• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1257

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 07, 2018 19:00:33
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071900
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071859
    COZ000-072100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1257
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 071859Z - 072100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms, including isolated
    supercells, are expected to form near and just east of the higher
    terrain by late afternoon. This may impact the urban corridor from
    Denver to Pueblo as early as 2-4 PM MDT.

    DISCUSSION...Convection appears to be in the process of initiating
    across the Colorado Rockies in response to daytime heating and
    associated steepening of lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.
    Low-level moisture along and to the immediate east of the higher
    terrain appears sufficient to support moderately large CAPE up to
    around 2000 J/kg, and latest objective analysis suggests that
    inhibition is already becoming negligible near the Denver metro
    area. Similar trends are likely within the next hour or two farther
    to the south, across the Colorado Springs and Pueblo areas. As this
    continues, thunderstorms are expected to initiate and intensify as
    early as the 20-22Z time frame.

    In the presence of strong deep layer shear, particularly to the
    south of the Palmer Ridge, the environment likely will become
    conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. These will be
    accompanied by a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts,
    and perhaps a brief tornado or two, while tending to gradually
    propagate southeastward off the higher terrain through early
    evening.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/07/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40140532 40540499 40740435 40600391 40370366 39090316
    37720258 37020326 37010398 37330452 39050514 39720543
    40140532



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