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ACUS11 KWNS 272323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272323
KSZ000-COZ000-280100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Areas affected...southeast Wyoming...southwest Nebraska...eastern
Colorado and western Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 315...

Valid 272323Z - 280100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a couple tornadoes, isolated large hail, and
damaging wind will persist across WW 315 next couple hours. A more
substantial severe/damaging wind threat may evolve over the
southeastern portion of WW 315 and into severe thunderstorm watch
317 from east central Colorado through western KS into mid-evening.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening, numerous storms are developing
along a what appears to be a convectively reinforced boundary from
north central KS into northeast CO. Mostly discrete supercell
structures persist over KS. However, there has been a tendency for
storms to congeal into a small cluster across northeast CO. The
atmosphere across southeast CO into western KS remains moderately
unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and is weakly capped. This along
with a strengthening southerly nocturnal low-level jet will continue
to support development along the consolidated outflows, and tendency
should be for storms to grow upscale into a southward-advancing MCS.
While large hail, and a couple tornadoes remain possible in the
short term, greatest severe threat should transition to damaging
wind.

Farther north across the remainder of tornado watch 315 from
southeast WY into western NE and far northeast CO, much of the
boundary layer has been stabilized by convective outflow. However,
latest objective analysis indicates the presence of moderate MUCAPE
for parcels lifted from above the surface layer. Therefore storms
over southeast WY will remain capable of producing mainly large hail
as they move southeast and become elevated over top of the stable
layer next couple hours.

..Dial.. 07/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 37689925 37590105 38480275 39290275 39160040 38829932
37689925



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