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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1580

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, October 14, 2018 00:41:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140041
    TXZ000-140145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1580
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

    Areas affected...Part of central and eastern TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 414...

    Valid 140041Z - 140145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 414 continues.

    SUMMARY...Local extension (both spatial and temporal) may be needed
    for the southwest part of WW 414 and extending southward several
    counties, as a severe-weather threat persists beyond 01Z, including
    the tornado potential.

    DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery showed storms continuing to
    develop within the the southwest flank of a central and northeast TX
    MCS, while GOES-16 IR imagery indicated ongoing cloud-top cooling
    across this same area of the MCS. Although the main band of storms
    appears to be located along and near the primary southward-moving
    outflow boundary, radar trends also indicated new storms developing
    in the warm sector, immediately to the south, from Burleson to
    Brazos to Madison Counties. Objective analyses indicated
    surface-based inhibition has been increasing, given time of day
    across east TX into LA, though the environment in proximity to the aforementioned storms remains unstable with surface-based storms.

    Given the presence of a moisture-rich environment with moderate
    instability and effective bulk shear of 40-45 kt, embedded bowing
    structures and low-level rotation/tornado threat should persist
    until the surface-based inhibition becomes too strong.

    ..Peters/Guyer.. 10/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30769657 31099580 31579529 31779461 31809422 31299431
    31049470 30689489 30369556 30199614 30159656 30589670
    30769657



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