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ACUS11 KWNS 030101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030100
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...Northwest MO...Southern IA...Far West-Central KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 65...

Valid 030100Z - 030230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 65 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts as well as embedded
tornadoes continues across Tornado Watch 65.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized MCS continues to progress northeastward
into far northwestern MO. Recent surface observations from FNB (near
the NE/KS/MO border intersection) reported a 47 kt gust as the
northern end of the MCS moved through. Strong gusts will remain
possible as the system moves across northern MO/southern IA. Frontal circulations attendant to the stationary front draped across
southern IA (from DVN southwestward to near FNB) may augment the
downdrafts associated the convective line, leading to slightly
higher threat for damaging wind gusts along the front.

Farther south, cold pool amalgamation appears to be taking place
between the more northerly MCS and the one that progressed across
central KS. Locally enhanced threat for damaging wind gusts (and
perhaps a tornado) exists near the inflection point of these newly
joined convective lines (near Coffey and Osage counties in KS). In
this area, remnant meso-low associated with the book-end vortex of
the convective line could augment low-level shear and/or briefly
enhance updrafts.

..Mosier.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 40729547 41099498 41549327 41489250 41169221 40529211
39229226 38929236 38699258 38469288 38259327 38119364
37979426 37959470 37959580 38289605 39489563 40729547



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ACUS11 KWNS 132039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132039
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-132215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas...western and northern Louisiana...western Mississippi and southeast Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...54...

Valid 132039Z - 132215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53, 54 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe weather potential continues to gradually ramp up.
This appears likely to include a few supercells with increasing
potential for a strong tornadoes through 5-6 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Gust front continues to advance eastward around 40 kt,
into the Sabine Valley and upper Texas coast, accompanied by a
narrow broken line of intense convective development. This activity
is preceded by scattered discrete storm development, and an evolving
cluster of storms centered around the Monroe LA area.

It appears that severe weather potential, including potentially
damaging wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes, will maximize in a
corridor near/north of Natchitoches through the Monroe LA area
between now and 22-23Z.

20Z surface observations indicate that rapid strong 2-hour surface
pressure falls have become focused across the Monroe LA into Greenville/Vicksburg MS vicinity, where further boundary layer
destabilization associated with warming and moistening may support
intensifying boundary-layer based thunderstorm development during
the next few hours. Beneath a 50 kt southerly 850 mb jet, large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs will support increasing
potential for tornadoes. A couple could be strong.

..Kerr.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 33459126 33229052 32649022 32089022 31489038 31329109
31109189 30109288 29829381 29719466 30629369 31619338
32279361 32859386 33039274 33479135 33459126



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