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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1218

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, August 02, 2018 15:46:55
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021546
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021546
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-021745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1218
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1046 AM CDT Thu Aug 02 2018

    Areas affected...northern VA...MD...southeast PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 021546Z - 021745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of localized strong
    gusts (40-50 mph) are possible and pockets of wind damage may
    result. The expected magnitude and coverage of the wind damage
    threat will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field east of
    the higher terrain in the Mid-Atlantic states with an elongated
    convective gust front/differential heating boundary extending from
    northwest NC north-northeastward into southeast PA. The airmass to
    the east of the developing convection over northern and central VA
    is warming into 80s with low-middle 70s dewpoints. The 12Z Dulles,
    VA raob showed a moist boundary layer but a poor 700-500mb lapse
    rate (5.1 degrees C/km). Modifying surface conditions for midday
    and expected afternoon conditions yields 400-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
    (objective analysis may be analyzed too high by 500 J/kg). The KLWX
    VAD shows modest flow in the lowest few km but 30-45kt flow in the
    3-6km AGL layer. The combination of weak buoyancy, moist
    conditions, and a wind profile supportive of some cold pool/storm
    organization, all suggest multicells---several of which may pose a
    risk for localized strong gusts (40-50mph) and potentially
    intermittent pockets of wind damage.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 08/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38297809 39467731 40707597 40807521 40407478 40067503
    39097610 38487685 37847741 37827791 38297809



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