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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0355

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 04, 2018 21:53:59
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042153
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042152
    MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-042315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0355
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern NY and PA into portions of New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 042152Z - 042315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms are expected to continue for the next few
    hours with an isolated hail and wind threat. A watch will be needed
    soon for more widespread threat as squall line in western NY and PA
    moves east.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convection will continue across eastern NY and
    into portions of New England. Isolated hail and damaging winds are
    possible with these cells, however, the greater concern is the
    squall line in western NY and PA. While instability remains weak,
    strong effective layer shear above 50 knots will help to organize
    convection in this high-shear, low-CAPE environment. The primary
    threat from this line will be damaging winds, but low-level shear in
    excess of 30 knots and 0-1 km SRH values in excess of 200 m2/s2
    based on the 2130Z ENX VWP will support an isolated QLCS tornado
    threat. The best chance for any tornadoes will be along the northern
    edge of bowing segment where the line becomes more orthogonal to the
    low-level shear vector. Given the current line is expected to exit
    the eastern portion of watch 75 shortly after 23Z, a watch will be
    needed soon.

    ..Bentley/Edwards.. 05/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 43027524 43247185 42937126 42367106 41977121 41727159
    41527247 41077356 40857419 40757543 40947621 41547651
    42077545 43027524



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 15, 2019 00:32:18
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 150031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150031
    MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-150130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0355
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0731 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

    Areas affected...West Virginia and far southwest Virginia.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...

    Valid 150031Z - 150130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat continues across severe
    thunderstorm watch 70.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has strengthened across West Virginia in the
    last 30 minutes with several stronger cores now along with a few
    bowing segments. This can likely be attributed to the stronger deep
    layer ascent, as well as a strengthening low-level jet. This
    strengthening low-level jet can be seen on the RLX VWP as winds have
    increased 20 knots between 1 and 2 km in the last hour. The stronger
    storms are currently in the northern half of the watch, and this
    trend is expected to continue based on the orientation of the line
    and the presence of the stronger deep layer ascent.

    ..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

    LAT...LON 39398072 39528026 39547963 39177933 38307964 37637997
    37218031 36888079 36778147 36848178 37138185 37988160
    39398072



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