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ACUS11 KWNS 282018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282017
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Wyoming into southwest South
Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 282017Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across
the region through late afternoon, with a commensurate increase in
the potential for large hail (some possibly 2+" in diameter),
damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. Watch issuance is expected
shortly.

DISCUSSION...Under the influence of a mid/upper speed max over the
region, convection has slowly deepened along the higher terrain of
Wyoming this afternoon. Aided by continued insolation and moist
upslope flow to the east, cells will further intensify as they
expand across lower elevations and into a corridor of 1000-1500+
J/kg MLCAPE. KRIW VWP data and 18-19Z regional soundings exhibit
ample uni-directional shear above 700mb, suggesting splitting
supercells and small bowing segments may be the favored mode
evolution through early evening.

Steep 700-500mb lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will likely
yield organized, rotating updrafts capable of efficient hail growth
in both size (2+" possible) and number (some cells could produce
accumulating hail). Severe winds will also be a threat, especially
as cells grow upscale later this evening. Lastly, greater
boundary-layer moisture over eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle may combine with southeasterly surface winds to foster a
couple tornadoes late this afternoon into this evening. As a result,
watch issuance is expected shortly.

..Picca/Grams.. 07/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 41180257 40930281 40890504 40970627 41110641 41670681
41890692 43760780 44350782 44650726 44560650 44110396
43750335 42920269 41500252 41180257



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