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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1262

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 08, 2018 08:02:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080802
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080802
    OKZ000-080930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1262
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0302 AM CDT Wed Aug 08 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of western/central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 080802Z - 080930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and gusty
    winds will be possible through sunrise. Watch issuance is not
    expected, though.

    DISCUSSION...Modest, but increasing warm advection around 850-700mb
    is aiding the development of scattered thunderstorms across parts of
    northwest and central Oklahoma early this morning. These updrafts
    are likely rooted above a low-level dry layer observed in the 00Z
    OUN sounding. As such, isolated hail may be the primary threat with
    any stronger cores this morning, given sufficient elevated CAPE and
    brisk upper-level west/northwesterly flow. Pockets of gusty winds
    (capable of localized wind damage) may be possible as well, owing to
    residual steep lapse rates atop a shallow surface stable layer.
    Rather weak flow is noted around 5-6 km AGL on recent KTLX VWP data,
    though. Therefore, stronger cores should remain transient in nature,
    limiting the overall severe threat.

    ..Picca/Edwards.. 08/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34359786 34969894 36199978 36759994 36969980 36979860
    35909711 35389607 35079561 34679559 34229610 34229680
    34359786



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