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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1210

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 31, 2018 17:51:42
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    ACUS11 KWNS 311751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311751
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-312015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1210
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama...Northwest
    Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 311751Z - 312015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
    afternoon over parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. A few of
    the stronger cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Poor
    convective organization suggests a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows a zone of full sunshine
    and rapid heating from east-central MS, across central AL, into
    northwest GA. Temperatures in this zone have warmed to near 90F
    with steep low-level lapse rates developing. Ample low-level
    moisture, coupled with the heating, is resulting in moderate MLCAPE
    values of over 2000 J/kg and little cap. Given recent trends in the
    cumulus field over this region, scattered thunderstorm development
    is likely in the next 1-2 hours. Wind fields near the surface are
    weak, but 20-30 knot flow above 3km AGL may be sufficient for the
    strongest cells to transfer momentum downward, given the steep
    low-level lapse rates. Gusty and locally damaging wind gusts are
    expected in the strongest cores. Due to the disorganized nature of
    the convection, a watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32778506 31638758 31188941 32768941 34588640 34048481
    32778506



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