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ACUS11 KWNS 210345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210345
WIZ000-210445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 385...

Valid 210345Z - 210445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 385 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts remain possible over the next 1-2
hours, but downstream watch issuance should not be needed.

DISCUSSION...A fairly solid line of strong to locally severe
convection is moving east around 45-55 mph across eastern parts of
Watch 385 late this evening. Although this band of storms has been
progressing into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, surface temperatures have slowly warmed ahead of the line. Adjusting the
low-level 00Z GRB profile for current conditions suggests adequate
downward momentum transport should be maintained where surface
temperatures are near/above 70. Considering the strength of flow
just above the surface (e.g., GRB VWP showing 50-60 kt around 1-2 km
ARL), isolated damaging gusts will remain possible. However, the
marginal nature of the thermodynamic environment should preclude
downstream watch issuance.

..Picca.. 09/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 44658989 44738894 44478772 44118765 43528822 43368958
43379048 43499076 44658989



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