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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, September 01, 2018 21:52:47
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    ACUS11 KWNS 012152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012152
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1403
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 012152Z - 012245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A sporadic wind threat will exist with thunderstorm
    activity over the next hour or so. A WW issuance is not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has recently organized into an expansive
    linear segment along the NM/TX border region over the past hour or
    so, with strong to severe wind gusts reported (including a 64 mph
    gust at Clovis, NM an hour and a half ago). These storms are in a
    marginally unstable environment, although very steep (9C/km)
    low-level lapse rates and enhancement of mid-level flow (in tandem
    with a weak mid-level MCV over east-central NM) is supporting forward-propagation especially on the northern end of this segment
    (nearer to Clovis). Local enhancement of the wind threat may also
    exist in this region given downward-momentum-transfer processes.
    High-res guidance is not particularly bullish with regard to
    persistence of this linear segment over time, although overall
    organization of the complex and weak downstream instability suggests
    potential for storms to reach the I-27 area near/south of Amarillo
    over the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Cook.. 09/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35570297 35900252 36150188 36070142 35600107 34800115
    33830176 33310248 33670323 34630338 35570297



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