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ACUS11 KWNS 071900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071859
COZ000-072100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018
Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 071859Z - 072100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms, including isolated
supercells, are expected to form near and just east of the higher
terrain by late afternoon. This may impact the urban corridor from
Denver to Pueblo as early as 2-4 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...Convection appears to be in the process of initiating
across the Colorado Rockies in response to daytime heating and
associated steepening of lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.
Low-level moisture along and to the immediate east of the higher
terrain appears sufficient to support moderately large CAPE up to
around 2000 J/kg, and latest objective analysis suggests that
inhibition is already becoming negligible near the Denver metro
area. Similar trends are likely within the next hour or two farther
to the south, across the Colorado Springs and Pueblo areas. As this
continues, thunderstorms are expected to initiate and intensify as
early as the 20-22Z time frame.
In the presence of strong deep layer shear, particularly to the
south of the Palmer Ridge, the environment likely will become
conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. These will be
accompanied by a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts,
and perhaps a brief tornado or two, while tending to gradually
propagate southeastward off the higher terrain through early
evening.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/07/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40140532 40540499 40740435 40600391 40370366 39090316
37720258 37020326 37010398 37330452 39050514 39720543
40140532
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