986
WTNT34 KNHC 112051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South
Carolina has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 78.8 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will move across eastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western
Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low
over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),
primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of
53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at Danville, Virginia, and a
gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) was reported at Burlington, North Carolina.
A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h)
at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surface
observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina.
Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occuring across
portions of central North Carolina and southern Virginia and will
spread across northeastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
this evening and tonight.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael
becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south-
central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva
Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North
Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening from
northeastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into the
Delmarva Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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