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ACUS11 KWNS 262031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262030
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-262230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern OH...northwestern PA...and far southwestern NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262030Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that move into the area in the next two
hours will continue to pose a threat for isolated wind damage and a
few severe wind gusts, but the overall threat should be low enough
to prevent the need for a Watch.

DISCUSSION...Substantial forcing for ascent and sufficient
deep-layer shear has maintained a line of scattered thunderstorms
and a few transient bows/supercells from MI into southern Ontario.
The more substantial severe threat will be over the eastern part of
the MCD area, where temperatures as high as the mid-to-upper 80s
indicate sufficient low-level lapse rates are in place and will
maintain severe wind potential with the stronger downdrafts and more
organized structures as storms move onshore. Furthermore, some wind
damage is possible with an outflow boundary that is showing signs of
becoming organized the last half hour in KCLE 88D and should
continue to push east and southeast ahead of the storms.

The rapid decrease in forced ascent with southern extent noted in
the previous MCD has limited thunderstorm generation along the
portion of the front in northwestern IN into northwestern OH,
although a recent increase in coverage and intensity has been noted
in the last half hour. Slightly higher MLCAPE and deep-layer shear
over this area should maintain the threat for some damaging wind
with 40-50 kt gusts. However, the overall threat is expected to
remain low enough in both areas to prevent the need for a Watch.

..Coniglio/Hart.. 07/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 42338064 42567983 42517896 42297874 41847865 41397934
41247969 41267979 40858137 40408343 40258412 40218474
40168523 40238563 40528569 40878553 41218482 41458427
41548384 41648365 41968219 42338064



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