift north of the cold
frontal passage. At 0340Z, this boundary had advanced south into
northern Williamson County to Gillespie County and then westward
through northern Edwards and Val Verde Counties, with a continued
southward movement expected. An increase in surface-based
inhibition, given cooling surface temperatures, should limit the
potential additional warm sector storms. The strong or likely
severe storm that was moving east through northern Coahuila, Mexico
has weakened substantially, likely signaling the increasing
surface-based inhibition.

Meanwhile, the presence of moderate elevated instability and strong
effective bulk shear (35-55 kt) will support the potential for
organized updrafts capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds with any sustained storms. Given that the primary forcing for
ascent is the cold front, with most storms being elevated or
undercut quickly by the front, the overall coverage for severe
storms remains uncertain. Current trends in radar imagery would
suggest a low probability for watch issuance at this time, as storm
intensities are remaining low.

..Peters/Guyer.. 10/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29780188 29990218 30260193 30640133 30970038 31119928
31299858 31449814 31439786 30889752 30369762 29609879
29299907 29079983 28920050 29090069 29330095 29720143
29780188



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