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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1283

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 13, 2018 21:52:43
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 132152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132152
    ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1283
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 132152Z - 132345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are still
    possible with a cluster of storms gradually progressing east along
    the Red River in southeast OK.

    DISCUSSION...The meteorological environment has not changed much as
    described in MCD 1282, with the risk for a brief tornado and locally
    damaging winds gradually shifting east across southeast OK. As of
    2145Z, leading edge of a storm cluster extends from Pontotoc County
    OK to Fannin County TX. Remnant outflow boundary/effective warm
    front lies west/east along the Red River into southwest AR. Light east/southeast surface winds north of this boundary beneath around
    40-kt 850-700 mb south/southwesterlies is likely yielding low-level
    shear adequate for a brief tornado and embedded wet microbursts amid
    2-2.25" precipitable water values. While this risk is below the
    threshold for warranting a watch, this marginally supportive
    environment for a couple severe storms may persist through about
    01-02Z.

    ..Grams.. 08/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34809655 35009611 35109575 35119513 34889461 34529442
    34069451 33859471 33689555 33709613 33859609 34399610
    34809655



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