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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1173

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 27, 2018 18:06:48
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 271806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271806
    MEZ000-272000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1173
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of central and northern ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 271806Z - 272000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of wind damage and marginally severe
    hail will continue to move over the area this afternoon. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed and persisted on
    the eastern edge of a cloud shield, with some forcing for ascent
    provided by the right entrance region of a mid-to-upper level jet
    crossing the area. Deep-layer shear has been sufficient to support
    some supercell/bowing characteristics over northern Somerset county
    the last half hour, which could pose the risk for marginally severe
    hail and damaging wind in the next hour. Additional organized modes
    are possible with the additional storms lining up to the southwest
    of the current supercell. However, rather weak
    instability/mid-level lapse rates are expected to temper the overall
    severe threat over this area compared to areas farther southwest in
    which Watches were issued. Therefore it is not clear if a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will be needed over this area, but trends in
    storm organization and destabilization over the cloud-free areas
    will be monitored closely for an increase in overall severe
    potential that may require a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    ..Coniglio/Grams.. 07/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 46376788 45886803 45316841 45016865 44846905 44956941
    45226991 45497024 45987016 46716976 47116896 47166883
    47116807 46376788



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