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ACUS11 KWNS 172009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172008
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Areas affected...TX Panhandle...Northwest TX...Far Northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 172008Z - 172215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed in the vicinity
of a weak surface low centered east-northeast of AMA as well as
along a remnant boundary left over from thunderstorms yesterday
evening. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated near
these features and any an outflow emanating from the ongoing storms. Instability throughout the region is relatively modest (i.e. MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on the latest mesoanalysis) and vertical
shear is very weak. Resulting lack of thunderstorm organization
should preclude a severe threat widespread enough to merit a watch.
Even so, high-based character of these storms amidst a deeply mixed
boundary layer may support a few strong wind gusts. Hail is also
possible, particularly within the early stages of newly developing
updrafts.

..Mosier/Dial.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36760284 36510142 35150000 34029982 33690144 35380253
35930356 36760284



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