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ACUS11 KWNS 262052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262051
WIZ000-262215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Areas affected...Central/Southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262051Z - 262215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown episodic updraft
strengthening with the elevated line of storms moving northeastward
through central WI. Thermodynamic environment downstream of this
line has been modifying but current trends suggest this line will
soon outrun the more unstable air, particularly on the northern end.
Even so, continued warm-air advection will likely allow for storm persistence/redevelopment as they continue eastward. Redevelopment
will be favored along the southern flank. Some isolated hail is
possible within the strongest storms.

Strong thunderstorms have also recently developed farther south
across south-central WI. These storms are more firmly rooted within
the instability axis, although current storm character suggests they
are presently still elevated. Even if these storms do not become
surface-based, the low-level moisture is deep enough to support
strong instability and the potential for updrafts capable of both
isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Relatively weak
low-level flow suggests a relatively low tornado threat.

Additional development is possible behind these lines, particularly
across southern WI. Kinematic environment may be a bit more
favorable later this afternoon/evening as low-level flow
strengthens.

..Mosier/Dial.. 08/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 42599032 43409013 44059037 44489077 45159140 45138929
43648823 42618848 42599032



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