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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1556

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, October 10, 2018 08:45:52
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100845
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100845
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1556
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

    Areas affected...central and eastern FL Panhandle...western north FL...southwest GA...extreme southeast AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

    Valid 100845Z - 101115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Mini supercells are becoming increasingly likely early
    this morning as the outer convective bands of Hurricane Michael move
    ashore. A tornado risk will accompany the stronger/more persistent mesocyclones/circulations.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows the northern outer convective band
    of Hurricane Michael approaching the central FL Panhandle coast and
    this band will move ashore during the next 1-2 hours. The first
    several weak quasi-discrete convective elements are near
    Apalachicola as of 430am EDT/330am CDT. This activity is on the
    northwest arc of a band moving northward into Apalachee Bay.

    The 06z TLH and TBW observed soundings both showed ample buoyancy
    (750-900 J/kg MLCAPE). Time series of KTLH VAD data between the
    0800Z-0830Z shows a substantial increase (15 kt) in 0-1 km shear
    with 50 kt flow evident at 1 km. As the mini supercells move
    ashore, a tornado risk will probably develop this morning and
    initially focus near Apalachicola, then spread inland and farther
    east later this morning.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 10/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30188591 31098559 31538505 31508436 30238278 29008239
    28628330 29628418 29358516 29488552 30188591



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