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ACUS11 KWNS 042031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042030
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Portions of far southeast IL...southern
IN...southwest OH and northern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042030Z - 042230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms moving southeastward may pose a threat
for isolated strong and gusty winds. A watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Limited convergence along a trailing cold front
combined with diurnal peak heating have promoted the development of quasi-linear convection along a southwest to northeast oriented
line, roughly from HSB to DLZ. Insolation has warmed temperatures
into the mid 70s to lower 80s, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and
modest lapse rates (around 6 C/km) prevalent across the lower Ohio
Valley. As such, marginal instability (250-750 J/Kg MLCAPE) has
become commonplace across this area. Still, large-scale ascent
associated with a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward
across southern Ontario is slowly decreasing. While strong effective
bulk shear of 40-50 kts may promote some updraft organization, weak
buoyancy and decreasing deep-layer ascent suggest that the severe
threat will likely remain marginal, with isolated strong wind gusts
the main risk. As such, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely at
this time.

..Squitieri/Gleason/Hart.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38488747 39248580 40048379 40238321 39778223 39238188
38618240 38168385 37748601 37658705 37658787 37788872
38098797 38488747



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ACUS11 KWNS 142321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142321
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Western Pennsylvania and far southwest New York

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

Valid 142321Z - 150015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across tornado watch. The
highest severe weather potential is across northern Pennsylvania and
far southwest New York.

DISCUSSION...A squall line has now become well developed in western Pennsylvania and is starting to accelerate eastward. This line of
storms will pose a threat for damaging winds as it moves east.
Isolated embedded mesovorticies are possible in the line, but the
low-level shear vector remains mostly parallel to the line which
should tamper a more widespread threat. The highest tornado
potential will be along and near the warm front in northern
Pennsylvania and southern New York. Currently, the strongest storm
in the band is located along the warm front and is showing at least
broad rotation. This storm and any that develop near it will likely
pose the greatest tornado threat for the next few hours.

..Bentley.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 42118034 42407948 42807876 42857790 42637748 41777701
40887725 40487860 40407978 40338050 40388102 42118034



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